Q3 2026 Earnings Call — November 5, 2026
Our first question comes from Colin Canfield with Cantor. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks for the question. Maybe let's start with the funded bookings progression. If you could just kind of walk through, as we think about the building blocks of funded bookings progression in 2027, how do we think about kind of the moving pieces between USCCA, international CCA, and then if there's any kind of initial orders that we should be expecting around expat manufacturing work. Thanks. Right. So on, Colin, I think your first question was on funding and booking progression. A significant amount of our work, I would say a significant majority of our work is tied to large projects program of record or production programs that are underway. And they're funded in the 2026 appropriation, and so they should not be materially impacted by the continuing resolution, which gives us confidence in what we're looking at there. On the CCA side, as I mentioned in my remarks, we definitely believe we're going to receive some additional Valkyrie orders in 2027. including international orders.
As far as the current bookings and backlog on that, also as I said in my prepared remarks, I have received something in writing from the customer. I cannot provide any more detail than what I provided on the production contract we received, the LRIP production contract. I'm sorry, I just can't, but you will see that when we provide the segmentation guidance. And when we report Q4, you're going to see that revenue ramp from that production contract in our guidance. That's what's anticipated. On your question on the expat or other ones like that, I can't comment on things like that at all because of NDAs. Got it. Thank you. Yes, sir.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead. Yeah, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Nice results. Eric, could you give us an update on, you know, how you're thinking about the hypersonics business scaling up? I think the original plan was, you know, generating close to $400 million in revenues this year and then jumping up considerably next year. You know, how are you thinking about that just given the budget environment? Yep. The business is doing fantastic. Peter. Fantastic. And net-net, we've received approximately $600 million in funding now already. So we are well on our path, as I said, to $700 million in revenue next year. We have a clear path. The risks to that that I see are supply chain. I don't see any flashing yellow lights there right now relative to rocket motors coming in and some of the materials for the glide vehicles coming in and range time. There are a lot of what are called DX rated programs right now that are taking priority even if you have slotted range time.
We haven't seen any hiccups on that yet, but I want to put that out there that if we have a mission scheduled for, I'm making this up for March and it's pushed to May or June, We could have something move on us just because of government priorities on the range. But other than that, the hypersonic business is looking really, really good. And I'm glad you asked. We won all three, Nemesis I, Nemesis II, and Kraken, three new programs that we're already underway on. So, so far, so good. Great to hear. And then just a quick follow-up on the Mighty Hornet, some pretty good. Pretty glowing press reports in Taiwan about the desire for the Mighty Hornet. How are you thinking about the production? You talked about production scaling up significantly in Oklahoma, but I think there's also some production potentially in Taiwan. Maybe you can give us some more details there. You're right. The press has been great. They're talking hundreds of them. That's out there. They're talking hundreds of them or more.
We The plan would be, if this happens, if it goes through, the plan would be the initial ones we will build in the U.S., but we will be, assuming we get State Department approval, I believe we will, with trade compliance, we will stand up a capability for them to be produced over in Taiwan, where Kratos will receive a license fee on the units produced. So that's how I see that one evolving, and we should have some more information for you based on the way things are moving when we report Q4 in February. Great. I'll jump back into Q. Thanks, Eric. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan with Jones Trading. Please go ahead. Hey, good evening. Eric, Deanna. Good evening, sir. Good evening. So the gap between the public and private defense tech world, you know, Andrew's $90 billion valuation earlier this month, How do you reconcile that? And then if we layer in the current political environment, how do we layer that in as well? That's an excellent and very thoughtful question. First of all, the U.S., because of where the industrial base is, we need more defense product companies and technology companies, including companies like Andral, to be successful. We need them to be successful. As I said in my prepared remarks, I don't know everything that Angel does because they're private. We're public. We have to do things in the light of day. They're not. But based on my understanding and based on I know what we have, like I said in my prepared remarks, Josh, there's no way I'd want to be any other company than Kratos. We, for our size, where we are in our growth trajectories, we have more production contracts, more programs of records. We're in hypersonic systems. People talk about other people's software.
We have OpenSpace, which is a crown jewel, and I believe we're all going to see this really take off in 2027. We have our propulsion business, obviously our drone business. I believe we're the highest value company, the most valuable company out there. I believe we are. As far as a disconnect between a private company and VC companies, I can't reconcile it. Hopefully, when some of these guys come public, their valuations will come with it. Investors will take a look at their valuations relative to Kratos and their capabilities relative to Kratos, and maybe then it will equalize more and we'll move up and be closer to them, which I think is appropriate based on the capabilities as I understand them. Got it. And then, you know, kind of a related question. You've got a billion forward and cash on the balance sheet. What do you need to execute on all these organic opportunities? And then, you know, what's dry powder for, you know, potential consolidation? All right. So first of all, we are absolutely fully capitalized and there are no more capital raises coming for the, I never say never, but for the foreseeable future. We are totally capitalized.
