Q3 2025 Earnings Call — November 10, 2025
Analyst Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets): Hi. Good morning, everyone. Good evening, Josh and Lester in Argentina. I had a question about PPG. So the capital intensity, $22,000 a ton CapEx is very low. It's like half the capital intensity when you look at public project estimates out of other projects in Argentina, let's say Rio Tinto Rincon or stuff in the States. I was wondering, why is the capital intensity half the cap ex of other greenfield-fired projects in Xiaoshan? How would you compare the economics of this project, PPG, versus Mariana?
Executive Sam: Thanks for the question, Joel. Maybe I'll start and then pass it over to Xiaoshan. So yeah, the capex intensity is much lower than recent examples of chemical processing outside of China. I think part of the explanation here is driven by the quality of the resource. So the first phase of Pazuelos is benefiting from considerably higher grades, upwards of high 500 milligrams per liter lithium, so most similar to Kachari-Oloraz. The capex also reflects the use of new processing technologies, which Xiaoshan can elaborate on, including SX-based DLE, which is designed and built in modular units engineered and constructed in China with the support, obviously, of Ganfeng. So this technology is designed to help reduce plant footprint and simplify purification requirements. So I think those are the two major drivers towards the CapEx intensity. But Xiaoshan, maybe you can elaborate on that and then also share your experience with Marianne and Kachari.
Executive Xiaoshan: Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Sam. Yeah, you're right. Actually, if you look at our projects in everywhere in the world, actually, we have a relatively lower tax density compared with other Western companies projects. So that's because of the gunsons. We have our own in-house engineering team and we have an in-house process. So that's probably one of the reasons. And also we have to build two projects in Argentina, which is not easy place. They have lots of challenges, especially you don't have the existing human resources for these lithium projects in the region. So we bring some of the talents from China and together with our local teams successfully.
Okay. Yeah, and to your question about comparison between Mariana and the PPG, I would say PPG has higher concentration of the lithium. Mariana has a lower, but Mariana has a much higher pumping rate. So each one has their own advantage. And so both projects are good projects.
Analyst Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets): And then following up from that, and otherwise, Cachorriola rose as well, I believe at some point in 2026, you're going to test this hybrid pond plus DLE system with a small plant at Cachorriola Rose. I think it's 2026. And can you talk about, as you progress PPG here, will you wait for results on that pilot or demo plant at Casheiros to learn what it looks like in Argentine brine before you move out PPG so you get more refined estimates for PPG and see how it affects Casheiros as well?
Executive Sam: I don't think we have to wait. We don't need to wait. Sorry, sorry, go ahead, please.
Executive Xiaoshan: No, I was just going to say, you know, the demo plan is obviously a really important de-risking step for this new technology being incorporated into our production process, both in stage two and PPG. But, you know, clearly we expect this to be done in a way that will integrate with the broader construction timeline. But, Shashank, maybe go ahead and, you know, you can share on the confidence Ganpeng has in this technology and what's been done in China.
Executive Xiaoshan: Yeah, we have a commercial project in China using this DLE technologies already. Many times test on the PBG brines. So we think PBG brines, we don't have to wait until the final results from the Kochari projects, DLE projects.
Executive Jason: Yeah, Justin, just as you said, it's a proven technology, and so we don't have to wait for the demonstration time from Coach Ali. And actually, this is a hybrid process combined with Pounds and the soil extraction. So the soil extraction process is proven in China in commercial scale. And also, actually, it's a more simplified process. we will see like technically it's like a even like a simpler and straightforward so yeah we are we are going to just like a go ahead to like start the construction once like we have the permitting financing and other things ready on culture on ppg project.
Analyst Katie LeChapelle (Canaccord Genuity): Hi, all. Thanks for taking my questions. First off, congrats on the release of the scoping study and the environmental approval. I was just wondering if you could provide a more detailed overview of the permitting of the asset, what additional permits, if any, are required. And then maybe with having Jason on the call, I'd love to hear his vision about the progression of the PPG project, and how you guys balance priorities going forward in PPG versus Contrario-Larraz Phase II.
