Q4 2025 Earnings Call — March 17, 2026
Brian Lee (Goldman Sachs): Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I appreciate all the updates here. Lots going on. Excuse me. Maybe just first one. You mentioned a lot of progress toward commercialization. I know there's a lot of focus around kind of the pipeline and customer status. Jake, can you maybe speak to where that sits today? Any new additions or conversion into binding agreements and any incremental visibility into more of that happening in 2026?
Craig (Management): I would say that, you know, clearly META was an important anchor point towards that commercialization progress, as you mentioned. And kind of based on that, you know, we continue to have conversations not only with Meta but with other potential customers, both those we've announced and other ones that we're continuing to progress. But really, it is important that we think that, you know, Meta being an important anchor customer for us and the fact that we can do more not only in the Ohio location, but also with some of our kind of behind the meter on campus customers. And not only in the data center space, but there's a lot of work going on with US military, predominantly in Alaska, but not limited to there, as well as other industrial customers.
It does look like Jake's jumped back on. Jake, I went ahead and answered the question since I think you got disconnected.
Jake (Management): Yeah, it's perfect. I would say, I think at the end of the day, you know, there's a pretty healthy pipeline that continues to kind of grow in different places. And I think one of the dynamics that's important is having, you know, Meta as one of the kind of basically lead customer helps others want to come follow and kind of repeat that because sometimes finding the first customer is the biggest hurdle to get into. It creates a pretty powerful dynamic. And I think on top of that, like the locationing and how we've built the strategy around, you know, where we see a lot of opportunity in Ohio is going to continue to kind of grow and scale with us.
Brian Lee (Goldman Sachs): And then just a second question on the CapEx guidance here. The $350 to $450 million in 2026, it's a pretty meaningful pickup. Again, lots going on, and it seems like some areas accelerating. Can you maybe just provide a breakdown of where that CapEx is being allocated? You mentioned a couple different locations. And then how should we think about the cadence into 2027 and future years off of this level? And then maybe just curious how much of the capex being allocated to the meta-Piketon site in Ohio. Thank you, guys.
Craig (Management): Yeah, so Brian, I'm not going to provide a kind of a business unit by business unit or project by project breakdown at this point. And part of that is, you know, we're still doing a lot of work kind of refining cost estimates for certain projects as well as kind of progressing procurement activities across those projects. And it kind of feels like with where we are commercially, it would be good to kind of let those progress before throwing project bogeys out there as we're progressing procurement strategies. But that being said, it's progressing things across all three business units. But clearly, the Idaho project is an important piece of that spend, just given the criticality of giving that first power project up and off the ground.
But we are also starting some preliminary work in places like Ohio for the metapowerhouses. And there's also quite a bit of work that's underway in recycling for the potential project in Tennessee, things we're doing to get isotope projects off the ground. And there's also some scoping capex available for some of those fuel projects that Jake mentioned across HALU, plutonium, and transuranic fuels. In terms of, you know, 26 to 27, you know, I think, you know, given the project pace of delivery, you know, I do think that we'll, you know, continue to see CapEx that, you know, will be, you know, at those levels. But it's really just a reflection of multiple projects going on in multiple dimensions across all three business units.
Jake (Management): Yeah, and I'll just echo. I think that's an important part about the positioning we have and also, like, the, you know, frankly, the ability to move more quickly and scale into the opportunity space as it is here and kind of set the direction and set ourselves up for a very long-term success by flexing into all of that is, I think, a very important thing to be doing, which is great that we're in the position to do it.
Dimple Gassai (Bank of America): Good evening. Appreciate you taking the question here, Tim. Just a question on the regulatory strategy here, right? You know, can you give us a status update on the COLA timing and the PDC topical report review? Like, how do you sequence the DOE authorization at INL with future NRC licensing for subsequent sites? And on the same topic, did, you know, the government shutdown at the end of last year, and some of the staffing constraints that we heard of at the DOE and NRC move any internal licensing, you know, timelines or anything, and does this change the schedule at all in terms of deployment or filings or anything? That's the first question. Thank you.
Jake (Management): Yeah, I think, I appreciate the question. There's a couple things in regulatory that are important. I think there's like, look, there's still, I think sometimes some confusion about DOE authorization, recency licensing, and how these things all fit together. The key thing is DOE authorization allows us to do the most important thing, which is build, which is learned by building now in a faster path, which is what we just talked about and shared a lot of information on. The progress we've been able to make on the ore plant wouldn't have happened without that pathway going forward.
