Q2 2026 Earnings Call — July 22, 2026
Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley): Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, one for Sundar, one for Anat. Sundar, with more time and Gen AI products and tools in the market and investment continuing to step up, can you just kind of give us some perspective on how your view on the size of the overall Gen AI ROIC opportunity and the timing of the ROIC has changed now versus one year ago? And then Anat, you talked quite a bit about supply capacity constraints. Even a similar question for you around forward capex. How is your budgeting philosophy and just constraints you're putting on to forward spend, how are those changing? You sort of think about the right amount to spend in 2027 to close this capacity constraint.
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Thanks, Brian. I mean, it's a good question. I do think, you know, it feels like we are in very early innings of what feels like a secular shift across multiple areas in our core information businesses, just the possibilities when I see what all you can do with the absolute. There's still a lot of work ahead to translate all that into experiences for our consumer users. You can think about end-to-end agentic experiences to really meaningfully do a lot more for them. So all of that looks like extraordinary opportunities with extraordinary returns for executing well on those opportunities. Similarly, on the enterprise side, as you can see from our demand, which is reflected in our growth rates, et cetera, again, in my conversations with many CEOs, many companies, they're all still barely scratching the early stages of what's possible here. So I think we used to talk about cloud itself, very small percentage of overall workloads and enterprises have shifted to cloud. Now think about what percentage of workloads are really AI-native and AI-enabled. It again feels like very, very early. So I would say from ROIC standpoint, I think we are taking a full-stack approach. We are seeing momentum across consumers and enterprises and developers and so on. So it feels like, if anything, over the past year, we've gotten more bullish on the opportunities ahead. I'll turn it over to Anat.
Anat Admati (CFO): Thanks for the question on how do we think about forward-looking CapEx in the context of supply constraints. So we're still in a supply constraint environment. I think we've said this now for multiple quarters in a row. And we are seeing very strong demand both from external cloud customers as well as across the business. And our goal is to invest as long as we see an attractive return on that investment as Sundar mentioned earlier. We do take a long-term view. So we take a multi-year view at what the needs are as well as focus on next year and the near term and building aggressively to meet those demands. And as you've seen, we have increased our capacity quite significantly over the past three years. The demand still outpaces that investment. And we are, just like the rest of the industry, working in a supply-constrained environment, so we're working hard to do this. We do have a benefit of having the full-stack approach, so we're able to drive operational efficiencies, technological efficiencies within our technical infrastructure organization so that we can deliver more compute. But as long as we see these attractive opportunities to invest, we will continue to invest.
Doug Anmuth (J.P. Morgan): Thanks for taking the questions, one for Sundar and one for Anat. Sundar, can you just talk about your confidence level that the Gemini models can remain at the frontier? I know you had the Gemini, the Flash model releases this week, but Google perhaps doesn't make maybe quite as much noise as some of the other leading labs or perhaps have quite the frequency of. Just curious how you'd address any concerns about that ability to continue developing leading models. And then just related, can you talk about your plans for coding and how you look to close the gap in that part of enterprise? And then Anat, just following the recent equity and debt raises, can you just help us understand how you think about optimal capital structure and how you view the cost of debt versus equity?
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Thanks, Doug. Look, I think, you know, the frontier is an incredibly dynamic space, you know, and it's fiercely moving forward at any given moment when you take a snapshot, it feels dynamic. We have had clearly frontier models. There are many attributes on which we are still at the frontier. There are areas where we've acknowledged we need to improve. Coding and agent decoding is an example of that. And I think the teams are very, very focused on it. With 3.6 Flash, and by the way, Flash is our and many more. And we see tremendous demand for it, given it generally hits a sweet spot of performance, cost, reliability, latency, et cetera. And we've incorporated Gemini and Flash particularly in our entire portfolio of solutions, be it in cybersecurity, data analytics. If you think about an area like customer service, you need really good voice quality, you need live streaming, you need the ability to reason on that. Or if you're a professional services firm, you need high quality summarization, content generation, et cetera. So Flash does very well on all of that.