We are laser focused on internal execution. We are in a significant investment phase right now where we are basically winning virtually everything we're going after. And now is the time to build an incredible company that will have ultimate incredible cash flows. As I say, I see the lines crossing in 2029 when the production programs, the line is going up. It's going to cross the investment line, which should be going down by then. and we're going to be a significant sustained cash flow generator. I would see Kratos doing no significant acquisitions, none. We have no gaps in our gap analysis. When we do routinely every quarter, Deanna and I, with the division presidents, we do a gap analysis. We have no gaps. You will continue to see us do small, what I'll call tuck-ins, tuck-in acquisitions. These are primarily, these are not auctions, there are not bankers involved. Perfect. Thank you. Yes, sir.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Michael Tremoli with Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead. Hey, good evening, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Nice results. Eric, I know we all get kind of caught up here in CCAs and Unmanned and Valkyrie, but maybe I'm just looking. KGS Bookings, $1.9 billion year-to-date. I think you did $2.1 billion in 2025 and 2026 combined. I mean, if we look at what's really the engine of this company in a predictable fashion, I mean, what are you most excited about? I mean, it really seems like you've got a tremendous opportunity in the KGS segment, and obviously we've got the hypersonics, but maybe even just some color on what's driving that booking strength. Yeah. Some of the ones that are driving it, and thank you for saying that, and I really appreciate you taking a look at KGS because it is the flywheel of the company right now with multiple flywheels within it. Our C5ISR business, we are the merchant supplier of military-grade hardware for the Primes for virtually every air defense, missile, and radar system.
So when you Google a Raytheon system or a Lockheed system or a Northrop system, or Patriot or Integrated Battle Command System, or you take a look at Leidos' IFPIC Indirect Fire. We build a lot of that hardware for these guys, and that's really driving it. And that is seeing incredible strength, and it's going to continue to go up and to the right. Next is the space business. Our space business is killing it. It is absolutely killing it. I wish I could show you some of the opportunities we're chasing. I think we're going to win that aren't even in the backlog yet. It's incredible. The team is phenomenal. If there's any question of how technologically rich Kratos is, we're a technology company, take a look at our space team and what they're doing with that software. I mean, that is our lattice, if you will. And it is the crown jewel, and it is helping us run the table. And thirdly, KTT. This is a big deal that the GDK engine has received a classification, a name. This doesn't happen. The Air Force has come out. You will be second source on JASM. Take a look at the number of JASMs that are planning on being built.
The factory is coming online the second half of next year, right when EMD is going to begin and then LRIP will begin in 28, and that's going to be a new significant growth driver. And then, of course, there's the hypersonic business, which is just, it's unbelievable. And this is the poster child of Kratos being first to market with Aranis, first to market with Dark Fury, first to market with Zeus, being first to market with affordable systems. We're running the table. So those are the ones in KG. Yep, those are the ones. Okay. Just one more. I appreciate the conservatism with 27, still pretty compelling organic growth. Do you need reconciliation funding to accomplish any of those objectives? I know you talked about lame duck, you know, just kind of, we got the CR supply chain. Can you accomplish these growth objectives without reconciliation funding? Yeah, so assuming, so if you take a look at the 27 NDAA, the $1.15 trillion, You take a look at that. You take a look at the components in that, which, of course, we've done. Okay. If there are no material changes to that, to the NDAA, which I believe there's top-line agreement on the 1.15.
There's no material changes on the internals of that. We are in very, very, very good shape for 2027. We do not need a reconciliation bill to achieve our objectives. Got it. Perfect. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back in the queue. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Jonathan Sigmund with Stiefel. Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just on 27 a little bit more, you really quantified hypersonics. Everything's on track there. That gets you a big chunk of What's your 27 versus 26 revenue build should be? You've given us some breadcrumbs on missiles, but just can you talk a little bit about some of the other pieces that, you know, space and these other programs. Is that more growth that's 28 and beyond? Or is there anything in the portfolio that's dropping off next year that we should be aware of? Thank you. Yeah, there's... There's nothing dropping off. So let me give you the pieces of what we're highly confident in, and this is one of the reasons we were able to take the roll-up, which is very, very high, and guide to what we guided, which I think is very reasonable. Our C5ISR business. We have won numerous programs in the past three months. for missile systems, radar systems, air defense systems, and counter UAS systems. That is going to be a big driver for us in 2027. And we have those, and they're either in production or they're beginning in production.
