Q1 2026 Earnings Call — April 23, 2026
Carlos de Alba (Morgan Stanley): Yeah, thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. So maybe I wanted to explore a little bit on the level of confidence that you have on the new guidance for Grantsburg. Well, obviously a surprise on the latest revisions, but as you see, as you move forward, are there any specific points or areas where you think that there might be a higher risk or further potential reductions to production or ramp up that maybe we should be aware of that might realize or not, but if you could maybe Kathleen highlight for us what those would be, that would be great. Thank you.
Kathleen (Executive): Thank you, Carlos. The main thing that we are doing to resolve the issue is to install these regulators into the chute galleries. Right now, we have the capacity to mine the material, but we're limited because of the need to have a certain type of consistency to go through the chutes. And so when we think about what the risks to the ramp up are at this point, it is really a construction schedule and a delivery schedule from our vendor who we're already working with. We've got some of the equipment is already on site. It'll be installed on a phased basis. And we have over the coming months additional equipment that will be coming to us so that we can install these, we call them spilminators, onto the chutes. So really it's a situation where the bottlenecks will be addressed by the installation of this equipment. We have equipment on site now. We've got equipment on order. And it's a matter of meeting that execution timetable. I want to go back to this team and what this team accomplishes in terms of the ability to construct things at Glassburg. This is not a lot different than a lot of the things that the team has done in the past.
The work that they did to prepare for restart was a really busy schedule, a lot of moving pieces, and the team did an excellent job with the support from our centralized team to execute the plan, and we'll approach this in the very same way. It's got one of the highest Net present values in the business right now to get this up and running. And our team is all over it. We have confidence in the ability to meet the plan. Now, the risks are that there could be delays in getting the materials. There could be construction delays. But that has been, we've managed that through this plan that we put forward. And we'll stay on top of it until it's done. Mark Johnson is on the call as well. And Mark, if you want to add any color to what we're doing there, please go ahead.
Mark (Executive): Yeah, Kathleen, we've had one of these filminators. It was a prototype about a year ago that we called version one. What we're installing now is a re-engineered version of that, version 1.5. We've got the first one installed last week, you know, independent of some of this recent realization on the shift in material types. So we're testing that starting this weekend. As you mentioned, we've got a number more at site. Our fabrication is taking place in Indonesia. And the group that's doing it has been very responsive to our needs. We're looking at wrapping up the capacity of that plant in Indonesia. And then also the team is looking at other ways to shorten the construction cycle on the chutes. So what we've taken and what we put into the plan is what we know we can do from the past. And then, like you mentioned, we'll continue to look for things to do that we could optimize and improve, make that installation just that much more simple and quick. Thank you. Carlos, one other thing, and Mark can add to this, but we want to reiterate that we're in the very early stages of the ramp-up.
And so the sampling that we did of all of the draw points is, as of the present time, we have a process where we sample and inspect the draw points on a regular basis. As we continue to mine, it could be that some of this bottleneck gets resolved and our traditional blending systems can accommodate the material. We have not counted on that in this forecast. We've counted on using this more robustly of regulating the flow in the chutes. But we could have a situation where the material becomes drier as material is mined. And Mark, you can add to that if you'd like.
Mark (Executive): Yeah, it was kind of the unfortunate timing of ramping up just as we were doing the forecast process. Really, at the beginning of March, I think our forecasts based on the knowledge at that time would have been very similar to the previous estimates. So what we've done, as Kathleen's mentioned, as we started mucking, we had a higher incident of spills occurring. Some of the material that we began mucking shifted to a wetter material. So what we've done is implemented what we know today and used that as our basis. What we do know is as we muck, the porosity of the material above will improve. And that's the sort of upside we might have is that as we get a broader footprint, as we begin mining, more draw points, more panels, that some of these could convert back to where they were. You know, it's a process where we, as we're mucking, we do a very frequent assessment. So it's a very dynamic process. We already mine each panel, as Kathleen mentioned, remotely. It only takes one draw point within a panel to be wet that we do the remote mining. So we were set up to do that from the onset. And now it's just a matter of that ratio within each panel.
There's also implications from panels adjacent to a wet panel. The team's also been very innovative on being able to remotely manage other aspects within the panel like rock breakage and hung up panels. So it's more than just the remote mucking. There's a number of other initiatives that we're pursuing that'll increase the availability of the draw points. Thank you.
Carlos de Alba (Morgan Stanley): A very, very quick follow up. Can the regulators handle a drier material if the ratio improves over time?