And in many ways, arguably, this is the way the policies were set up a long time ago. And it dates back even, you know, even a little more recently, but still some time ago. Back in 2018, there was the bill time to pass into law and finance law called the nuclear energy innovation capability act and that's at the stage for using Department of Energy capabilities and resources, including the regulatory authorization side to support kind of the first of the kind of build because do we have just a wider range of regulatory experience and flexibility.
And now, you know with the executive orders they directed a pretty clear approach and prioritization of DOE to leverage that and build the capabilities to do that, which frankly, they largely already had. It just said, put them to use to support these things, which is amazing because it's completely shattered the paradigms of the past. It's really illuminated a lot of the significant regulatory inefficiencies that have existed. On top of that, it sets a good pathway for us to then build that first plan.
But then also, what we expect to see coming from the NRC as part of executive orders there that build on all the work from the advanced act before, are driving a lot of new regulatory pathways and development there that bridge from the DOE basically authorization itself. So we're expecting the NRC to fairly soon issue basically their approach, if you will, for converting a DOE authorized and built and operating facility to an NRC licensed facility. And we're in a great spot to be able to go through that and experience what that looks like.
That inherently is not like a COLA because you're not getting a license to build and operate the plant. The plant's already built. So it's really a conversion process, which is cool. But they have to do the safety review and they have to reference and leverage everything before. Not only that, but we've also been working to include and loop in the NRC into our basically regulatory review with DOE. So they're seeing how it's done and they're getting experience watching and shadowing those pieces.
Which is pretty powerful. And this is a key kind of opportunity to go, I think, faster. It's really, it's hard to overstate the value of focusing on actually moving out of the way of sort of if you think about what a nuclear company historically would have to do, what our product was, if you really looked at it objectively before these opportunities existed. Our first product was really more built towards shipping permitting applications, right, paperwork.
Now, because of the DOE authorization approach, it's building while doing that, which allows us to learn and iterate way more quickly. Because naturally, things come up and evolve, and that helps you learn the really hard things that are actually really important to, like, deployment and scale. Now, all that also translates very effectively to what we're going to do with the NRC in Ohio.
And I think what's pretty clear is DOE and their approaches and the milestones we've hit with them show that they can do a safety review of surging fast reactors. And they've done a lot of those before because they oversaw the power plants that we build our legacy off of. On top of that, the energy is also shown by recent developments that they've had, including, for example, the construction permit work with TerraPower, that they can do that work as well.
And looping them into this and leveraging the experiences and expertise that DOE has, because DOE has done this stuff before, is quite constructive and quite efficient, frankly. So we're waiting to see the new framework from the NRC to start executing down the pathway of preparing to convert a license. But in parallel, we continue to work through effectively developing out the combined license to submit for Ohio.
That said, it's very important to also flag something else. Part of the executive order is there's significant regulatory work and rewriting going on that could significantly influence our approach in a constructive and productive way that we would expect to reduce costs and timelines, as well as add additional regulatory confidence and certainty. So that is all a very live situation as we speak, and we're watching eagerly as various things flow out from the NRC on that front.
But it's fair to say that that's probably going to be quite constructive, but also have some tweaks, if not more significant changes on our actual regulatory, I'll call it semantic strategy. In other words, we still get an NRC license, but the vehicles by which we might do that may be a bit different because of what's happening at the NRC.
That said you know we've been preparing and continuing to go through the pathway of pre-application that addresses general and somewhat generic or cross-cutting issues that are important for licensing for us. And those will set the stage for us to actually have, you know, reference those and whatever application structure takes place going forward from the NRC. Again at this point, you know we still expect a part 52 combined license. But that's just because we haven't seen what the new menu of options are going to look like as well, which we expect to happen over the course of the next few months, and then we'll adapt kind of a strategy from there.
But a couple of key things that we see are obviously just having the experience of going through the Aurora plant in Idaho under DOE authorization, going through the DOE regulatory process, having the NRC part of it, taking an iterative approach, learning by actually building and scaling that, and then applying that outward. On top of that, we're also getting experience from NRC licensing already on the isotope side, having obtained an NRC license now. It's a great win.
