Q4 2025 Earnings Call — March 10, 2026
Ron Epstein (Bank of America): Hey, good morning, and thanks for all the detail on the call. Dylan, I was wondering if you could just maybe go into just some more detail on what really prompted the revenue guide and what you're feeling really comfortable about to do that.
Dylan (Executive): I appreciate it, Ron. Good to hear from you. So a couple of points I would make. First of all, it's a terrific environment for our products and services in general. Certainly defense spending, as we know, is on the increase. But probably more importantly than that, Structurally, the way the Department of War is procuring products and services is evolving, and it's really playing to our strengths. It's really leaning into the innovation side of things. Everything is being challenged in terms of legacy programs versus new advanced technologies. So that's playing directly into our strengths. It's a great environment, record pipeline, record backlog. And then if I... Dive deeper into the demand signals. It's really across the board. It's everything from our advanced electronics capability, which is really seminal to a lot of these programs. We're seeing the demand signal very, very strong in propulsion on multiple programs factoring into Golden Dome. The energetics business that we just acquired, we're seeing huge demand signals on that as well as the Department of War looks to replenish their stockpiles. And then I would say also on communications, sensing, and data processing, huge demand signals on that as well. So it's really across the board, and that's why we have the conviction, based upon the record pipeline, based upon the record backlog, to raise revenue guidance into the year.
And then maybe just kind of as a follow-up to that on Starlab with – a NASA administrator set and things seeming more stable on the top of NASA. When would you expect a down select decision on the Starlab?
Dylan (Executive): Definitely this year, Ron. We still anticipate a down select this year. To be more precise, it's difficult to say. We would anticipate the RFP is going to come out in the next 60 days or so, and basing that on language that was in the NASA authorization bill that just passed committee. But if you figure, you know, roughly, I don't know, four to five months for selection once that RFP is out, then that would be sort of late summer, early fall. But I would definitely anticipate selection within calendar year 2026.
Ron Epstein (Bank of America): Got it. Got it. Thank you very much. I'll jump back in the queue.
Management: Thank you, Ron.
Your next question comes from the line of Miles Walton with Wolf Research.
Miles Walton (Wolf Research): Thanks. Maybe still, you gave us a number of the moving pieces on the EBITDA walk. Could you maybe flesh that out if you want to, to get to sort of a range? And then relating to the higher CapEx, we've seen a lot of the missile providers find a way to get what are effectively advances, but basically higher milestone payments with the CapEx expenditures to lessen the load on free cash flow. Could you touch on that as well?
Management: Miles, I'll take that first one. Just ask you to repeat the second question for me. But from an EBITDA perspective, you're 100% right. We are guiding to an EBITDA loss in 2026. It shouldn't come as a surprise. We continue to see tremendous opportunity to grow our business, invest in our business. So as part of that, we're accelerating a significant amount of our own internally funded research and development. We know that there's a strong signal for demand for our product, for innovative solutions that we've already have and are contracted, and the next generation of those. And so we're going to continue to invest in growing our business. We see a strong signal, as Dylan mentioned earlier, from the marketplace that that's going to continue. It's not just a short-term duration. So we're going to continue to invest in our business here in 2026. Important, too, is as we start to scale and grow through the back half of this year, we anticipate to still, if you want to achieve our longer-term aspirations of being EBITDA positive in 2027, be free cash flow positive in 2028. And so that's, I think, a really important element to make sure that investors and analysts alike understand. We are committed. In fact, if anything, we're enthused with the increasing demand for our product and see opportunity to actually potentially achieve some of those targets earlier than we had previously anticipated, despite our investment here in 2026.