In terms of agent decoding, we are iterating and you will see us make continued iterations. 3.6 Flash, for example, compared to 3.5 Flash jumped over 10 points in DeepSuite as a benchmark and it is more token efficient doing so. So we are clearly, we are using it internally, we are testing it with many customers in coding. So we see the progress just in six weeks from the prior version to the new version and you will see more continued iterations on that as well. In terms of the frontier, we are both very committed and very confident of being at the frontier. For the next generation of frontier, you're going to need much larger base models. We are now training Gemini 4 and we're being very ambitious with it. I am very excited by the progress I'm seeing internally on Gemini 4, and I'm confident people will be pleased when we are putting it outside. But we will need Gemini 4 as a larger base model to compete at that frontier level, and so we are focused on executing on that well.
Anat Admati (CFO): And on the question regarding our capital structure and recent equity and debt raise. So as we think about our investment needs, and as I said, we look at the next year and multiple years out, we first look at how much we can support based on cash from operations. And as you've seen in our results today, we continue to generate very healthy, strong cash flow from operations. So that's our first source of funding. And then we look at debt and most recently we did the equity raise. And we have expanded our debt portfolio quite significantly over the past 12 months. If you've seen a year ago, we were at about 16 billion and we went to about a hundred billion dollars across multiple currencies and geographies. So we're expanding that portfolio. But we also want to make sure we have a resilient, not just growth outlook, but also resilient balance sheet and a strong balance sheet, healthy balance sheet, which is the rationale behind expanding into the equity markets. At this point, we're not planning to go back to the equity markets with the exception of, as you recall, part of our equity offering was the ATM or at the market offering that we will do to address the stock-based company or the tax on SBC, which we'll do for some period of time. But we look at those three dimensions, the cash flow from operations, debt levels and equity in a way to balance it in a way that ensures that we continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet.
Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs): Thanks so much for taking the questions, maybe two if I could, both on TPUs. Sundar, can you talk about some of your key learnings as you scale your TPU efforts in terms of both the demand for TPUs and how you think about balancing the external demands for TPUs versus the internal demand for custom silicon inside the organization as you look over the next couple years? And then, Anat, if I could just follow up. You made some comments in your prepared remarks about the impact of TPUs on Google Cloud. I didn't know if you could give us a little bit more granularity about the size of TPUs as a part of the revenue backlog and how to think about the revenue recognition of the potential for margin impact from TPUs in the years ahead.
Sundar Pichai (CEO): I think in terms of, first of all, we are very pleased with our TPU roadmap progress and the value in terms of performance and the edge it gives. And we obviously use it extensively. In terms of allocating TPUs, look, our first priority is making sure we are allocating what we need to compete at the frontier in terms of AGI development. And so that is the foundation for everything we do. But given the extraordinary demand, to balance the external demand, even for most cloud customers, we are using both TPUs and GPUs, mainly for serving our models. So ThinkVortex AI, Gemini Enterprise, the momentum we see, so we're using it for those purposes. To the extent people want it as infrastructure, we are balancing it by increasingly looking at opportunities to put TPUs in their data centers or in other data centers like the project we are doing with Blackstone, et cetera. So we are using that as an ability to balance and make sure we are allocating as much of the available compute for frontier model development as well as serving both our consumer business and our enterprise business in terms of first-party models.
Anat Admati (CFO): And in terms of revenue recognition and how we look at the TPU system sales, so the way to think about it is the following. When we sign the agreements that I've mentioned in the prepared remarks, they would be then reflected in the cloud backlog. Now, the vast majority of the $514 billion of cloud backlog is the GCP agreements, but the TPU system sales are reflected in that backlog. We started building inventory to be able to sell those systems. So you see that impact on the cash from operations because we built ahead, obviously as we're building that business and ramping up. And then once we start delivering the sales, generally that's when we start recognizing revenue. This quarter was a small amount of that total agreement. We'll continue to ramp up throughout 2026, but then you'll see the vast majority of the revenue from that agreement come through in 2027.