At the end of last quarter, we received a very large new laser weapon system program with the Department of Energy. That is ramping. That will be a significant driver in 2027. Our space business. Take a look at the last two quarters book-to-bill ratios. We have won several multi-initial value, multi-hundred million dollar new space programs. I think if you take a look at our job request right now on our website, we have hundreds of open recs. Our space business has major program wins that are well funded that is going to drive this business. Next, our Israeli microwave business. This is not tied to the U.S. budget. This is tied to the Israeli Ministry of Defense. We all know they live in a bad neighborhood, and they are rearming. So that business is very, very solid for next year. And as you know, for Rafael and Israeli Aerospace Industries and Elbit and the Ministry of Defense, our microwave electronics are designed in on a substantial number of their missile systems, their radar systems, their air defense systems. So I'll stop there. There's four or five that are just bolted in by program. Thank you very much. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Anthony Valentini with Barclays. Please go ahead. Hey, Eric. Thanks for the question. In the past, you guys have put out some guidance where I think you've been conservative on Valkyrie. or in some cases I think it's included actually like no Valkyrie. What are you guys baking into 2027 for Valkyrie? How should we be thinking about it? Yeah, and so today we put out our consolidated guide for next year. We did not put it out by segment. As I said in my remarks, we expect our unmanned systems business where Valkyrie sits to be one of the primary growth drivers next year. There are a number of pieces that are included in there, including the turbojet engines in Q3 and Q4. You know, we're going to build a bunch in the first half and ship them in the second half, but also Valkyrie and also FireJet. So we are starting to include Valkyrie in the guide. We are starting to. But I want to emphasize, this is important, that going back to what Deanna said and what I said, that our guide that we're putting out is extremely conservative-based and comparable to what our internal forecast rolls up to.
If we're anywhere near what our internal forecast rolls up to, okay, which I told you in the guide where you put out today there's Valkyrie, if we get anywhere near to what the internal forecast rolls up to, you could look at Valkyrie as an additive to what we have today, taking in some of that conservatism if we're able to bring it in. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Mike Crawford with B. Reilly Securities. Please go ahead. Thanks. Could you give an update on progress of getting Prometheus Energetics off the ground? Absolutely. So we, that's in Crane, Indiana, as you know. We're tracking that I believe late in 27 we're going to have first fire of an energetic out there in 2027. And I've said previously that we look to go into production in the late 27 or early 28. I'm just going to keep saying early 28 to be conservative. I can't give you the program, but we have received second source on a very large program. So we've received it. So we have a very significant order. Obviously, we have our partner, Rafael, and what they're going to bring to Prometheus from a production standpoint. So we are tracking, and I continue to believe that we will be the first true, real, next merchant supplier of energetics and solid rocket motors in the United States, with our key differentiator being, Rafael is qualified already. Their systems are qualified.
Their processes are qualified, etc., etc., which takes a long time, which in addition to Rafael bringing their IP, those qualifications are going to jump up, start us to be first to market when the facility is ready. Thank you. And then just one more. You talked about tripling your production line in Oklahoma, but in Sacramento, you're Unmanned Systems President Steve Fendley presented at this Elroy Air Analyst Day in September where you would produce their unmanned hybrid drone when they're talking about commercial demand pipeline and more than 1,400 aircraft. Is that something you could build in Sacramento today or would you have to do some major investment there? We can build. So we can build. We can build. I'm going to use a rough number. We can build the handful of the initial units in Sacramento today, which is what we're doing.
If all the points come together and we go into production on this next year, I believe our current plan, because Elroy is in California, Sacramento is in California, we will build, we will go into production in California and I don't want to get into the investment dynamics because I'm under an NDA on who's going to pay for that, but we would do it in California. That's the plan right now. Okay. Thank you, Eric. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Andre Madrid with U.S. Bancorp BGVIG. Please go ahead. Eric, Deanna, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Hi. Hi. You mentioned just earlier that you don't need reconciliation to achieve your 2027 targets. So maybe how should we be thinking about potential upside if that does come through? And then, you know, kind of piggybacking off that, I think you also mentioned that before that even with a blue wave, reconciliation may still be in the cards. And I just wanted to see if you still hold that to be true. Yeah, so I'll answer the second question first and the first question second. Obviously, in the past 24, 48 hours, I've been on the phones doing a lot of videos with current leadership and future leadership in Congress, both the House and the Senate. My opinion, I'm not putting any words in anybody's mouth, my opinion is that if the Republicans can get There are members, both in the Senate and the House, back into Washington for a vote. They fully intend on trying to get a reconciliation bill done.
