Spire Global, Inc.

Q1 2026 Earnings Call — May 13, 2026

Executive Name (Title): Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session.

Analyst Name (Firm): Eric Rasmussen from Steeple. Your line is now live.

Analyst: Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. So maybe just on the RFGL, that sounds like you've made a lot of progress. You had five new U.S. and three international customers. It sounds like are you generating revenue today, and maybe just how big of an opportunity?

Executive Name (Title): I think, as you know, we don't give exact pipeline numbers. What I can say is that we've been increasing what we do, both in the U.S. and in Europe. The NRO has continued to add to the contract that we have with them. And we continue to go through the process of pilot into data subscription and into talking about sovereign constellations, particularly on the European side of things. So I'm super excited about what is happening on the RFGL side right now. With the geopolitical situation just continues to reinforce that both in the U.S. and around the world, there's a great demand for this type of capability, and very few companies that can actually meet that demand, both on the U.S. side and on the non-U.S. side.

Analyst: Great. Maybe just, Allie, for you, just to shift, should we think about the changes to annual guidance is primarily driven by deal timing becoming less linear across the quarters than rather any change in underlying visibility of demand? And then as you make that shift, what metrics should we focus on, you know, throughout the year to track the progress against that?

Executive Name (Title): I think that, you know... on... meeting our year. We have a lot of great things that we're working on right now that involve longer sales cycles. And the quarterly ups and downs are more of a distraction. So I'd focus on our annual guidance, which we are reaffirming from our last call, and how we are performing against those expectations during the year.

Analyst: Great. And maybe just my last one. You opened up the satellite manufacturing facility in Munich. It sounds like you'll be able to produce 100 satellites. Are you at that point yet? When will you be at that capacity? And then maybe, was this intentional in relation to the Uriallo project? Maybe just comment on how that maybe positions yourselves to potentially win and execute if you do go on to the next phase.

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, so the manufacturing facility is open in Munich. I think you probably saw some of the announcements about it. We had a really successful kind of opening and visitor session that happened earlier today in the European time zone. We have really 300 to 400 satellite capacity across those facilities when we talk about Boulder, talk about Munich, and we talk about, of course, what we can still continue to do in Glasgow. The Uriallo satellites are the first ones that are being integrated out of that Munich facility. So certainly those are the ones that get it kicked off and started and then give us the ability to continue to do European specific sovereign capabilities. And it's, you know, I think it's pretty exciting that we have those capabilities on both sides of the Atlantic and is really a competitive differentiator for us.

Analyst Name (Firm): Jeff Van Reen from Craig Hallam Capital Group. Your line is now live.

Analyst: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. A couple for me, Teresa. On the RFGL side, I mean, obviously a ton of interest there. Now Hawkeye's out and you've got a public comp, and I think the space is starting to get a lot more attention. Can you just help scope, back to the prior question, can you help scope a deal, you know, kind of what you're seeing in terms of maybe the timeline of a deal in the pipeline when it shows up, how long you think it takes between, you know, sort of showing up and getting into pilot, then subscription, you mentioned Constellation. and maybe just what a mid-sized deal might look like in terms of dollars.

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, and, you know, every single deal is different, right? So it's really hard to talk about what is going to be the average. I will say things do move faster in the United States, and on the RFGL side, those can move very quickly, within a matter of weeks. And this is what is so exciting about RFGL capability because a lot of it is driven about real operational capabilities that are needed given events that are happening around the world. On the European side, it is slower, there's no doubt. And the timeline from going to pilot into data subscription is really very much dependent on the country, on their procurement mechanisms, and their timelines of things. So it's hard to give you just an average. When it comes to deal sizes, I think we've mentioned before, you look at a month-long pilot and you're talking, you know, mid-six-figure range maybe. There's definitely a lot in the pipeline that gets to seven-figure range. And then, of course, it moves up as you start talking about sovereign constellations, multi-year capabilities, et cetera. I think that gives you the range.

Analyst: Yep. Thanks, Teresa. That's helpful. And on the NOAA front, I mean, obviously, the IDIQ and the budget intentions there look to just be absolutely massive. Congrats on the quick early light on the hyperspectral microwave sounder. Just curious, you commented a bit on the data. Could you just expand a little bit more on that in terms of are you far enough into that? Have you got a broad enough data set to give you the conviction that the data quality relative to NOAA needs is there or better at this point?