Ross Sandler (Barclays): Yeah, just back to the AI model kind of war that's going on, Sundar. Just wanted to ask about the speed of model releases and how you can potentially speed up the cadence by which Gemini is releasing models. So we all saw the third-party compute deal with SpaceX. What else are we doing to kind of speed up the pace of model releases compared to some of the other folks out there? And then you just mentioned the Flash models, which have been very successful, to your point. Do you view that as like the right end of the market to be in given how crowded the lower cost end of the model space has become? Just any thoughts on how you see all that playing out?
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Look, I mean, two things I'll say. First of all, we are, you know, we really think about the parade of frontier. You know, we want to make sure for our customers we are offering best models at various price points. So you will see us. But it's very important to us to have the best Frontier models out there, as well as models which are very performant and low cost. This is why we have Flashlight, Flash, Pro, et cetera. So we are committed to being at the full parade of Frontier. On the speed of model releases, I do think you will see us continue to pick up pace. Obviously, you've seen us come with, we announced 3.5 flash at IO, we have followed that up at 3.6 flash, and you'll see continued iterations of that model with further progress in agent decoding, etc. We are really focused, putting a lot of effort into Gemini 4. It's a very ambitious effort. We wanted to compete at the frontier level of where the frontier will be when Gemini 4 comes out. And so we are applying a lot of our compute and effort in that direction. But with that, we are creating a baseline on top of which you will see us rapidly iterate at subsequent model releases. And so picking up pace and releasing models almost at a monthly cadence is part of our roadmap as we are building Gemini 4 as well.
Michael Nathanson (Moffett Nathanson): Thanks. Thank you. Senator, just keep with the model theme of this call. Can you talk a bit about what do you think the moats are to this new model war? What is your strategic advantages that fuel your business that even if everyone gets to the same type of model capabilities, what gives you the edge to keep growing like you're doing? Anat, back to Eric's question, anything you can tell about the margin impact on TPUs going forward, right? Is it incremental margin to the core cloud margin or is it a lower margin coming through?
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Look, Michael, I mean, first of all, look, there are many, many layers at which we are providing solutions, right? I think part of what the value of our full stack approach is customers are coming to us for solutions. So if you take an area like cybersecurity or data analytics, people are deploying. People are bringing what's been in the past siloed data sources, putting it all together and having an intelligence layer on top of it with Gemini Enterprise. And so the model is just an ingredient in those solutions. So I think it's important to remember that. Then even within where you're purely on a more model consumption area, people are... you know there is what looks as models are increasingly becoming end-to-end orchestrated systems right workflows agentic workflows and to develop all this it's your ability not just to bring the compute you need to train and serve the data quality the environments you have your ability to continually improve provide customers with that peace of mind that all the data they have, their data, their trajectories are confidential to them. None of that in any way flows back to the models.
Their ability to configure and serve all this in a secure way and manage it and provision it and so on. These are big end-to-end things. This is what our Cloud business as a whole is focused on building it. We are seeing demand across all of these components. And so obviously having our own models allows us to really optimize these solutions and bring an integrated offering but we will also provide other models as part of these solutions. We also bring infrastructure as part of these solutions, et cetera and take a whole full stack approach. So I think we are very, very well positioned there.
Anat Admati (CFO): And on the TPU margins, we don't break out margins for any specific products or infrastructure component. And certainly there are benefits from designing and manufacturing our own chips. But the way to think about it is this is an expansion of our total addressable market. So it expands the opportunities by providing solutions to customers that need those systems in their data centers. But overall, if you think about the cloud margins, obviously a really fantastic expansion of margin to 35.6%. This quarter, outstanding, strong operational discipline across the business and leveraging growth in the top line. And as you think about Q3 and through the remainder of the year, and I've mentioned some of the prepared remarks, given the supply constraint environment we're in, we are planning to expand the use of third-party capacity in Q3 as a bridging strategy while we continue to build out internal capacity. That capacity, given the cost of that capacity, will put some pressure on operating margins for cloud. And then the last item we mentioned in the past was the integration of Wiz does create some headwind here in the near term in 2026 related to the acquisition.