So the people that lost, the Republicans that lost, they need to get them back to Washington to do a formal vote, and the intent is for a reconciliation bill to pass. That is a focus right now, and that's what's happening. I don't know what's going to happen there. If they're patriots and they want to do what's right for the country, in my opinion, they should do it, but we'll see. The first question, so it was on the difference between the reconciliation and the appropriation. What specifically can I answer on that? If you don't need Reconciled to achieve your 27 targets now, how should we be thinking about potential upside if it does come through? Yeah, well, again, so that ties into the conservative posture we took in putting out our 27 forecast. I would not use the term substantially higher unless it was substantially higher. So if we do get another reconciliation bill and, and, and, and, we get a formal appropriation done by, let's say, the end of March, so we have a six-month CR, okay? I've got to see it. Obviously, I've got to see how the details fall.
I've got to see the details on the reconciliation bill, but my tummy tells me that if we get an appropriation by March 31st and we get a reconciliation bill, let's say north of $150-$200 billion additional to a $1.15 trillion 27 NDAA, that could be important upside for us throughout 2027. That's how I see it. Got it, got it. And then you mentioned hundreds of job listings. I've heard you say this before. What needs to be done to fill these seats, and do you expect this headwind really to abate at any point? I do not expect the headwind to abate. This is really hard because there is a generational rebuild, reindustrialization going on, and we're hiring them, Lockheed's hiring them, Northrop's hiring them, Andrel's hiring them, SpaceX is hiring them, and so it's very, very difficult. It's an additive difficulty is when these individuals need a security clearance. Because as you know, in many states now in the United States, smoking marijuana is legal. But federally, it's not. And I'm not passing judgment here. This is what it is. It's business.
And so a lot of very smart people that can be very smart technically and very smart engineers, they don't want to get a security clearance. and they have lots of opportunities commercially, which is straining them off. So this is why I purposely today said that we and what we're doing in our investments, we are building, and I don't talk a lot about this for competitive people. We're not big podcast people like some of these other companies. We are building robotic factories. I say our additive manufacturing and 3D printing capability in place, building stuff today, second to none. Second to none. I think one of our vendors that we just bought a monstrous 3D printing machine from put out a press release in the last two weeks. I think it's the biggest one they ever built. That wasn't our press release, it was theirs. So we are trying to adjust to there being less workers, More robotics, more automation, and training up the kids to be able to work on this stuff. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Sheila with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hi. Good afternoon, Eric, Deanna. Thank you so much for the time. Maybe on first question on margins, just thinking about Q3, great margin performance, 11.7% up 200 bps year over year, and your initial 2027 outlook implies about 100 basis points of expansion. You know, I guess, how do we think about the puts and takes of the improvement next year, given some programs are in development still and others are ramping in production? Yeah, the puts and takes are, as we Our priming larger system integration projects, those are typically cost-plus, and that's something the government dictates. And those are typically lower margin, just by definition, the way they're set up. So it is going to be dependent on the mix of our programs, but we have won a number of large prime system integration-type programs, which are cost-plus. We will have a ceiling, if you will, on staff margin expansion on that portion of our work, and we're about 30% cost plus now, and that's been growing from about 22%, 23% last year to about 30%.
So it's really just that delicate balance of the fixed price contracts and the time and material contracts where we're ramping into production to get leverage off of our fixed infrastructure costs, and then balancing that with the cost plus side where we're limited structurally from significant margin expansion there. And Sheila, important to note on the cost plus ones, the margins might be less, but because they're cost plus, it's less risky to us. And we won't have exactly a fixed price blow up like you see some other people have. And so that's been part of our calculus and our bid strategies. Okay, now that's helpful. And maybe another one on just the 27 guide, you know, you put out revenues, you put out EBITDA, but you said you're going to wait on cash flow. And then you have, you know, pretty big write up on forecasted internal funded investments in the press release. And I know you're investing in the defense supply chain.