Dylan (Executive): Okay. And Miles, just... Yeah, go ahead. Sorry, it's Dylan. I think just to touch on your second part of your question, if I understood it correctly, we're seeing tremendous demand on the propulsion missile defense side across multiple programs. So I think, you know, part of what I would want to communicate on that is, in addition to Next Generation Interceptor, our technology is quite relevant to other programs. And, you know, whether it's THAAD or some of these others. And so two things are happening. One is our technology continues to be relevant to be expected on those programs. And then the second part is the demand for those, let's say the quantities under those programs are increasing, given the geopolitical circumstances in the world. And then touching on another part of your question, which is, is there non-dilutive funding and or milestone payments available for these programs? The answer to that is yes. And we're absolutely driving that and expect some additional detail and announcements on that as we roll forward into 2026. But right now, we're not communicating any of that quite yet. We're not in a position to do so. But you're absolutely right. There is a lot of non-dilutive funding available to accelerate not only these programs, but the quantities on these programs. So we're very optimistic that that happens. You know, that's going to be very beneficial as we look to scale our propulsion technology as well.
Miles Walton (Wolf Research): Yeah, that was the question, Dylan. Thank you. And just one follow-up, if I could. The Starlab percentage ownership at this point by Voyager following the fundraising, where does that sit today?
Management: I believe we can get you an exact number, Miles, but I believe we're sitting at about 60%.
Miles Walton (Wolf Research): Yeah, it's right. a precise number. That's perfect. Thank you.
Management: Sure. Thanks, Miles.
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JP Morgan.
Seth Seifman (JP Morgan): Good morning. This is Rock on for Seth. Good morning. How should we think about growth in defense and national security next year? Should NGI remain the main growth driver, or are there other growth drivers that should be called out?
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, in 26? Yeah, no, it's really across the board. So, NGI for sure on the propulsion side of things, that's a big part of it. I wish I could give you more specificity on the Golden Dome in general, but there are a lot of programs associated with Golden Dome that are being specced in currently. Those announcements, award announcements haven't been made public yet, but rest assured our technology is quite relevant to those various programs. So stay tuned on that. And then, as I mentioned earlier, in addition to the propulsion technology, we're seeing huge demand signal on the advanced electronics part of our business, which is really foundational to a lot of defense programs in general. And then the energetic side, as I mentioned, and then advanced communications and sensing. So a lot of our CIGNET data processing, this is mostly in the intelligence community and classified programs, we're seeing strong demand signals there as well. So, yeah, it's really across the board with an emphasis, I would say, on propulsion. Phil, would you add anything to that?
Phil (Executive): Yeah, I'd certainly – well, one, I'd want to remind everybody how diversified our defense national security portfolio is today, especially with the strategic acquisitions of Exeterra and Estes in the back half of last year or so. To kind of reframe, certainly this past fourth quarter, NGI was a significant driver of our growth. NGI actually grew over 100% year-over-year in Q4. NGI was up about 100% year-over-year in the calendar year 2025. As we enter 2026, bear in mind about $200 million of our backlog sits within defense and national security. And only about 25% of that is actually tied to NGI, which is fantastic. Program is the base. And we look forward to the scaling of that program as we move from design phase here in 2026 into low-rate production and high-rate production in 2027, 2028, respectively. But just as a key reminder to investors, we are far more diversified than just Next Generation Interceptor, as important a program as it is to us.
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, and this final point I would make is, again, record backlog. And that record backlog is based upon record pipeline. So we really like the visibility we're seeing and the demand drivers we're seeing. And, you know, as a management team, the way we think about value creation is build pipeline. That's why we're super excited about the record pipeline. Make sure that we turn that into backlog management. And, of course, we're at record backlog, which then, of course, transfers into revenue, EBITDA, and then cash flow. So the funnel, Bronco, is just tremendous. And we're super bullish about the demand signals that we're seeing.
Seth Seifman (JP Morgan): Right. And digging into that funded backlog in defense and national security, I mean, it's over doubled quarter over quarter. Should we think about the kind of unannounced Golden Dome Awards as being the primary driver there of the growth, or is there another kind of program to call out?