Mark Shmulek (Bernstein): Yes, thanks for taking the questions. Anat, just on these third-party deals and kind of the bridge in capacity, is there a particular objective where the constraints are most severe or is it really broad-based? And I guess, you know, stepping back a bit and thinking about capacity allocation across the businesses, has that changed at all or is there a way to contextualize how you're now thinking about the trade-off between allocating compute to search versus model training versus for the GCP business?
Anat Admati (CFO): Mark, I can comment on it. Like, you know, look again on allocation. I think, look, the baseline with which we start is what it takes to, you know, continue AGI development at the frontier. Obviously, you know, the priors on that are just based on where the model frontier moves. And so we start with that as a baseline. And beyond that, we want to obviously be prioritizing our core product areas like search, YouTube, et cetera, as well as cloud. And within cloud, we are prioritizing the compute to make sure we can serve our models in the context of Vertex and Gemini Enterprise and our core solutions, be it data analytics and cybersecurity, et cetera, right? So our core serving for our core products across consumers and enterprises where the compute is primarily going, and that's how we think about it. I think on the bridge deal, the main thing I would say is, look, there are on the margin, there are very, very large customers of ours on cloud who we are trying to support them through this extraordinary moment and the incremental opportunities they are bringing to us while a short-term cost over a few months may be very high in the lifetime of the deal as we bring more capacity on is highly ROI positive, right? So those are factors we are taking into account.
Ron Jose (Citi): Great, thanks for taking the question. Maybe I'll switch topics somewhat and fill up, ask you a little bit more about monetization from a search and YouTube perspective. Just given the greater signal we have with AI searches and then you talked about YouTube strength, talk to us a little bit more on how advertisers are leveraging the greater personalization and targeting that Google has to drive this ROAS. And, you know, a question we often get is Google is at size and scale. We're still growing 17%. Any reasons what's driving that all-time high on searches?
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Yes, thank you so much for the question. Look, our 17% year-over-year growth rate in the Q2 search and other revenues was really driven by many parts of our business working well together and very, very deep Gemini integration. Maybe to zoom out for a second, all the major verticals contributed to the growth. Retail drove the greatest contribution I managed, as followed by really meaningful contributions from finance, tech, Media Entertainment, and so on. I think it's really important to understand that Gemini supercharges our ability, and this goes specifically to your question, to understand what people are looking for and match the right ads. So we're applying Gemini models really across our entire ads infrastructure, whether it's ads quality, advertising tools, ads and new AI experiences, and we're really deeply integrating Gemini into the customer tools to make the campaigns more efficient, which comes on top of this. And then we have our AI powered campaigns like AI Max that help advertisers actually adapt and find the opportunities beyond keyword. Again, that's an ability for us to go deeper and target better.
And AI Max continues to unlock, we mentioned this, billions of net new searches that weren't really monetizable before. And then on the YouTube side, high level, the ads growth was driven by direct response and brand advertising. I shared earlier, we continue to see a lot fermenting in the living room. We have a really exciting ads roadmap as well ahead of us on the brand side, on the direct response side. Demand and insurance remain really interesting opportunities here. Again, this has targeting components to it, obviously. And we continue to innovate really heavily in direct response with shoppable ad formats in the living room, which will help us drive strength in retail as well.
