Q4 2025 Earnings Call — February 19, 2026
Analyst David Manthe (Baird): Thank you. Good morning, everyone. First question on SG&A. Melanie, you pointed out that the low single-digit growth rate that you were guiding to is enough to trigger the incentive comp reset. So I assume that that, whatever that is, 25 or 30 basis points of a drag is factored into your earnings guidance. The question is, if revenue were to come in flat, let's say, unexpectedly, would that imply that you would not trigger the incentive comp reset? I'm trying to get an idea. Is this a sliding scale? Is it binary? How should we think about how that layers in or doesn't layer in, given various ranges of revenues?
Management: It's definitely a sliding scale. So, you know, within kind of that range of low single digits, we would expect different points of recovery. You know, with flat sales, the way that our incentive programs are structured, we would not see any change to the overall incentive compensation from 25 to 26. And good morning, Dave. And what I would say is that, additionally, if sales, if the market lags, even more, and sales do come in flat, then frankly, from a cost perspective, we would do other things to be in line with the market.
Analyst David Manthe (Baird): Yeah. Thanks, Pete. And then on gross margin, you're guiding that flat. As you're going through scenario planning and setting your budgets, what are some factors that you think about where that could come in above or below flat with 2025, some of the key things that you're considering?
Management: That's a good question. It's a broad topic, as you know. So, when I think about, you know, the drivers of gross margin, certainly customer mix and product mix are part of that. Our work in pricing optimization, which continues to improve factors into that, I was particularly encouraged with the fourth quarter gross margin expansion. I think that was driven by a couple of things. It was driven by a great effort by our supply chain teams. I think it was partially driven by the pricing work that the field is doing. I look at a product mix. Now, on one hand, I would say if renovation and remodel, which continues to outpace new pool construction, frankly, if that continues on the same path that it's on, that will create some lift for us from a product mix perspective. And then I look at the proprietary or exclusive brands that we have been building over the years and our continued work in those areas as I would say tailwinds that would help drive the number. The other side of that is that in a market like we are in, there's always competitive pressures, which, again, I don't really get too concerned about because we have them.
I don't expect the competitive pressures to be, frankly, any different in 2026 as they were in 2025. And as you can see by the numbers, you know, I think the business did a very good job of more than offsetting that. So, yes, they're there, but does it really drive our behavior? No. I mean, we did see some deflation on chemicals, but again, in my comment I mentioned, You know, that's why we're kind of focused on the chemical side, that we have some products that are exclusive and proprietary, you know, where we don't see that type of headwind that we are also leaning into. So, you know, overall, when I look at gross margin, you know, I think the team did a very good job in 25, and I also think we have the same levers plus more to pull in 2026, which will help us out in that area.
Analyst Ryan Merkel (William Blair): Hey, everyone. Thanks for all the thoughts on 26. I also wanted to ask on SG&A, when I plug in some of the parameters that you gave, I'm coming up with like one and a half percent SG&A growth for 26. Just given some of the things you talked about with the employer rewards and new sales centers, is that, am I in the right ballpark there?
Management: So, I would say if you're thinking about, you know, sales growth and expense growth and trying to match those, we would expect that the expense growth would come in, you know, slightly less than the sales growth to give us, you know, a similar operating income margin, maybe slight leverage for next year. So, we're going to, you know, be looking to offset some of that incentive comp recovery overall by looking at utilizing the capacity that we have put into the market. So the term that you may hear for 2026 will be capacity absorption. As we've talked about the investments that we've made in technology and the investments that we've made in building out our footprint on the greenfield side, we feel very well positioned with what we've done to date.
Management: Hey, Ryan, good morning. I'll give you a couple of thoughts in this area. So I think we are particularly focused on the SG&A of the business because I think in the last couple of years, rightfully so, we invested in order to make sure that we maintained our market leadership position in terms of capabilities, customer experience. At the same time, we also have opportunities from, as Melanie mentioned now, from a capacity absorption perspective. We made some investments. We're starting to see positive traction on those investments, and I believe that the new facilities, as they continue to mature with a great degree of focus from the management team, that our operating leverage on those facilities, you know, will continue to improve. I mean, if you look at our operating margins across the fleet, if you will, we have, you know, most of our facilities, frankly, are in fantastic shape. They're doing well. We added new, which mixes us down, but it's the same formula that propelled, you know, the fleet to a high average is now being applied to the 50-some-odd new facilities that we've added over the years.