Mark (Executive): Yes, yes. It's really about being able to shut off the flow if it gets very sloppy. And it's a very innovative design where the gate and the hydraulic rams actually, as the material starts to flow, it assists in us being able to shut off the flow if we need to. So it's a matter of preventing spills from happening on our haulage level onto the trains. But it'll also handle the dry material. It's a very flexible robot system, and as we mentioned, we had planned over the long term to install it, and now we're accelerating that to make the system more flexible and robust to handle any type of material. Thank you.
Alex Hacking (Citi): Yeah, morning Kathleen and team. Not to Monday morning quarterback, but, you know, you've got a very experienced team there at Grasberg. You know, how is this issue missed in the initial assessment? You know, that water would start to build up as mining was halted. And then maybe in layman's terms, like why not add more drainage to the mine? Thanks.
Mark (Executive): In terms of the first part of that, Alex, you know, we have monitoring of the water coming in and out of the cave, and so there was nothing that was detected of any significance or any significant concern. It's just a matter of getting access to each of these draw points and to be able to inspect them, and we couldn't do that until we got access in this March timeframe. It doesn't take a lot for something to move from dry to wet, and it's just a small amount of moisture. So this isn't like a lot of water or some big overwhelming situation. It's just the nature of what's wet or moist versus what's completely dry. But we do have a number of initiatives, and that's what I wanted Mark to cover, a number of initiatives that we started after the incident last September to address a more robust drainage system. But the one we have now within the block cave in terms of the gravity drainage is very good. The one that we are pursuing is additional drainage from the surface. But Mark, why don't we cover through that? And we've got some information and the supplemental thoughts on it as well.
Mark (Executive): Right, yeah. The slide that you're referring to is 41. But Alex, what we have right now and what we've had in place for years is that we have a very comprehensive drainage plan from the surface in the open pit where the pit has not been impacted. You're aware that as we blockade that there's a subsidence zone where the rock breaks and where we have the wet muck coming from is the rainfall that falls onto that broken material. Our drainage system both for groundwater and for the surface area that's been unimpacted is very robust, it's been in place, functioning. But what the wet muck generation comes from, the daily rainfall, it falls onto that rock. It works its way down through the cave. And as it gets to a draw point, that draw point turns into somewhat of a funnel where it concentrates some of that flow that's within that broken rock. And as Kathleen mentioned, it's only a couple percent difference in moisture content that can convert material from a dry material that we can handle easily to a wetter material that we need to manage much more significantly.
So it's not a matter really of drainage, but what we are doing as a result of the external mud rush, the other incident obviously that's put us into the situation and the PB1 area is that we're looking to be able to drain the water away that collects within the cave, essentially in that shape of the old pit. And so we're drilling into some of that broken rock above PB1. We're seeing some initial indications, even with the smaller diameter drill holes, that we've been able to access some of that water. That's encouraging. We're getting some other drills that'll drill those sort of holes much quicker in a bigger diameter. Those are on schedule. They're coming in, should be drilling by the end of June. And then we've got some other initiatives that are more focused on the PB1 reopening of taking away that surface water that ponds or pools and any mud-like material, any liquefiable material that might gather in the pit bottom. Thanks for the call. And I do appreciate all the hard work that the team is doing.
Alex Hacking (Citi): Thank you.
Chris LaFemina (Jefferies): Hi, thanks, operator. Hi, Kathleen and team. Just a couple of follow-up questions on Grassberg and kind of following up on what Alex just asked. So if we look at the portion of wet draw points before the mud rush incident, I think you say it was 30%, and it's 45% now. So my first question is, what sort of variability is there around that number? In other words... Was it 30%, but sometimes 35, sometimes 25? What level of competence do you have in the ratio of dry to wet today? And that's the first question. The second question is, when did you identify that there were too many wet draw points? I think there was a media report a couple of weeks ago that indicated that Freeport was actually ahead of schedule on the Black Cave ramp, and maybe that was just an incorrect media report, but I'm wondering if this is something that you just learned very recently and was not an obvious problem just a few weeks ago. Thank you.
Kathleen (Executive): Chris, on the diagram we show on slide nine, the number of draw points dry to wet comparison, the important thing to look at here is also the panel. So in September, we had only one panel within PB2 and 3 that didn't meet the ratio. And so we were dealing with that with lending. And so that was the only one that we were addressing. Now, you've got 10 out of the 23 that don't meet the one-to-ones. So what it ends up doing is derating the production of the whole panel because you can only produce at the level of the one-to-one until we get these enhanced material handling systems installed. So that's an important factor, what's going on within each panel. In terms of the variability, Mark can comment further on this, but we wouldn't have had significant variability in the past, but we do have ongoing monitoring that looks to see for our processes to monitor these draw points for planning and management systems. But since we started mining, you know, we have had some draw points that were wet initially in March go to dry and vice versa. So it is a little bit of a dynamic situation right now in the very early days of the ramp up.