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, it's not included. It's not included. So think of this as things that have been announced and things that haven't been announced or not yet in those numbers. I go back to the initial question from Ron asking us about the confidence in our visibility issues, sort of in our revenue guide for 2026. And obviously it starts with that record backlog position statement. But it's also, if you would, and I don't mean to sound overly enthusiastic. I'm supposed to be the CFO and more of the realist here in the room. But we are tremendously excited by the pipeline and how that's going to crystallize for us over the course of not just the first half of this year, but even as we extend out to the back half of the year. We know this administration is going to be heavy into upping the defense budget. The defense allocations, if you would, and clearly a lot of the onshoring demand that we're excited about is not reflected in this backlog. It's all in front of us in terms of order opportunity for us into our 26th. We have to get through 2026 first, but as we look out to 2027, it will make for yet another acceleration in growth profile for Voyager.
Seth Seifman (JP Morgan): Great. Thank you.
Management:
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Justin Lang with Morgan Stanley.
Justin Lang (Morgan Stanley): Good morning, Justin. Good morning. I'm on for Christine today. Thanks for taking the questions. I appreciate all the detail at the top on the FSTIS. I was hoping you could provide a little more color on how that business factors into your 26 outlook and how you think about synergy capture from here. And we've heard a lot about fragility within the missile propulsion supply base, so just curious if you could size maybe the magnitude of investment required to build out capacity in that business, and then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, so I'll take a stab at that, and I'll pass it over to Phil, especially to talk about the cost portion. But yeah, the energetics portion of our business is going to be increasingly strategic and critical. If you look at the value chain for propulsion and missile defense in general, but also the factoring into things like munitions, which is another key focus of administration. Within that value chain, energetics is one of the key components, not only from a value capture standpoint, but also as a critical supply chain input. And it's at the confluence of not only the fact that this is essential to make these systems work, but it's also at the confluence of the administration's priority for critical chemicals, which is the same strategic orientation that they had towards critical minerals like antimony and things like that. So that's a key focus. It also is at the confluence of onshoring, because a lot of these energetics are currently not made in the U.S. So there's a few factors here.
One is we can control more of the production inputs, which gives us more control over the supply chain, which ultimately gives us speed to market, which is what the customer is asking for. Furthermore, it allows us to build out this Voyager ADC, the American Defense Complex, which is relevant to all of our propulsion technologies. There's actually some CAPEX offset. With this Estes Energetics acquisition we made, we're able to use some of their facilities to offset some CAPEX that we had anticipated with our TDEX technology. So we're super excited about that. And then the other thing, which isn't in our numbers, but we're still, I think, very optimistic about is all of this is eligible for non-dilutive funding from the government, you know, under this critical chemicals framework and on-shoring framework. So I think that's another opportunity for value capture and CapEx offset. So when you think about this, Voyager American Defense Complex and what it's supporting, it's not only supporting the energetics business, which is a critical input, it's setting us up for scale production for our entire propulsion technology suite.
So think of this as a foundational investment that's going to lead to huge scaling and upside on the revenue side for propulsion more generally. So we're super excited about that. I think it's going to be ultimately, you know, a critical competitive advantage in modes that we're going to have that other providers are not going to have. And again, I think it's completely aligned with the administration's goals, stated goals for these critical inputs as well. So with that, I'll pass over to Phil.
Phil (Executive): Yeah, and again, thanks for the question. So, and one thing I think I'd really start by highlighting is, as we have acquired these businesses, the first thing that Voyager looks to do is integrate the businesses into our portfolio. So, don't think of these as a standalone operation kind of going forward. We will quickly integrate them. As Dylan mentioned, it's not just Estes, it's ExoTerra, it's our former predecessor Valley Tech business. It's all really part of our strategic defense strategy portfolio. And so, SEs along with ExoTerra, this does nothing but strengthen our vertical integration around propulsion. It's tied to multiple growth drivers, including Golden Dome. And FDs alone, from an energetics perspective, adds over a billion dollars of opportunity to our pipeline. So, again, back to the backlog, $266 million entering the year, very little of that tied to energetics. The opportunity is all in front of us. We know the opportunity is real. The U.S. government continues to call for it. When we highlight $60 to $70 million of CapEx in 2026, of course, that's all excluding Starlab. A significant portion of that is going to be tied to the Voyager American Defense Complex. Again, it's not only specifically Estes or energetics-related. It's also tied to propulsion, the broader propulsion portfolio, and supporting our grander, if you would, Golden Dome growth drivers and initiatives.