Eric, so I guess, how do we think about, you know, your internal investments as we think about next year, whether it's, you know, R&D, off the balance sheet, or via cash flow? You have a lot going on in terms of investments, and I guess if you could just kind of summarize your key focus areas and how we should be thinking about that. Yep, yep. So the primary investment areas right now, based on the way I see it, is going to be in property, plant, equipment, and facilities. Right now we're building our anechoic chamber, anaconda, for the SPY-1 radars. This program can go through 2053. So that's part of our calculus on building this facility. Helios. This is a hypersonic facility arc chamber with a fiber laser in it. We already have a customer. So we're putting out the CapEx, we're building that facility, and then we're going to start doing stuff with hypersonic systems in that facility. I can go on, but that's how we're doing it, Sheila, is the customer, the department is coming to us. We're working with the department. They say, we have a need.
We will, if you make an investment and stand up the facility with the right capabilities, et cetera, we will give you a program to do this, this, and this for this number of years. That's how we do our rate of return analysis. Because we're funding it, we can move much faster than the government. So the department is very happy because we get that facility up in a year or a year and a half. So their color of money is different. So instead of using blue money or red money, they're using our money. They give us the program, and they reimburse us for it either through the rates or a direct charge to the contract. And every one of these, as I said in my remarks, We have an internal rate of return hurdle that they've got to achieve or we won't do it. That's how we look at it, and this is one of the reasons I'm so confident that we're going to turn when the production quantities cross the line on the investments, we're going to turn cash flow positive and we're going to sustain cash flow. Because we are not doing build it and hope they come. We're not doing that. They've already come. We're building it and we have that program or that customer or that partner lined up.
Okay, that's super helpful. Thank you. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Trevor Walsh with Citizens Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hi, it's Ethan Frost on for Trevor. Just going back to the robotics and manufacturing, just curious, like, the history there in terms of, like, where KREOS is today and then, like, whether the comments in the prepared remark are something more of, like, a Thank you for joining us. Let's go to where we're building big military-grade hardware. That is a process that we have to go through because the existing process and the existing machinery, doing it with traditional methods, is qualified and certified and signed off by the customer for the weapon system. And we are very cautious about changing something out, a machine or a system, where we have to get requalified. That's more of a long-term process, if you will. We've won a new drone program. I'm not going to talk about what it is yet, but that's a greenfield program. We're going to do that robotically in 3D manufacturing right out of the chute because it's greenfield. There are the three different ways we're looking at it and how it's coming along and evolving in Kratos. Great, thanks.
And then just a smaller piece, talked about smaller acquisitions. With the Jet Set Aeromotive Acquisition, is there anything beyond what was already said that sticks out to you or excites you about that? It's a small tuck-in. The guys were retiring. Our guys knew them forever. It's in engines and propulsion systems, the exact same engines and propulsion systems we do, bringing a new customer set. and probably most importantly, bringing an inventory of engines and parts and subsystems to engines that because of the way we structured the acquisition, we're getting it at a very favorable cost and we're getting it now. This is a one plus one equals three because the demand for these type of engines out there in the market is incredible and it's increasing and this is giving us the channel, the components of the engines and another trusted partner that's now part of Kratos to the industry that we're able to bring forth. So this is like perfect for Kratos because it's low risk, exactly what we do, exactly what we're already doing, and we know the guys. Great. Thank you. Yep.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Austin Moeller with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. So, do you expect more mock TB funds in the reconciliation bill if they pass it? I've heard that they might be trying to move it on December 11th. Right, yeah. You know, you see the right stuff, ma'am. Let me answer the question. Okay, I don't know. I don't know. But let me remind, I'm glad you brought this up because it triggered a brain cell. The mock TB FIDUP, the fiscal year defense plan for the five years, is $7.9, it's $8 billion. So that's in the base budget process, not the reconciliation bill. And so this ties into the previous question. Okay, so we have that FIDUP. We know it's in the 2027 appropriation. I hope it gets passed. We've built that into our guidance. If there is a reconciliation bill and there's additional funding from OCTB, that could be an upper force. Okay. And Kratos SRE participated in Gauntlet 1 of the Drone Dominance Program.
How do you view Kratos' scale and competitive positioning versus the other large U.S. drone manufacturers since DOW wants to procure one million drones? Is there anything you would need to do to scale from a CapEx perspective to meet those kind of volumes? Yeah. So as I believe I said a couple three-quarters ago when we won that face one of the drone dominance, okay. Drone dominance is not a strategic priority for Kratos. And I know the quantities. Boston, I get it, but it's not. There are, and I'm not saying this negatively, I'm just saying this factually, there are dozens and dozens of guys that are building Class 1 drones. And even if there's a million of them, if you make a dollar a drone, you've got a million dollars in profit. That is not a priority for us. If there's an opportunity and the government brings it to us and we've got some stuff lying around and we think we can satisfy it, very low investment