Executive Name (Title): The short answer is yes. We're delivering that data right now. I believe, in fact, we are getting paid for that data. And we expect to continue to have procurement around that data set from that satellite that is in orbit today. And I think I will add the opportunities with NOAA. We talked about some of that pipeline. We mentioned over 150 million of stuff that is in-year. between the various data types, RO, as well as multiple related to microwave sounding, I can't emphasize enough how different this is from where NOAA was in prior years. It's really pretty exciting, all the stuff that is being worked on right now, and the team is pretty hectic, I have to say, responding to all these.

Analyst: Yeah. Yeah, it's great to see the move to commercial actually really playing out in scale. Maybe one last, just curious if you could comment on the broader space services pipeline. You had a nice signing a little while back with Deloitte for your deal. You were just commenting on the Munich capacity coming online. So obviously you've got capacity, proven ability, launch. Just curious what that's doing to your space services pipeline and how it's evolving.

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, I think a lot of the space services pipeline is really focused on what we're able to do on the government side, and that's going to be government. That's also going to be, you know, I would say commercial companies that ultimately are serving the government market, right, because that's where all the budgets are. And what everyone cares about is the ability to rapidly deploy things. And rapidly deploy new things as we go forward and the geopolitical situation continues to change. And that's exactly where SPIRE shines and why it's important that we have that manufacturing capacity already deployed. We already know how to build those satellites at scale. And so I'm pretty excited about the space services pipeline there as well and what the team has done as work over the past year in getting us ready for scaling.

Analyst: Yeah, great. I lied. Maybe one last, if I could. Allie, on the $5.8 million of legal accounting professional, it sounds like that's going to come out over the year. Can you just give us maybe any sense of how quickly those costs can come out and get down to a more manageable baseline?

Executive Name (Title): I think it's kind of probably back half of the year should decline more significantly than the first half of the year, Jeff. That's probably the most I can say about that.

Analyst: Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks so much.

Executive Name (Title): Thank you.

Analyst Name (Firm): Austin Moeller from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now live.

Analyst: Hi. Good afternoon, Teresa and Ali. So my first question, on the $8 billion NOAA ProTech IDIQ, what modalities of data are being sought? I think there's eight mentioned. And how are the funds from that $8 billion dispersed between the different modalities like microwave, reflectometry, occultation, sea ice, et cetera?

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, so it's actually seven data types. I think I've misspoken in a few places and said eight right when it first came out. So it's seven, four of which we are able to do. Um, the IDIQ is being responded to right now by industry, right? So it's going to be something where, um, multiple companies are, you know, are tied into it. And then NOAA will issue task orders over the next, I think it's five years related to that IDIQ. So, you know, multiple companies are going to get orders under that NOAA, likes to have, you know, at least two parties getting data orders in all the different types that they do. So you can't really give a number, and it's not really a zero-sum game around that IDIQ. I mean, I think 8 billion is a huge number and just gives you a sense of how serious NOAA is about this. What I can tell you is that NOAA is very focused on radio occultation and microwave being the two most important ones that they want to get going from a procurement perspective. And they continue to talk to us about the reflectometry and the ocean surface winds as also the next one that they have as a priority. And so, you know, of course, this will continue to evolve over the years, but I think gives you a good indication of, you know, some of their top priorities are areas where we, you know, we have a, a very strong offering to give.

Analyst: Okay. And are you able to give an update on where we're at on Uriallo satellite production? And I guess what the European Space Agency and the European Union's current thinking is now that the ministerial budget is in place?

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, so the team has been working and building stuff on those satellites, and they start doing integration in the Munich facility. I think it's later this month, in fact. So, I mean, their work is happening on that and ongoing. The Uriallo program was given additional budget coming out of the ministerial, and so how this continues to evolve is an ongoing discussion between all the various parties. European Space Agency is involved, the DLR, the German Space Agency is involved, all of our different consortium partners are involved, and of course continued interest and priority through the European Union. It's an ongoing process, I would say.

Analyst: Sounds very exciting. I'll pass it back there. Thank you.

Executive Name (Title): Thanks, Austin.

Analyst Name (Firm): Chris Quilty from Quilty Space. Your line is now live.

Analyst: Thanks, Teresa. Just wanted to follow up on the NOAA opportunities and exciting pipeline there. How should we think about that in terms of capital contribution? In other words, as you branch out into different sensors, does that require different classes of satellites or different orbital inclinations? Are there any of these where there might be a large contribution? And with the contracting, are you seeing opportunities for government NRAs?

Executive Name (Title): Yeah, so in terms of capacity, we have a lot of capacity on orbit, and I would say enough capacity on orbit for radio occultation, for what we would do with reflectometry. And, of course, we just mentioned already the first satellite even has relevant capacity from a microwave perspective. So as we would go forward, more microwave-sounding satellites would is where this would become relevant as part of our ongoing replenishment and deployment across the constellation. The HIMSS satellite, you may be aware, is already fitting within the normal form factor that we do. You may also recall that the development of that HIMSS payload and satellite was actually something that was supported through a customer contract in the first place.