Justin Lang (Morgan Stanley): Got it. That's great, Kala. And then sort of relatedly, just on Golden Dome specifically, as that opportunity set takes shape, just curious from the signal you're getting from the customer, if they're really stressing that industry sort of vest up front here and you're seeing maybe a pay-to-play type dynamic emerge, any code there would be helpful.
Dylan (Executive): Well, again, record pipeline, about 1.6 billion of our record pipeline is associated with Golden Dome. So we're super bullish on the opportunity that we see. In terms of the procurement strategy, which is really, I think, embedded in your question, we are seeing the customer, the Department of War, looking for new ways to incentivize commercial providers to not only expect the technology they need, but to move faster to develop these systems. And, of course, that need is urgent. I think that plays to our strengths because we're more maneuverable, more entrepreneurial, more flexible, more adaptable than certainly a lot of the legacy players in this space are. So we actually welcome this, I would say, creative procurement approach that the customer is asking for. And then ultimately, keep in mind, the technologies that we're putting into play in the Golden Dome have already passed things like critical design view with critical design review on next generation interceptor. So this is already proven technology.
So even if it's a milestone-based contract, we have a lot of confidence that the tech is already going to work, as opposed to, let's say, developing systems that might have unproven technology being spec'd in. We could be more specific on the Golden Dome, but currently we're not able to talk specifically about the specifics of those contracts. But I would say, generally speaking, the customer is looking for new and innovative ways to procure that are disrupting the status quo approach.
Management: I think, Devon, if I could just double down and emphasize. So, think of not just the CapEx, but the innovation investment that we have planned for here in 2026. It's extremely deliberate, and it's a deliberate investment ahead of growth, not ahead of opportunity. If we didn't have line of sight to orders in our pipeline, line of sight to larger programs that are scaling in terms of moving from design phase into production phase, we wouldn't be making these investments ahead of this growth. So it just kind of reiterate our confidence in what that growth profile looks like. And, of course, like Voyager has demonstrated years past, being ahead of the curve, if you would, so not necessarily waiting for the opportunities to knock on our door. We are, if you're positioning ourselves, to capture a great share or portion of that share of that market as it unveils and it develops.
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, and I just want to emphasize one thing. Our record backlog does not include the upside from these Golden Dome opportunities.
Greg Conrad (Jefferies): Perfect.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Conrad with Jefferies.
Greg Conrad (Jefferies): Good morning. Good morning, Greg. Good morning. So you spent a lot of time talking about the defense and national security side. If maybe we could talk about space solutions a little bit. I think you said, you know, now that some of the wind-downs behind them, you expect it to return to growth in 2026. You know, what do you see as the biggest drivers of that and any way to maybe quantify the growth expectations for space?
Dylan (Executive): Yes, so I'll take that, Greg. So just a reminder, right, so fourth quarter revenue down entirely driven by the planned wind down of the NASA low margin services contract. So as we, if you would, reset 2026. We see continued demand for mission management services on the ISS, as it certainly continues to operate today. And think of that as the bridge to Starlab, which we're already seeing continuous demand. And, in fact, we know it's our current mission management services network. customer relationships, managing things on the International Space Station today, that's leading to that overbooked, if you would, commercial demand that we're seeing on Starlab already. So as we kind of look out to 2026 and 2027, we continue to see low Earth orbit as a demand driver, looking out even beyond. Certainly, the focus on lunar, and perhaps we can talk a little bit about the announcement we made today in that space and how that lends itself to that. I think that there's upside opportunity in space solutions. I look forward to seeing it return to growth in 2026, albeit modest relative to our defense national security business, which is supported by a tremendous amount of backlog entering the year. But make no mistake, Space Solutions continues to be a growth driver and a growth focus for Voyager.