Ken Gorolsky (Wells Fargo): Thank you very much. Two questions, please. First, how would you assess the forecasted returns on compute capacity investments in 27 compared to prior years, 25 and 26, in light of the supply chain constraints and Supply Chain Inflation we're seeing? I'm curious as to how you think about the return profile of 27 and kind of future investments versus past investments in capacity. And the second one, a little different topic here. When you think about Waymo, what are the key factors you would consider when evaluating a change in corporate structure for Waymo? I know you've previously been reticent to talk about this, but the business is scaling. Clearly, there's leadership there and has a lot of momentum. Under what conditions would it make sense for Waymo to live outside of Alphabet?
Anat Admati (CFO): On your first question, if I understand it, we are working off a disciplined ROIC framework here. Obviously, to the extent that our input costs going up to us, we reflect that in our ability to price our solutions and see returns there. So all of that is factored into I think our compute capacity investments in 27, I think to the first question I answered, I think we are seeing strong demand indicators, including long-term deals, the existing deals which we have, which are renewing with exceptional demand on a moving forward basis. And so we are using all that to plan and invest accordingly. And so I think if anything, the dynamics look healthier than where we were about a year ago. And so that's what gives us the confidence to undertake those investments.
Sundar Pichai (CEO): On Waymo, look, I think we are really focused on executing and scaling up Waymo. We have set it up with our bed structure and given the team a lot of support. Alphabet has continued I think our ability to think and plan long-term and invest in the business and give them that long-term roadmap, the confidence in undertaking a long-term roadmap and scaling up, I think is all hugely valuable. We're really focused on scaling the business right now and executing to that extraordinary potential and that's what we're focused on.
Sridhar Kajuria (Wolf Research): Okay, thanks a lot for taking my questions. Could I please ask you two? One is on TPU long-term strategy. Longer term, is it fair to think that as TPU sales scale, you'd build a merchant silicon business with a software stack that goes with it? And second is on YouTube revenue. Given how strong engagement is, what are some of the factors that could drive accelerating growth rate at YouTube on a go-forward basis?
Sundar Pichai (CEO): You know, maybe I'll answer the first one and Philip can broadly talk about YouTube revenue growth as well. On the first one, on TPUs, look, I think we've been operating with TPUs for a while. A lot of our cloud serving is done on TPUs. And we are also seeing strong demand for TPUs as standalone systems from other customers. And so obviously the industry has constraints too. So we have to plan and we allocate on a forward-looking basis along the principles I spoke about earlier. So I don't want to project out too far into the future there, but I do think we are, you know, obviously we will scale up based on the opportunities we see and the demand we see, commensurate with the constraints that exist and the allocation needs we have for frontier model development, making sure we can serve our consumer businesses and enterprise businesses well.
Philip (YouTube): Yes, thank you so much. So look, I mentioned it, the drivers of YouTube ads revenue growth. I think there's a lot of things we're actually excited about when we look at our ads roadmap here. In brand, we see ongoing opportunities on connected TVs in the living room. We're building tools to help advertisers find creators, scale across screens and then measure the results. We have a slate of new and returning creator shows that are coming exclusively to YouTube. We see opportunities in direct response, particularly with demand gen. Demand gen and shorts, I mentioned it, remain a really interesting opportunity here to expand our base to more small and medium advertisers across more verticals, shorter videos. Actually, this important one, create more opportunities for less disruptive ads, increasing the overall ad effectiveness. So we're going to continue to see a lot of innovation, in my opinion, and direct response with shoppable ad formats in the living room, which, again, we mentioned that drives retail strength. We announced a few other formats here at Brandcast. We announced Buy with Google Pay to enable CTV viewers to actually complete purchases directly on their TV with two clicks, which is a really interesting opportunity. Over time, we launched the affiliate partnership boost to drive incremental sales and the creator earnings, obviously, from YouTube shopping affiliate commissions. So of all, frankly, very, very exciting times.
Sundar Pichai (CEO): Thanks, Sundar. Thanks a lot.
Jim Friedland (Moderator): Thank you. And that concludes our question and answer session for today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Jim Friedland for any further remarks. Thanks everyone for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter 2026 call. Thank you and have a good evening. Thank you everyone. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.