So that's actually a great example of some government-funded NRE that turns into then capacity and capability that we can then deploy and sell as well. whether it's, you know, different phenomenologies on the weather side or RFGL and, you know, to be able to add multiple technologies onto the same platform. I mean, our platform already supports the TEC, the RO, the R, now the microwave sounding. And so I don't want this to be something where we're going and building brand new big things, spending tons of NRE that is outside of our wheelhouse. I think we have a great technology platform base that we've shown we can deploy in a cost effective way. And we have tons of opportunity with NOAA and more broadly from that to be able to use the platform that we have. And, of course, we continue to deploy new technology. We talked about the anomaly detection in the comments that we shared earlier. So we continue to do R&D on that. But this is like scalable business rather than trying to do NRE all over the place.

Analyst: Great. And speaking of new technologies, congrats on the success with the mini crosslinks. Is that a product that you expect to both proliferate, you know, across your constellation as a standard? And is it something that you would sell on a merchant basis?

Executive Name (Title): It's definitely something that we look at as enabling technology that just makes our constellation and our platform better. I suppose that's an open question, whether it's something that we would also make available more broadly in the industry. Right now, I'm focused on making sure we take it from the final demonstration R&D phases into something that is deployed across our network.

Executive Name (Title): Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. And, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line

at this time and have a wonderful day.

We thank you for your participation today.

Q4 2025 Earnings Call — March 18, 2026

Analyst: Eric Rasmussen (Stifel): A lot to take in there, but it seems like the business is really starting to show a possibility for inflection. Wanted to ask about the guidance. Q1 revenue around $15 million. That is up, I guess, on an excluded basis sequentially, but just how do we think about that in relation to the $80 million annual guidance? You know, wanted to get some thoughts on the slope of that revenue throughout the year. And are you looking at more of like a weighted second half versus first half?

Executive: Management: You're correct that we start to ramp up revenue more as we go through the year. In Q1, as you know, we had some launches that moved out of Q4 into the early part of Q1. So there is the ramp up of revenue that starts to come out of those launches. The other thing is really going to be focused on the radio frequency geolocation opportunity. As we move from pilot programs into larger data deliveries that hit revenue right away, this is where you start to see a lot of the growth coming in the back half of the year. In the last two weeks alone, we've had a flurry of activity and requests coming around the geopolitical situation, and I am expecting that to continue. The other thing that I want to highlight is the area we discussed in the comments about NOAA and their intention to increasingly purchase commercial data sets. I don't know if you've seen yet, but an RFP has come out for a five-year IDIQ with an $8 billion ceiling for, I think it's about eight different data types for weather data, four of which FIRE is capable of delivering with infrastructure that we already have. The NOAA relationship and an ability to keep growing into that is also going to be important to the year.

Analyst: Eric Rasmussen (Stifel): And maybe just sticking with the financial model, you know, Ali talked about a gross margin target of the next three to five years of 60% to 70%. What's pushing that out? I seem to remember that that might have been a more near-term target, but can you just maybe talk about what's driving that? Just sort of how that ramps throughout maybe this year and in relation to that target.

Executive: Management: I mean, I think we definitely see the ramp as we see the revenue growth throughout the year. But as we continue, you know, to compound on that, that allows us to attain, you know, higher margins in the future. I mean, we do see margin growth in 2026. But I think hitting those higher targets in the out year will be driven by revenue growth.

Analyst: Eric Rasmussen (Stifel): And maybe just touching on my last question, just touching on the satellite opportunities that's been pushed out with the wire set with Canadian Space Agency. Can you just talk about sort of what's happening there, latest on conversations? It seems like you stripped that out entirely, so that could potentially be upside to your numbers if that does come through again. Maybe just further thoughts on that.

Executive: Management: Yeah, there's not a ton that we're able to say other than we've paused execution while we have discussions on the status with our partner, including around timing and requirements. As you said, we have been conservative in taking out any amount of revenue for the year so that we can give you numbers that you know, we have really great visibility into. And as you said, that is potential upside to the numbers that we have shared.