Executive Sam: Maybe I'll take the second part of that question, then turn it over to Jason to comment on permitting. You know, I think from a sequencing perspective, the fact is both these projects market needs low cost, driven forward by a proven operating team in Argentina. And so for both, we're advancing similar application timelines, which is the first half of next year. From a development standpoint, we expect these projects to be broadly comparable, each with distinct advantages. So for PPG, obviously, it's further ahead. The permit was secured last Friday. And also benefits from very significant historical investments that Gantt Bank's carried out on well-fueled infrastructure. And then further benefits from the advantages of Pozuelos being considerably higher grade. I'd say for XR, we're obviously also advancing a RIGI application. We expect to have a development plan similar to that for PPG. first half of next year, and we'll provide more visibility on the sequencing into 2026. But as a general statement, we're confident both assets provide meaningful flexibility and optionality to both Lithium Argentina and Gadfeng. The how and the when of this growth is underpinned by responsibility to our shareholders and maximizing shareholder value. So maybe Jason, answering the first part of the question, which was related to permitting and what else is required to push ahead with the PPG project.
Executive Jason: Yeah, Sam, yes. For start the construction of PPG, of course, the most important is to obtain the approval of the DIA, which is the environmental permit. As Sam said, we obtained that approval last Friday and to submit the application in September 2024, it takes us like 14 months to walk through the technical approval and environmental approval and also the community consultation and finally public hearing. So 14 months, you can see it's like a record, like a fast approval procedure and we have achieved compared with other peers in this region. So we can see this project is technically sound and well received and supported by the local government and the communities. So looking forward, what other permits do we need? And actually, with this, we can start the construction immediately. But there are two more things important we need to obtain. One is, as Sam said, we need to apply for the REGI, and we are working on that. We started the communication with the national government already. So the REGI application will be submitted in Q1 next year, and we anticipate it won't take long to be approved, maybe a few months by estimation. That is one thing.
With that, we can start the construction of the project. And one more thing is we need also to obtain the water permit. And so that's like we are already working on the water balance and we just need to drill more water wells. And because this soil extraction process will require much less water consumption. So we don't see it's a problem. Compared with other process, the water consumption is the lowest. So that's like two more things we need for PPG project on the permit side.
Analyst Katie LeChapelle (Canaccord Genuity): Okay, great. Very clear, guys. Thank you.
Analyst Ben Isaacson (Scotiabank): Thank you very much, and good morning. I have a few quick ones, if that's okay. So
the first question is the overall capex for PPG is $3.3 billion for all three phases. exactly one third of that for the first phase, I would have thought there would be some economies of scale and phase one would be a little more expensive and two and three would be a little lower. Can you just talk about that?
Executive Sam: Yeah, the CapEx for the entire project in each phase represents the benefits of scale, but the brine characteristics do change over time. So the CapEx for phase one does incorporate infrastructure expenditures that will extend across all three phases. But as you go to phase two and phase three, which will be sourcing brine from Pasos Grandes, it comes at a lower concentration, and therefore the number of wells and the size of the ponds increase. So there is a bit of a trade-off there, and that explains the...
Analyst Ben Isaacson (Scotiabank): Great. That makes sense. Sorry, the second point is on the Essex plant itself. This is done in like a modular unit, so you don't see the same kind of economies of scale you would see in other projects. That's helpful. Thanks, Sam, for that one. Moving on, Cabochari, I believe GEMSA has what, an 8.5% interest. What is the likelihood that SALTA would somehow require some stake, and is there a negotiation on that, and how should we think about the dilution impact of that?
Executive Jason: Yes. So, yeah, we know that our province, like, no, they have no intention at all to negotiate a stake. And we didn't, like, even touch that point. And we didn't, like, we have, like, good communication with the provincial government. And we didn't see the provincial government of Salta wanted to bring that up to any lithium projects or like mining projects so far.
Analyst Ben Isaacson (Scotiabank): Great, and then I'll just switch quickly to Q3. So your cash costs were just a touch higher, about 3% higher to about 6,300. Production was a couple hundred tons lower. Can you just talk about, was the reason, had production been stable? Would the cash costs have been flat? Why did the cash costs increase? And why did production take a little dip down?
Executive Sam: Yeah, I mean, the two are very much related. So we had slightly lower, 200 tons less production than Q2, so that does increase unit costs. I think from a production standpoint, you know, we're still making optimization changes. These are small, but from a month-to-month basis do increase some variability. I'd say the optimization efforts that we've made in Q3, or sorry, Q2, have delivered. So three in the last four months, we've been operating above 90% capacity. And obviously, when we're pushing volumes up, we see a kind of a relation to cost coming down. So on the cost side, slightly higher than Q2, largely due to the slightly less volume. But we're seeing costs continue to trend down.
Analyst Ben Isaacson (Scotiabank): Great. And if I can just throw one last one in there. So just back to the PPG project. um can you just talk about sam how do you uh how do you envision minimizing equity dilution risk for large shareholders in terms of the capital structure and funding your uh your one-third portion of uh of phase one of ppg thank you.