Phil (Executive): Yeah, and I would just add, so we're very bullish on Space Solutions. I know we've spent a lot of time talking about the defense side, but we also see great demand on the Space Solutions side. Just to reiterate our strategy there, we call it the three L's, which is LEO, Lunar, and Lagrange, Lagrange being a proxy for Deep Space. So we'll have more to talk about on our max space investment probably on our next quarterly call because that's fresh. But think of us as focusing on the technologies that enable administration goals in all three of those domains, low Earth orbit, the lunar environment, and Deep Space. We have relevant technology already that applies to all three of those domains, and we're going to look to fund IRAD and or make acquisitions and or investments in technologies that are, again, going to address all three of those domains. And as Phil pointed out, we see a huge opportunity in lunar and the return to the moon with lunar infrastructure. And then, of course, a lot of our foundational mission management business is leading directly to these demand signals we're getting on Starlab, which is really positioning us well to capture the majority of the market share available in low-earth orbit. So we're feeling very bullish about that. 100% of our commercial demand for Starlab is already reserved, which I think is a fantastic outcome given the fact that we won't be in orbit for another 36 months.
Greg Conrad (Jefferies): And then maybe just as a follow-up, that's a good transition to Starlab. Any way to maybe quantify some of the financial impact in 2026? I think most of the numbers you gave are X Star Lab thinking about, you know, innovation, CapEx, and then it seems like potentially some offset given you've sold out the payload capacity. You know, how should we think about the free cash flow usage and any inflows tied to Star Lab in 2026?
Management: Yeah, Greg, I think really important to note in terms of planning cash flow around Starlab in 2026 is, one, I am driving a – think of it as a cash-neutral profile, meaning it's not just about free cash flow, but it's also about our successful fundraising for Starlab, and that's non-dilutive capital as well as dilutive capital through our successful Series A for Starlab that's been ongoing. We anticipate, obviously, NASA to step in during the year as well, but it's going to also be other international space agencies. And as we kind of start to approach the latter part of the year, we'll start to expect some pre-advanced fundings to come in from customers already. To that point, and I'll highlight, I know we've talked a lot about our record backlog in the $266 million, but just to highlight and be fully transparent with everybody, there's actually $6 million of backlog associated with Starlab, quarters ahead of when I would have expected to actually have hit. And so back to the growing demand, growing necessity for a low Earth orbit replacement for ISS and Starlab's great position to do so. We feel great about that from a financial perspective.
Starlab is intended to be, if you would, cash neutral for the year. We do anticipate free cash flow to be a cash outflow that will be funded by both dilutive and non-dilutive capital coming into the year. I think that's the important piece to highlight. From a Voyager perspective, just to remind everybody, the JV structure actually reduces Voyager's capital exposure to Starlab. Our diversified funding within Starlab itself limits Voyager's capital burden. And again, just to highlight the early demand visibility, the diversified customer base, we see for Starlab gives us tremendous excitement as we look out to later in 2026 and certainly 2027 as we start to move from design into actually constructing the new station.
Michael Leshock (KeyBank Capital Markets): Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask on the government shutdown and what you're expecting from the catch-up there and how that plays out in 26. Is there one quarter that might see the biggest benefit or is that relatively consistent as the year progresses?
Management: I can take that as well. And good morning, Mike. Thanks for making the call. You know, the government shutdown had a minor, if you would, impact or a relatively small impact on us actually in the fourth quarter. Probably would have had even bigger backlog, even more orders to report in Q4 if not for the prolonged government shutdown. So as excited as we are about, you know, total record backlog of $266 million, that would have been higher. So I look forward to Q1 and certainly Q2 being perhaps a little bit higher in terms of orders than perhaps historically speaking we would have seen. From a revenue perspective, that delay, if you were in the fourth quarter, probably means our first quarter will be a bit muted from an actual revenue crystallization perspective. And so we would anticipate revenue to accelerate through the year in 2026. But the government shutdown, for what it's worth, doesn't necessarily impact Voyager that significantly. The underlying demand drivers here, these national security growth drivers, are not, if you would, temporary. Obviously, with the geopolitical environment that we're in today.