And a focus on our lower performing locations, which you've been covering us for a long time, implies our focus list. They're getting a particularly high level of attention right now. So when I look at SG&A and I say, well, you know, will we be in line with the market from the top line perspective if the market improves, then SG&A will be easier to deal with from a percentage basis. If the market doesn't improve, then we're going to have to do other things to make sure that we stay in line. But we're okay with that because we believe that the investments that we've made over the last couple of years don't need to be repeated, and we should start to harvest the benefit.
Analyst Ryan Merkel (William Blair): Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. My second question is just on 1Q. Are you assuming the first quarter is also up low single digits like the full year? Just want to see if there's any cadence things we should be thinking of. And there is a bit of weather in 1Q. I'm not sure if that had an impact or not. And then could you also comment on chemical prices? Will those be down in the first quarter?
Management: So I'll take the first one on how 1Q is performing. I think the, So as you know, 1Q is our least significant quarter. That's not to diminish the contribution to the business. I mean, when I look at first quarter, we're basically halfway through it. But March is bigger than January, obviously. So at this point, I would tell you that I am encouraged with what we've seen. Too soon for me to tell you that, hey, we're going to blow the doors off of first quarter. But what I will say is that if we have a normal weather pattern for March and the rest of this month, then I think our expectations for the first quarter will be in line. And then your second question about chemicals, a little too soon to tell, because remember, first quarter, this is when there's some noise in the system with chemical pricing. I can tell you I'm not particularly concerned about deflation at this point on chemicals. I think things are fairly steady. So I'm not at this point spending a lot of time thinking that chem prices are going to get worse. But what we are focused on is getting customers introduced to and using the proprietary chemicals where we have a differentiated value proposition, which makes us less susceptible to swings in the market on anything but pure commodities.
Analyst David McGregor (Longbow Research): Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I guess just a question on store ops, and, you know, what's the opportunity? You made passing reference a moment ago to the focus list, but, you know, just what is the opportunity to improve the profitability at the bottom performing quintile stores, and what are some of the actions that you're taking there? Maybe you could talk about that, and I guess related to that, just given the near-term market outlook, does it make sense to begin consolidating some of these locations and just achieve better four-wall economics?
Management: Yeah, I'll take that, and then Melanie can chime in. So, you know, part of our work at the focus list level, which is our bottom performing branches – And this is nothing new for PoolCorp, but the branches that fall into the focus list, which I would argue what is a focus list branch for us would be considered by most others to be a very well-performing branch because our standard is pretty high on what we consider a focus branch. I mean, the levers that you have there are a couple. One, you know, obviously the biggest lever that you have is sales growth. Are we growing sales? Are we becoming more important, more relevant to the customers? And that's done with creating a best-in-class customer experience. And frankly, customer engagement. So from a lever perspective, the biggest one we have for the focus branches is just that. Then there's the operational execution side of that. So the teams are focused on exactly what we do, how we do it, how efficient we are in doing that, and making sure that we're utilizing all of the competitive advantages that we have to give us the most efficient cost to serve those customers.
Your last comment as it relates to, you know, is there some opportunity for consolidation? And the answer is maybe. So when we look at each individual market, we look at our footprint, and there are a couple markets where I would say, you know, as we have expanded our capabilities in some areas, we may have opportunities to consolidate some of those if we don't see the market, an individual particular market, continuing to grow and expand, those would be ones where we look at, all right, how else can we most efficiently serve the market without letting down our customers and ceding any share? So, I mean, you've known us for a while, so this is nothing new. This is what we do. We've been focused the last couple of years on continuing to build out the network and making sure we were where the pools were going to be built and where our customers were needed us to be. We've added capabilities as it relates to technology and supply chain, which allow us to be, frankly, more efficient.
And now we're starting to see the gains from that. To put an opportunity to size it, if you will, I mean, when I look at our focus list branches, I would just say that when I look at the overall operating margin improvement, I think there's plenty of opportunity to work there to achieve our goals, really kind of independent of the market improving. So when I look at our operating margin, you know, improvement and expansion, yes, would the industry growing make that easier? Yes, but it still wouldn't mean that we wouldn't do what we're doing on focus list branches to make them more profitable and contribute more to the business.