To your latter part of your question, Nipul, yeah, we did face some delays on that with that license application back in the fall during the shutdown. But now we have the license in hand, and off we go. I don't see any of the other effects that are, you know, frankly, at this point materially affecting our progress on the other activities that we have going on with the NRC and with DOE. But that was definitely something that was noted.
And then the last thing I'll just say is one important thing, too, that's very helpful is, you know, in the current frameworks, which may evolve and change a little bit, or frankly a lot, possibly, the approaches with what we're licensing and the work we've been doing on the isotope side, not just the material handling license, but the actual production reactor, like basically the full commercial version of Groves that we've spent some NRC pre-application time with, that has a different pathway than what the commercial Aurora power plant version has.
And having the experience that we gained across both of those and what we're gaining on the recycling side and what we've done on fuel fabrication, is very helpful because we see a whole spectrum of different parts of the NRC and can cross-connect best practices and help guide things from our development of an application as well as our engagement with them in the review process. And that helps in many, many ways in terms of some scaling efficiencies and bringing best practices from various business units across. And that's pretty unique for us because we're taking on that broad set of projects.
So, yeah, that's kind of the way I'm seeing that landscape evolve and how all this is moving forward.
George Gianakris (Canaccord Genuity): Hi, Oklahoma team. Thank you so much for taking our questions. You mentioned in the past that about 70% of the aurora powerhouse components are being sourced from non-nuclear supply chains, which is, I think you brought to it into the picture. Is there any update on what the 75 megawatt reactor capex should look like in the not a complete update, maybe any early indication on the dollars per kilowatt there. Thank you.
Jake (Management): Yeah, I mean, I think this is one of the things that's actively evolving from, you know, where we're at in terms of the building cycle and what we're seeing is doable. And also what we're seeing, you know, can be done to either move some timelines to the left and build it faster and pay more to do that or not, right? But generally speaking, speed is a very important thing for us. So that's how we're trying to focus on this.
This also gives us a lot of insights into then what we're going to do from a more, I would say, optimized strategy with the Ohio plants that would allow us to scale those according to, you know, what makes the most sense from sort of like the experiences learned from the Idaho plant. So what that's all to say is, you know, we're going to have more information as we continue to get into the actual deeper works beyond some civil and prep works and have some relevant updates that come accordingly as I get deeper into it.
But, you know, what we've learned on the procurement side is we've been able to find ways to pull schedule to the left in different ways constructively. We've been able to find ways to look at how some things can be accelerated. But one aspect of that is sometimes it helps the fact that we have the Aurora planes in Ohio coming afterwards because it can maybe accelerate some things here in Idaho to help us with know other components and other parts and other sourcing for scanning those to the other Ohio plants and maybe having some benefits that happens that way.
So, the general view we have is it's evolving as we go through on this and as we develop and enhance the relationships we have and we look at different angles of attack on the different fronts of what drives costs and what doesn't and some things are, candidly, not worth necessarily driving the modernization for the first plant that we'd like to see in terms of the actual supply chain and the procurement of it.
So we might pay a little bit more to move faster and other things that is worth doing that. It's a bit of a dynamic situation that we're continuing to evolve and look at. At the end of the day, though, like my, you know, my view is like, generally speaking, all of these things can live, like pretty much every part outside of the fuel can live outside of the nuclear conventional supply chain.
But I think what's really important is I think that paradigm has actually been sort of inverted as of late, because we're seeing growth in the industry for the first time in a while. So you're actually seeing folks bring forward more disruptive approaches in kind of taking away some of the legacy models and approaches that were driving significant costs and inefficiencies by sort of locking into the status quo across different suppliers in different parts of the entire sort of value chain, if you will.
And a pretty cool thing that we're seeing is that we can actually get to be a lot more thoughtful engagement from our partners about how to do that and more constructive engagement about knocking out some of the synthetic like nuclear cost multipliers that have existed before. I know I say this a lot but it's hard to overstate the value of modernizing, of basically taking out some of those nuclear cost multipliers right the quote unquote nuclear idiot index if you will is really really high and is right to be changed by changing how we design, how we try to minimize and reduce parts that come in with some of the typical nuclear classifications to them by taking advantage of passive and inherent safety features, but also by modernizing how our suppliers and ourselves actually deliver those plans.
But we're finding that there are some places where, you know what, just easier to deal with what's legacy for the Idaho plant to get it up and running because that's more important. But that sets the stage for them how we can actually solve that problem in Ohio because we learned the best practices to do that. So it's pretty interesting to see that combo sort of evolving and taking shape.