Executive Sam: Yeah, I would I would highlight that libya argentina has a pretty strong track record of executing strategic and discipline financing. So if you look at, for example, how we funded the $1 billion investment into stage one, we did this thoughtfully. We leveraged partnerships, off-takes, project-level debt to minimize shareholder dilution. We're certainly going to take the same disciplined approach here as we advance our growth plans. One of the differences today, obviously, is we're doing so from a much stronger position. Having successfully brought on stage one into operation, having Argentina's RIGI investment framework, a more mature lithium market. And more specifically at PPG, under our agreement to consolidate these three PPG assets, Genfeng and LAR have committed to working together to secure third-party capital to finance statewide development costs. And we'll do this by leveraging Genfeng's global customer relations and access to low-cost financing. So we're obviously going to be very responsible in terms of how we do this. we see a tremendous amount of value in the projects that we have and we'll be very disciplined and careful to ensure that shareholders are rewarded and avoid dilution.
Analyst Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank): Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Sorry if I missed it, but could you talk about what would be the IIR, like the return, if you were to be using market price at the $18,000 per kilo or per ton? And maybe if you can talk also about the rationale of using the $18,000 given where the market is trading at.
Executive Sam: So, yeah, the sensitivity is around that. At today's, well, at $12,000 per ton, I think we're close to that today in the spot market in China. The project would have over 20% IRR. I think that the rationale for choosing 18 is, one, it's aligned with third-party forecasts and street consensus, and it seems to be a level that would seem to be required to incentivize enough production over the next decade. So it's a price level at which would result in a 15% IRR for kind of the last marginal project contributing to that 1 million tons. But seeing that we have Xiaoshan on the line, maybe I can turn it over to you, Xiaoshan, and just comment on you know, the use of $18,000 per ton as a long-term price and how that squares with how you're seeing the market today and how you're seeing the lithium market evolving over the next, you know, five to 10 years. I know it's a difficult question, but I think you're pretty well positioned to provide some perspective.
Executive Xiaoshan: Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Sam. Yeah, I think if you look at it from the demand side and also the supply side, the demand side is still very strong growth and not only the eva but also the energy storage this is we see probably in the future even bigger than eva demands for lithium so that's one thing from the from demand side from supply side we see lots of uncertainty for those projects on the pipeline. And we know the lead time for development of those projects takes quite longer time. I also talked to some of the people from Chile. In Chile, to get environmental permits for a new project, at least it takes five years. So that's the reason we think $18,000 is, I think, is reasonable. It's reasonable for long-term pricing. Even today, it's still tough. if you look at china today um the the price has been increased seven six seven percent already for the leasing carbonate so so that's the we believe 18 is reasonable if you also consider there's other companies new projects on the pipeline um in for instance in australia and for some other projects in the us or canada all those projects we believe that they probably will require much even higher price to incentive them to build those projects.
Analyst Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank): Thank you. Maybe if I can ask a second one, just more on the quarter. What about an update on the material quality? So I know that you still have that discount for like purity removal. Can you just talk again what the expectations are in terms of timing to come to like a battery grade here?
Executive Sam: Yeah, I mean, this year was about operating stability. So we're very pleased with what we're seeing at the plant. There has been some, you know, gradual improvement in the quality of the product. And based on the current pricing and reprocessing arrangement we have with Ganfeng, the reprocessing costs are quite low. I think, you know, longer term looking out to back end of 26, 27, Ganfeng and LAR are very much aligned in the ability to be able to supply global customers directly. So, obviously, that would mean that we would need to deliver battery-grade products. So, it's still in the vision. We're not there yet, but we're making gradual improvements towards that goal.
Analyst David Deckelbaum (TD Cowen): Congrats to everyone. Thanks for taking my questions today. I was curious just with the PPG phase development approach. It looks like every phase is between four and five years apart from each other. Is that flow sheet constrained, or is that theoretically market and finance constrained? How are you thinking about the timing of Phases 1, 2, and 3? And it doesn't seem like necessarily there's a change in the assumptions around cadence of bringing projects online post-permanent.
Executive Sam: Thanks for the question. I think it is theoretical and finance constrained. feel free to provide your view.
Executive Xiaoshan: Yeah, Sam, you made a very good point. And just add a few more. It's technically, we have one team that continues to work on one project, finish it, and bring it online, and check everything, ramp it up, and then we move to phase two. That's like more, let's say, it's more like smooth. So that's just one thing. Another thing is like each phase, for each phase, phase two, phase three, we also need like to obtain the construction permit and the provisional government would like to see we construct the phase one first and then move to phase two and then phase three.