Analyst David McGregor (Longbow Research): Got it. Thank you for that detailed answer. My second question really just with respect to kind of the longer-term growth algorithm, and, you know, you've included within that growth of 2% to 3% above the market, mostly through store openings and private label, I guess a little bit of acquisitions. I guess how are you thinking about your ability to achieve that above-market growth in 2026?
Management: Yeah, I think part of it is there is still plenty of opportunity when I look at our market share across the fleets. You know, we have plenty of markets that are still below the median. So I think, you know, just improving our customer engagement, frankly, our customer experience and our operational efficiency helps. I also think that, you know, there is an opportunity from a demand creation perspective because, you know, pragmatically when I look at the market overall and the products that are still being sold into the market, there is still a more than significant opportunity to expand the TAM, if you will, by selling the more technologically advanced products, which are ultimately very, very good for the homeowner. And I think our job is to help expand the adoption of those.
So you're going to see at the Investor Day presentation something we call the ProZone, which is designed to do just that. to teach the builders and the service professionals when they come into the branch to be able to see the full range of products, to be able to see the benefits from the more innovative and technologically advanced products that have more full feature automation and are frankly more efficient for the homeowner. So rather than take a more passive approach on that, we're going to take a much more active approach on that in the showrooms to make sure that our customers understand all of those new products and what benefits they provide either them as a servicer or for hopefully or so that they can explain to the homeowner, I should say.
Analyst Susan McCleary (Goldman Sachs): Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the gross margin. You're thinking about the path for that as we look over the year. Can you talk about what that inventory bill that you made in the fourth quarter will mean for profitability and how we should be thinking about that relative to the guide for the pricing to be up one to two points this year?
Management: Yep. So one thing, so we do expect that we will see some continued pricing benefits from the investments that we've made in inventory. We would expect that certainly we would see that in first quarter.
As a reminder, when you look back from a comparable standpoint for 2025, we did have that mid-season price increase in 2025.
So starting kind of May forward, you know, there were some benefits from that mid-season price increase, which at this point in time, you know, we wouldn't anticipate would occur again in 2026. So I would say that we would see, you know, slightly better margins in first quarter, The remaining of the quarters would be, you know, relatively comparable, you know, with fourth quarter because it's so, it's a smaller portion of the year. We may not see as many benefits. The only thing that we've seen to date is we have seen a second wave of price increases on certain products for salt cells, but when we look at it kind of consolidated-wise, we don't think that will have a significant impact on margins overall.
Management: Hey, Susan, good morning. This is Pete. Let me add just a little bit to that, if I could. I think the team did a very good job of exercising good financial judgment with the investment in inventory. And I think they were very surgical about it. So, you know, when we allocate capital to something, one of the things that is a hallmark of the company is that we have been very judicious allocators of capital, whether that is investment in long term or whether that is investment in working capital. So I think the team did a very good job and was very surgical about making investments in areas that will help us through the 2026 season. Now, obviously, given the amount of inventory that we have and what our cogs are on a full-year basis, you know, that, you know, we will burn through most of that benefit, you know, by mid-season, and then, you know, of course, we will be reordering. But I think we feel very good about realizing benefits, but they'll be more weighted to the beginning of the year than the end of the year, subject to what happens in the industry from a pricing perspective.
Analyst Susan McCleary (Goldman Sachs): Yes. Okay. Thank you for that. And then I want to go back to thinking about the growth for the business over time. Can you talk about how you're thinking of organic growth given the investments that you've made in the last several years relative to the inorganic growth opportunity that's out there? Are we really sort of shifting now through this period where it's going to be driven by your initiative, a lot of these efforts that you've implemented in the business, whereas the inorganic piece will just inherently become just a smaller and smaller part of that algorithm? Any thoughts around that and what that would mean for capital allocation?
Management: Sure. You know, I would tell you that from an organic growth perspective and what gives us confidence in the long-term growth algorithm for the business is that We believe that the product that the industry that we serve and the product that we primarily, you know, sell either, you know, through new pool construction or remodel and renovation is still highly desirable. And, you know, we've been talking about, you know, we're kind of bumping along the bottom. There was a slight drop in new pool construction in 2025. I can't tell you that I think that that was driven by any wild change in consumer sentiment. I think it's more a function of certain geographies and the housing market per se. So when I look at our opportunity to grow and I look at our market share and I look at that on a market by market basis, I would tell you that we have opportunity to continue to grow even if the market continues to stay towards the bottom. I would also tell you that there's a couple of things that are going to, we're going to start to see benefit from as it relates to equipment.