Generally speaking though we're seeing a very different way of engagement across most of the supply chain and not having some of the conventional legacy requirements and what I really mean by that is not being a light water reactor is actually really constructive counterintuitively a value of that is not having to play in the legacy supply chains with the historical cost structures in place there that's actually worth a ton because it gives us a lot more flexibility.
Because we're not buying light water reactor parts by and large. I mean, yes, there's some similarities, but we're not a light water reactor. So a lot of it's different. And that gives us a lot more flexibility. And it also helps us focus on where do we need to flex into building ourselves? What parts make the most sense to buy to go faster or build ourselves and maybe build ourselves to scale and build ourselves to deconstrain supply chains or build ourselves just to be cheaper?
So it's an active, you know, growth aspect of the business, and it's also how we're looking at, you know, not just sort of the capital cost, you know, modeling and data sets, but also the long-term, you know, cost structures of the business and also, like, opportunities in the business.
Ryan Fingst (B Reilly Securities): Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Somewhat of a follow up to some of the comments there, Jake. For the agreement with Meta, they ended up choosing two sodium cooled reactor developers following their nuclear RFP process. Can you rehash some of the benefits of your design and why Meta might have chosen it?
Jake (Management): Yeah, I think the answer right now is the fact that we've got, you know, I think they see the benefit of certain fast reactor technology between us and TerraPower, right? That's just repeating what you said, but basically, you know, I think that translates across a couple of vectors. One is the technical maturity, something that's vastly underappreciated, even by, you know, a lot of nuclear experts.
The fact is, you know, as a society, we've built a lot of these plans. We've learned a lot about what doesn't work and what does work. And in the U.S., notably the experiences we got through EBR2 and FFTF, the ability that those plants had to achieve pretty exciting operational characteristics, both in terms of operating capacity factor, in terms of occupational dose rates, in terms of how to service and run those plants, right? Their operating capacity factors were competitive and exceeded, in many cases, light water plants at the time, which shows a lot of the inherent benefits of the technology itself.
And it's the only technology that's really been able to do that. And on top of that, I think there's a clear trajectory on the cost benefits of sodium being a relatively, you know, materially benign fluid with commonly available seals. In other words, you can use it and it's quite, you know, compatible with stainless alloys. That's great in terms of opening up supply chains and reducing costs and avoiding major cost drivers of very exotic alloys you might need if you didn't have those benefits.
And then also not being pressurized and then having the benefits of being able to operate at relatively higher temperatures and then the features that come from that for passive heat rejection through the phenomenal heat transfer characteristics that sodium has, as well as operating at higher temperatures and what you can do to reject heat to air because you're at slightly higher temperatures.
So all in all, it translates to a lot of, generally speaking, cost benefits, as well as the strong operational history and high technology readiness. I think those are big features there.
Brian (Management): Maybe just a couple of ads there. I think, you know, as we continue to emphasize in calls like this, you know, the importance of having multiple field pathways, I think, was another important point of distinction and being able to have proof points against those pathways. And I think another important part on META was, you know, already having a ROFA in place and access to land in Ohio. I think was another important advantage and that we've leveraged that land access even more with, you know, what we could potentially do with Centris.
Vikram Begri (Citi): Hi. Good evening, everyone. I have two questions. I'll ask them together. First, maybe for you, Craig. Can you talk about the timing of Aurora ML? It appears timeline shifted slightly to the right with a change in language from late 27 to early 28. Now it says 2028. Am I reading that right? And what led to the shift in timing? Also, I see it's a 75 megawatt reactor. Can you talk about what the CAPEX requirements for this reactor will be or when you will have a greater clarity into CAPEX requirement?
And then secondly for you, Jake, I see you conducted a fast spectrum plutonium criticality experiment. Can you share what that entails and your expectation of timing of plutonium allocations that we've been looking forward to? Thank you.
Craig (Management): Yeah, Vic, you know, in terms of the last bit of your question, you know, I'll take that first, you know, that we're still doing a lot of work, and Jake kind of mentioned this dynamic of challenging, you know, the cost versus the timeline because, you know, trying to bring timelines forward could have a cost element to it and we're really trying to balance both of those pieces, and I think we'll have more information to share around what the cost of that first asset looks like later this year, as well as you know how we look to bring costs down on future deployments.