You know, last quarter, we were talking about the impact, the potential of the prolonged impacts of the Ukraine war with Russia. Now we have the Iran conflict, et cetera. If anything, these things are just depleting our national security resources. And Voyager is well positioned to replenish that. And it's not going to be a six or 12 month resupply mission. This is going to be a multi-year growth support driver for Voyager.
Dylan (Executive): The only other thing I would say is that, you know, given the fact that we were shut down for half of the fourth quarter, 45 out of 90 days, the fact that we essentially hit our revenue target I think is a very good fact and I think shows not only the resilience but the diversification of the business. And again, exiting the year with record backlog, record pipeline, raising revenue guidance, all on the heels of a prolonged government shutdown I think is a very good fact. And then on the NGI program, can you provide any color on next milestones or key watchpoints for NGI to hit its target for LRIP in late 26? Is there any facility or capacity expansions that are needed to hit your targets and kind of drive the strong growth that you're seeing there?
Management: You want to take this on?
Dylan (Executive): Yeah, no. So, NGI, as we've said, we work very closely, obviously, with the prime Lockheed Martin there. Just case in point, we've continued to stay on time and stay on schedule from our perspective, irrespective of other potential supply chain issues. Ultimately, we will take that final order through it for low-rate production from the customer when it's ready. We do anticipate those orders to come here second half of this year as we move into low-rate production next year. As far as the manufacturing capacity and investment, to be clear, we are investing in the Voyager American Defense Complex ahead of demand for Golden Dome opportunities in excess or said incremental to Next Generation Interceptor. We know that those opportunities are real. We're working very closely with other primes, not named Lockheed Martin as an example, on various initiatives, various programs. And so that's the reason why we're making that investment. That said, we are well positioned to scale on NGI when Lockheed's good and ready.
Michael Leshock (KeyBank Capital Markets): Great. Thank you.
Management: Thanks, Mike. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Brandes with Wedbush Securities.
Sam Brandes (Wedbush Securities): Hi, everybody. Hi, Sam on for Dan Ives. Looking ahead to 2026, can you walk us through the two or three most critical growth drivers or milestones, whether contract awards, Starlab development targets, program execution gates, that you would point to as the clearest proof points that Voyager's long-term thesis is well on track?
Dylan (Executive): Well, we got a lot more than three. I'll try to pick the biggest three. I mean, I think a few things. One is continued delivery of our propulsion technology on programs like NGI, but I would say more specific to that would be being announced on additional programs of record, including Golden Dome programs, including legacy programs of record. I think evidence that we can hopefully talk about in the public domain here in the near term that would show that we're getting traction on additional programs I think would be a key indicator and validation point. And that would be, and again, just to reemphasize, that would be in addition to the record backlog that we've already talked about. So this is all incremental. So I think that's one thing. Second key thing would be our ability to scale our production capacity, because that's really what's going to set us up for a remarkable 2027 and 2028, both from a revenue growth perspective, but also from an operating leverage EBITDA, free cash flow, all the things that we anticipate.
And then the third thing I would say, which is relevant, is the successful outcome of CLD phase two, which of course is the space station selection by NASA. And we anticipate that selection to happen within calendar year 2026. And we feel very good about our strategic position there. And then just to emphasize, we have ample liquidity, lots of dry powder on the balance sheet. We're seeing huge opportunities, not only for internal investment to drive growth, but also still on the acquisition side as well. So those would be three kind of pillars that I would put out there. And we have a lot more than just those three, but I think those are three to keep an eye on.