Analyst: Jeff Van Re (Craig Hallam Capital Group): Congrats, guys. Obviously, that guide in particular, excluding wildfire status, to me, pretty impressive. On the sovereigns, I think you called out a lot of strength in EMEA in particular, and maybe you could just expand on that a little bit. You've got, I think you said, up eight or nine figures, some government deals in those categories that are percolating. How many years would one of those, say, nine-figure deals be spread over typically? And then you mentioned you've got some pilots going to deploy. So I'm just trying to understand how much of that is, how visible it is, I guess. If you look at that 2026 outlook, how many pilots are you in that could convert to large sovereign deals? So a couple of questions embedded in there.

Executive: Management: I really am excited about the RFGL opportunity, and I'm excited about what we can provide on the U.S. government side, and I am excited about what we can provide rest of world. We've talked about that quite a bit. We mentioned the number of 17 different countries that we're engaged in, and the discussion always starts with What do you have in orbit today that you can provide us data with immediately right now that we can start working with? And then it transitions into what type of wider subscription program can we do using in orbit assets at the same time that the discussion around sovereign constellation happens? And so this would be using our local manufacturing capacity in Germany and in the UK, depending on the need, deploying capabilities that, of course, we already know how to deploy and we have the technology, but that are for a particular nation or government or region. And that's where you have the transition from these pilot programs into much larger opportunities. I think just about all of the discussions transition along that pathway. And I do expect those transitions to start to bear fruit in 2026.

Analyst: Jeff Van Re (Craig Hallam Capital Group): And just the second part of that question, if it's a nine-figure deal, just generally speaking, how long would those deals be?

Executive: Management: Yeah, so they're going to be similar to our space services ones where they're multi-year. It's going to depend a bit on what they're asking for, right? But they're multi-year.

Analyst: Jeff Van Re (Craig Hallam Capital Group): And then if you look at the pipeline with respect to the mix of space services contracts versus what I would call sort of the data slash recurring contracts, just talk about sort of the mix of the two and the mix shift that that implies for revenue flows over the next year or two.

Executive: Management: So I think the big growth that we're still expecting in terms of revenue in 2026 is a lot tied to RFGL, and it's going to be tied to revenue that we collect from satellites that have been launched and programs that have already been signed. Of course, as we start to build out the pipeline of space services opportunities, that's what gives us confidence in the on-growing growth when we talk about the out years and three- to five-year growth. And I think we continue to have a mix of both sovereign opportunities and continuing to fill in the gaps with our existing infrastructure on the data side.

Analyst: Jeff Van Re (Craig Hallam Capital Group): Got it. And then maybe last for me, I think in last quarter's call, you were fresh off a lot of chaos within government, U.S. government in particular, related cycles. I think they stalled in Q3. And you played that through into your Q4 guide. What are you experiencing and what are you assuming for Q1 and beyond?

Executive: Management: And I think the strength of the NOAA story and the movement that they are making there is very apparent. They came out at the very beginning of the year at the AMS meeting with very strong comments about moving towards much broader-based focus on commercial data purchases versus building things themselves. And they've made pretty clear that they're expecting commercial companies to have the infrastructure for the data purchases. So that puts Spire, you know, squarely as a core player in that $8 billion stealing IDIQ. So we are absolutely seeing movement, including what happened with that RFP coming out this week. We do see bills moving through Congress that look to solidify the focus on commercial purchases both across NOAA and NASA. And on the NASA side, we continue to have discussions with that team on what that program looks like. They are very active. But I just add on to that, Jeff, that that's really a lot of that momentum is going to start being seen in Q1 and Q2 and beyond.

Analyst: Jeff Van Re (Craig Hallam Capital Group): Got it. Great. Well, great to see you. I mean, obviously it's been a big period of transition and getting just a lot of the noise behind you and being able to go execute. You know, looking forward to it. It looks like some good organic growth there. So thanks for taking the questions.

Analyst: Brian Kinslinger (Alliance Global Partners): I'm curious if you could first speak to the visibility of the low point of revenue guidance, how much is coming from backlog or signed orders versus how much do you need to win or convert from pilots into orders?

Executive: Management: We have really a strong visibility into the revenue and a very large part of it, I would say approximately 75% is covered through contracts we already have in place.

Analyst: Brian Kinslinger (Alliance Global Partners): Great. And then can you talk about how you think about the timeframe when you're in a pilot and how quickly and what has to happen between the two stages? Is that pilot turns to a production order for data? Does contract need to start over? What has to happen between those two phases other than them testing and seeing success?

Executive: Management: Yeah, it's really going to depend on the customer and on the country and the and on their procedures. In some cases, it can move very quickly from a pilot into a wider subscription. In other cases, it's going to take a little bit longer. So, it's hard to give you an exact answer other than to say that I feel very good about the momentum that we have on the RFGL side in 2026. I do believe we will be transitioning into larger amounts of revenue that are going to hit in the year for us. In the geopolitical situation, our 15x capacity on orbit is going to support that.