Analyst David Deckelbaum (TD Cowen): Yes, thank you. Appreciate that. And then, Shoshana, if I could ask you a question. You remarked earlier that perhaps you could see that we're in the early stages of ESS, but you think it could be larger than the EV market. Could you provide some more color around that? When do you think that the market is going to see this grand inflection on demand for energy storage, particularly on the lithium side? Is that something that you anticipate in the next decade, or is that something that you think is going to be more impactful sooner?
Executive Xiaoshan: Yeah, probably will be sooner. But even for the EV, today, people only focus on the passenger cars. But actually, China, not only the passenger cars, but all kind of transportation now is becoming electrified or going to be electrified in the next several years. If you look at heavy-duty trucks, this year, the electrical heavy-duty trucks grow more than 100% compared with the same time last year. So we know, of course, energy storage will have a much higher growth rate. But even for the multis, battery is also growing. And in China, the next several years later will be also other new demands for the boat, for the vessels will be also electrified. So it's difficult to predict which year energy storage will take over the demand, but we see probably within 10 years we believe that will come.
Analyst Mohamed Sidibe (National Bank): Omar Ali- Tomorrow team, and thanks for taking my question and congrats on the good coping study here just a question in terms of timing, I guess. Omar Ali- The targeting construction by the second half of 2026 order anything on the detailed engineering fund that we should be thinking about that are under critical past that would further the risk that one for 1 billion capex over the next call it six to 12 months.
Executive Jason: Yes. So, third factors are very critical on the construction timeline. And one is engineering. And right now, we pretty much finished all the detailed engineering for the pump and well-filled area. So, we will have all the joints by end of this year. And meanwhile, we are working on the detailed process, the internal in-house engineering team is working on that, and we will have that ready early next year. So you will see like on the engineering side, we are good. And also like another important is like the idea, the construction permit, the environmental permit, we already have it that week. And the next two factors, one is like a financing, hopefully like we will have it like the first half next year, and also REGI as we discussed, and we may have that approval by Q2, end of Q2 or early Q3 next year, then with all those key points, key milestones, we are ready to start. And that's why we say we're going to start the construction in second half next year.
Analyst Mohamed Sidibe (National Bank): Great. Thanks for that. And then maybe a question for both Sam and Wong here, just in terms of the sequencing of projects. How should we think about culture real or stage two maybe Mariana stage two and PPG stage one in terms of sequencing or projects. Could this be undertaken at the same time or it's more of a phasing approach for each of them, one coming after the other?
Executive Sam: Sure, I'll answer first but won't comment on Mariana. That's a campaign, 100% on project. Yeah, I mean, for XR stage two, Kachari overall stage two, the plan right now is to prepare a RIGI application and development plan to align with that RIGI application, which would be submitted in the first half of 2026. I think obviously coming back to one of the questions earlier about just how we're going to finance this, it's, you know, it's important to note that, you know, for PPG, we're both looking at third party capital. Likewise for stage two, I think there are different set of circumstances around options to finance that given that we have an existing operation for stage one. But underlining it all is like the how and the when of growing this. We're going to be extremely responsible for our shareholders. So that's from a financing perspective. From a team's perspective, I mean, Jason down in Salta, he's built up an incredible team who have just completed, you know, Mariana, and it's a separate team to XR. So I think from a personnel standpoint, we do have a good chance of advancing them in parallel, but obviously we're going to be able to share a lot more early next year around our defining our development plan for XR and be able to share a lot more in terms of visibility on specific sequencing steps for both projects.
Executive Jason: I don't know if, Jason, you want to share on Mariana. I think there was a question about stage two?
Executive Jason: Yeah. Right now, Mariana is still working on the ramp-up stage for the stage one. And it's going good. It's been good. And regarding stage two, the first thing we want to share is Mariana recently, we just updated the resource estimation. And the resource increased from $80 million to $13 million, up for more than 60%. And we still have a big potential in the deeper horizon, because we didn't drill deep enough. Right now, most of the wells just reach to 350 meters, and actually we can drill much deeper. And Mariana is unique because the pumping rate is very big. So the resource is not a bottleneck for Mariana. So, yes, indeed, we plan, we are planning for the expansion phase two and phase three, and we plan to put a package and apply for REGI. We will present that early next year. And then we were like looking at the market condition and also like the construction, like progress of other projects, such as PPG and. And then we will analyze and finally decide what will be the timeline for the expansion of stage two and stage three of Mariana.
Executive: With no further questions, this concludes our Q&A session. We thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.