And in terms of the timeline, I think I've been pretty consistent in the various investor meetings that I've been in that we're targeting a 2028 timeline. We know it's an aggressive target, but we feel like the industry and our customers are pushing us towards being able to hit those timelines. And it's also, I think, important why we're doing things on projects like growth where we can learn how to bring down capital costs and learn how to bring down project timelines as well.
I think one thing we saw with the, like what we're having happen with, you know, I think that basically the timeline elements are, as we're putting all these things together, right, like we're, we have a path of being able to start hitting important construction milestones this year, doing some plant commissioning work.
But getting the full plan in the nuclear heat production just is going to really happen in 2028, right? And it's just where it's going to be. So I think at this point, we're seeing that lineup to make that kind of the case. We're always looking at different ways that might pull parts of the schedule to the left, and there might be some things that kind of help with that, but a lot of this gets to how we can execute on, you know, building this thing and doing it quickly and moving through learning iterative processes relatively quickly.
And I think it's important because we're trying to also make sure we capture lessons learned and not design the fly to implement all those things, but that help us with Ohio. And that's important because it means that the palm plants are going to, you know, obviously show this improvement significantly. And that's a key thing about small reactors, right? The cost and timelines iterations are just way lower. And that's how you really drive learning and scale as we see everywhere.
Jake (Management): Onto the plutonium front. Yeah, it was pretty cool. We got to partner with Los Alamos National Laboratory and throw out to the Nevada National Security Site. Basically what we got to work with was a small plutonium, like basically metal assembly that we used uranium as a reflector and plutonium was the primary fuel and gore and got to run it through some criticality, basically benchmarks and tests as well as some reactivity measurements, which means you're actually taking the system, putting some power into it, heating it up a little bit and looking at the thermal expansion and the other effects that cause it to shut itself down naturally.
It was important because while a lot of that data has been out there, doing it in this kind of way helped us get more fidelity in certain ranges of particular interests for us relevant to our use, as well as just to enhance our overall models for validation purposes. It was pretty cool because it was really doing that, right? I think we were putting in a couple of kilowatts at most in terms of thermal power, but in a very small system that's literally very small, it matters.
And it was able to heat the system up and we got to see all those insanely fast dynamics and responses. I've gotten to spend a little time around like a high and restraining fast reactor system in my past. But this thing was even faster and how it behaved is very, very tightly responsive, which was awesome. And the way they ran it was just a pure Testament to like how, you know, robust a small type of coupled fast reactor is in terms of like inherent feedbacks and all those benefits.
So that was helpful. We anticipate there's gonna be more work there that just adds more fidelity to basically improve reactive performance and reduce some certainties throughout the system that ultimately translate to, you know, dollars saved or more dollars earned right or both, and then the other part of it is.
With the plutonium awards, you know, we're expecting those things to kind of progress that other Department of Energy is going through the active kind of reviews of the request for applications they put out and we're pretty excited about, you know, our positioning for that, but. Timelines, I think, you know, I think we'll watch it eagerly this quarter coming up, but I think it depends on a couple of factors that are still evolving.
Jeffrey Campbell (Seaport Research Partners): Hi, Jake. Hi, Craig. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is will the deconversion discussions you've noted result in Centris increasing its enrichment capabilities from its current small volumes, or do you envision the deconversion capability as independent of any particular uranium enrichment supplier?
Jake (Management): I mean, from the deconversion technology side that we've worked through and, you know, we've been developing out, it's pretty flexible. I mean, it's based on a, you know, a UF6 input. And, you know, try to supply some things we think can help scale and drive costs more effectively at a facility level. So it's pretty flexible.
Part of why we explored it with Centris to start is just given the positioning we have in Ohio, the fact we're going to be building a lot of plants right there by where they have it. There's some significant economies of scale of putting deconversion there, as well as potentially fuel fabrication there and the reactors there. You have a pretty cool campus that goes from enrichment to deconversion to fabrication to actual reactors, all in that general area.
And in a very attractive market to be in overall. So that's how we see kind of the opportunity on that. I think the space we see is, I think we've got some cool technology pieces. We're eager to explore what that looks like to integrate with theirs, like their facility and their approach. The idea would be, of course, to support their significant growth and expansion. But yeah, we see this as being, you know, broadly suited for any kind of uranium hexafluoride.