So, you know, when the industry switched to from single speed motors to variable speed motors they inherently lasted longer but now we're starting to get close to the period where from when we started selling a lot of single speed motors or single speed pumps to variable speed pumps that they will start coming into their replacement cycle, number one. Number two, I still believe that there is a significant opportunity to modernize the pad. You know, if I looked across the – you know, we talk to many, many customers. We talk about what they're seeing in the backyards when they go into these backyards and they look. You know, if what we were seeing over and over again was, you know, ultra-modern pads, fully adopted, everything that is available to the consumer, I would say, okay, so now we're more in a replacement cycle. But today, what I would say is there is still an outsized opportunity to modernize the pads with the new equipment.
Now, part of this demand creation is incumbent upon us, I believe, in order to teach the servicers and get word out, so to speak, through marketing programs and demand creation in conjunction with our OEMs that says, hey, you can improve your customer experience in the backyard if you adopt and use these new products versus just replacing what's there. So I think there is still an opportunity. The install base is going to continue to grow. I think that, you know, there is pent-up demand on renovation and remodeling. We're starting to see some of that realized as evidenced by the building material sales increasing and the fact that we have, I believe we've taken share in the new construction area for those as well. And then lastly, your question on inorganic growth. I think that there are still opportunities for inorganic growth out there. I think the team is very focused in that area as well as just one of our long-term growth levers. And I don't know that anybody in the industry is any better positioned to do that than PoolCorp.
Analyst Scott Schneeberger (Oppenheimer): Hi, guys. It's Daniel for Scott. Thank you for taking our question. Could you please discuss the key factors that would put you at the low end versus the high end of the EPS guidance range? Thank you.
Management: Yeah, the range is primarily going to vary depending upon overall market conditions and the resulting sales growth from that standpoint.
Analyst Daniel (Oppenheimer): Got it. And as far as the assumptions on new pool to be flat year-on-year as well as renovation and remodel slightly up, could you speak to what you're hearing from your customers regarding backlog and how confident you are in those projections? Thank you.
Management: Yeah, I'll take that. We've just come out of our show season, so January, there's a lot of shows, so we spend a lot of time with dealers in January and, frankly, early February, even as recent as this week. So I will tell you that the level of optimism from the customers right now is pretty good. I don't know that – I've talked to many customers that say, we're going to build just as many pools as we built last year, and the phones are ringing, so we feel comfortable in that assessment. Is that as many pools as they built during the peak? Absolutely not. But I would tell you that the general sentiment on new pool construction is that, you know, based on the dealers we have spoken to, which is a sample size of the total – is actually pretty good. So it's not a doom and gloom. The phone's not ringing. It's basically, yeah, I think we'll build at least as many pools as we built last year with many dealers saying that, hey, you know what, we're actually optimistic.
But saying that they're optimistic in February and actually having those contracts come to realization is during the season are two different things, but I will tell you it feels much better to me that the dealers are saying, hey, I'm going to build at least as many pools as I built last year, and there's many of them that are optimistic. And then, like every sample, right, you have opposite ends of the spectrum. You have people at the high end that they would tell you, hey, business is great. You know, I'm turning customers away. I'm going to build as many pools as I can this year, and I'm taking orders into next year. And at the low end, you have people that would be struggling. But by and large, I would say the industry confidence level is more encouraging than not.
Analyst Trey Grooms (Stevens): Yeah. Hi, Peter and Melanie. This is Ethan on for Trey. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to dive deeper, maybe in digging into more of a market-by-market look. So directionally, what are you seeing on the new pool or broader discretionary side? From a market-by-market standpoint, some of these more challenged markets on the new residential construction side, like Florida and Texas, may be starting to show signs of a potential trend improvement. I know you called out in the prepared remarks, improving trends in Texas in the back half of 2025. Obviously, these are important markets on the new pool side, so any more color on market specifics would be really helpful. Thanks.