Analyst: Brian Kinslinger (Alliance Global Partners): Last question I've got is the first quarter adjusted EBITDA loss is quite high. Can you just highlight what the infrequent costs are that are being added back and then even excluding that SG&A is high, maybe you want to touch on why the SG&A is so elevated outside of that in the first quarter?

Executive: Management: I mean, I think that there are – it's being driven by a couple things. One is sort of a unique situation with respect to our audit fee because KPMG did not start the full year 2025 audit until November. We had to take really a fee that we would, you know, recognize over an entire year and recognize that over a five-month period from November through March. So that kind of – smashed in, for lack of a better technical term, a bunch of costs in Q4 and Q1 in SG&A. And I think that's the primary driver of what we're seeing, aside from some legal fees for those various run-of-the-mill matters.

Analyst: Austin Mahler (Canaccord Genuity): So just my first question here, if we think about Golden Dome, do you expect the primary opportunity there to be more like the RF geolocation opportunity, or are you interested in bidding on Golden Dome on the Shield contract vehicle as a bus manufacturer and operator?

Executive: Management: Yeah, so we're evaluating right now the opportunities that will make the most sense. As you know, we're part of that IDIQ. I think we have very strong capabilities when it comes to our bus and our satellite systems. Of course, the RFGL capabilities are very unique. And I would also highlight the things that we can do around weather data sets, weather forecasting, and the aviation tracking. So I would say all three of those things are on the table. Our team here in the U.S. is meeting regularly with leadership related to that program. And I feel good that we're well positioned to play a part of it.

Analyst: Austin Mahler (Canaccord Genuity): And then could you provide any update on the Uriola satellites and ESSP now that the ESA budget's passed? And I guess if you have capacity for 300 to 400 satellites a year, does that mean there wouldn't be a significant CapEx investment if you were to win ESSP and expand that?

Executive: Management: Yeah, so the satellites from the existing contract are being built. That's all proceeding and in play. The wider program continues to march forward slowly, I would say, but it marches forward. We did have an incremental new contract related to it. I can't say anything about more about it than that. And that's just to say momentum continues and the discussions about it continue. Of course, we talk about that 300 to 400 capacity for manufacturing. This, of course, would involve additional CapEx to put up those satellites. And the CapEx in that instance, of course, would be paid for by the customer that has requirements for sovereign capabilities that need to be rapidly deployed. So when we say that number, it's talking about the capacity that we have if someone comes to us tomorrow and says, okay, we need to put a lot of satellites through the system. And I think what's important about that is that a lot of organizations are talking about setting up the capacity and the ability to build things. We've got it all ready to go, and then it's just a question of how we move through the customer demand. That's very exciting.

Analyst: Scott Buck (HC Wainwright): I guess first on the revenue guide, at the high end, are you relying on a single program to potentially reach that 61% level or not? Are there multiple balls in the air that could get you there?

Executive: Management: Yeah, no, there are multiple different things in our pipeline that I say we have quite good visibility into. And so it's not like this is a black or white thing. We gave the high range because we still feel like it's an entirely possible thing to hit based on the pipeline that we have.

Analyst: Scott Buck (HC Wainwright): Perfect. And then you highlighted – Europe in your facility there. I'm curious, has any of the European opportunities moved beyond budgeting to, you know, pen to paper and checks being written?

Executive: Management: So I would say the pilot programs that we've mentioned is pen to paper and checks being written. And this relates, I would say, to data delivery programs. Of course, we have existing things going like Uriallo that were already pen to paper that we're building out of that facility. We're very aware of budgets and demand and programs that are I would say, working their way through the system. And this remains an extremely important topic. I know it's harder to picture that over here in the U.S., but it is the constant topic of discussion in Europe everywhere you go with every government you talk to about sovereign capabilities and where something is manufactured, where leadership is located, and ability to count on the technology. And we are positioned, I think, better than any other company to be able to capture that in a legitimate way in Europe, as well as continue to be a really strong partner in the United States.

Analyst: Scott Buck (HC Wainwright): Okay, so it sounds like you're seeing a real sense of urgency and not just, you know, saber-rattling, I guess.

Executive: Management: There's absolute urgency. I have never seen it like this before.

Analyst: Scott Buck (HC Wainwright): Perfect. That's all I had. I appreciate the time.

Executive: Management: Thank you.

Executive: Management: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session, and we'll conclude our call today. We thank you for your interest and participation. You may now disconnect your lines.