Management: Sure. The information coming out of Florida right now is still encouraging. As I mentioned, even with the storm issues that we had in Florida and, you know, we're housing prices and insurance and costs and everything else in Florida. If you do a two-year stack on Florida, in the fourth quarter, they were still up 2%. So, again, very encouraging for me. Builders in Florida, I really think it depends on where you are. So, for instance, if you're in, you know, there's a lot of people moving into South Florida, into Miami. Miami is a, that market is very good. you know, but it runs the spectrum, if you will. But overall, Florida is a cornerstone market for us. I think very soon will be the largest market that we have in terms of the installed base, and it's still a destination for homeowners. So, you know, I'm encouraged with that. Texas is the one that was, I think, surprising for a lot of people. The slowdown that we saw in Texas but it's also a bit bifurcated too, because it didn't, it wasn't universal in, you know, let's call it DFW and Austin, San Antonio and Houston. They all moved kind of at different rates.
We're starting to see, you know, the Dallas market, the Dallas market improved, the Austin market improved. Houston lags a little bit, but the near-term commentary out of Houston is that, you know, that there's some optimism on the new build side. Arizona and California, Arizona was encouraging. And if you remember, when pools really started to die off, Arizona was one of the first ones to drop. They seem to have firmed up. And California is okay. I don't look for a big change in California. In my mind, California is much more of a renovation market than it is going to be a new pool construction market.
Analyst Trey Grooms (Stevens): Got it. That's super helpful, Culler. So thank you for that. And second question, just putting a finer point on an earlier question on the top line cadence. It sounds like 1Q training pretty well, but it's still early. But just wanted to clarify, was hurricane repair activity still a major contributor to the 1Q25, perhaps to a lesser degree than the 4Q, but perhaps still enough to call out? Because if 1Q is training well in spite of this comp dynamic, obviously that would be a positive. And then maybe any thoughts on a first half or second half weighted top line profile relative to, you know, broader new res expectations, which at this point appear to be skewed more towards a modest second half uptick.
Management: Yeah, you're correct in your assumption that fourth quarter was a bigger, was a bigger lift fourth quarter of 24 storm related. They were still working. They were still working into first. So there was still some work that, most of which has been finished. The only exception to that would be the areas where, you know, the houses were completely destroyed and they had to get permitted to build a new house and the pools come last. So, you know, there's still some of that. But by and large, I would say the storm work or anything but complete destruction, you know, is certainly done by now. Most of it was done in the fourth quarter and some lagging. So when I look at, you know, when I look at first quarter, it's not like we had a huge comp to overcome. There are some, but again, that makes our results even more encouraging from a firmness of the market perspective. And then, you know, your comment on second half, first half, second half, it's really, frankly, it's just too early to say. There's so many, you know, there's so many factors in there that can affect the discretionary. So I'm talking about new pool construction and renovation and remodel, but rest assured that the majority of our business is driven from the maintenance and repair, and I think that there is more than ample opportunity, and quite frankly, I think the business performs well in that area, and we've also added capabilities which should allow us to continue to take share.
Analyst Garik Shamoy (Loop Capital): Thanks for taking my question. I'm wondering if you could update us on what you're assuming for new sales center openings in 2026, and just given the more muted demand environment, have your expectations on the ROI on the new sales centers changed at all versus more normalized demand periods?
Management: Yeah. So when I look at the number of locations, I mean, Melanie gave a range of five to eight. You know, I would tell you, I don't know that it'll be more than eight. I mean, there could be a scenario, I guess, where it could be, but it's highly unlikely at this point based on the capacity investments that we have already made and the footprint that we have. I think our focus is more about execution this year and driving growth in the facilities that we have. As you know, we have a very disciplined process that goes with every new facility open. There is a pro forma, there's a budget. That pro forma and budget are carried forward. So the facility that we've opened in the last couple of years, the operating expectations and budgets associated with them were not adjusted. You know, I looked at some of the facilities that we would have opened in 2022 when things were, when there was a lot more new pool construction. You know, if I look at some of those, we had to go back and say, well, maybe our expectation on new pool construction growth was a little bit too aggressive.
But basically anything in the last couple of years, you know, the number, you know, the number is the number. So I think the team is really focused on execution and realizing what the commitments were in the pro formas that were submitted to fund those. And when I look at new ones, so I look at anything that we may do this year, I mean, we, as I mentioned in my comments, I think we've kind of sharpened our expectations on return on investment and making sure that when we go out and do a branch, I mean, we're going to open new branches again in 2026, without a doubt. Are we going to open as many? No, we're not going to open as many. Will there be a lot of attention paid to the ones that we opened, you know, for the last couple of years to make sure that we're realizing benefit on those? Absolutely. So the amount of attention and scrutiny on new locations right now is and should be pretty high.