As Mark talked about earlier, you know, the timing of all this is we had just really commenced the ramp-up, and so there was, you know, new information that we were getting along the way in April as we were going through the forecasting process. Freeport, you know, we did not modify any of our guidance. You know, the actual progress we were making on the ramp up in terms of, or the progress we were making on the restart was very good. As I mentioned, we got that done ahead of schedule. Some of the media reports that you may be referencing relate to some of the discussions in Indonesia where there could be government people that are asking questions about the plan or media asking about the plan. And those would have been based on our original plan because we had not formalized our forecast until recently. Again, the recovery and the preparedness to get to the ramp up was going very, very well. And it's only this new information that has been unfolding in recent weeks where we had to address the forecast. Again, it's very early days, and things can move from here, but we do have a solution.
We're going to execute against that solution, and it's a positive long-term solution to giving us flexibility to deal with these sorts of things as we go forward over the long term.
Mark (Executive): That's very helpful. I might just add, since the start of the Grasberg, we've also had a model that predicts the future of that wet to dry ratio. And all the way through the life of PV2 and 3, that ratio is generally 2 to 1. Like that we'd have two draw points of dry to one wet. There'd be some panels that are that very, you know, the variability is more across the footprint, but broadly we had a much better ratio that we've been forecasting and using that as part of our mine plans. That's a big part of the reason that we built GBC to be able to be remotely mined from the onset. So we've been working on this for quite some time. You know, it's a bit of a complex model. It's both material characteristics from size and then managing how the water makes its way through the broken rock mass. So our indications were that we're much different over the longer term. It didn't indicate the need for the stimulators at this point of the mine. As Kathleen mentioned, we were working on that and saw certain panels that would require that. But what we've looked at now is a much more taking what we have today and just applying that, making sure that the chutes themselves are not the bottleneck. So the current plan is that we'll replace all the chutes so that we'll have that additional flexibility.
Chris LaFemina (Jefferies): Got it. Thank you very much.
Nick Cash (Goldman Sachs): Hi team, thank you very much. Just wanted to switch gears a little bit here. You mentioned deploying the first initially developed additive and working on a second additive in North America. How established are the supply chains for each of these and how quickly can you scale those additives? And how much of the 800 million guide incremental for leaching is a result from these new additives? And then lastly, given the increased diesel costs and global supply chain pressures, are there any risks to the $2.50 cent unit cost targets for North America in 27? Thank you.
Kathleen (Executive): Thank you, Nick. In terms of the additive, the one that we're deploying now, and we started with one stockpile at Marinci and are now deploying it more broadly across the stockpiles at Marinci, is readily available. And that is, we've got a supply chain for it, and it's being applied, and the results will continue to evolve as we go through the year, and that's the data that we want to see. In the lab, the additive that we're referring to, we've got two additional additives that we're focused on, and maybe more after that, but we call them our next generation additives. We've seen with these additional additives performance in the lab that is a multiplier effect of benefit above the one we're using now. So we have been working with potential suppliers on those. It's not as easy to find and we may have to, you know, have it made as the ones that we're using now. But we've been conducting some meetings in recent months with anticipation that we will commercialize one or more of those additives. And that's really showing potential.
And to answer your question about the scaling, it's the combination of additives and heat that is going to get us to the 800 million pounds. So we can, you know, at the current levels, all of the initiatives we're doing on precision leaching, all those things, all the things we're doing in Leach Everywhere, we've got helicopters that are adding irrigation lines to places that we couldn't access before. All those things are sort of operational work that we're doing and that'll allow us to be in this 250, 300 million pound range. The rest of it really comes from the additives and heat. And it's not just one by itself because the combination of using an additive on side of heat could give you a one plus one equals two and a half or three. And so that's why this heat work is very important as well to get to our ramp-up rates. We've just started at Morenci. We've got a pilot where we're heating the raffinate that will go. We just really just literally just started this to heat the raffinate to try to raise temperatures within the stockpile. We're doing that on a test basis. We have our idea to put in some modular units of heat that could be applied to all of our stockpiles.
Initially, we're using natural gas to heat, but we're very excited about potential to have geothermal heat at Morenci and we've got promise there. We're actually doing some drilling to define a geothermal resource that would be a low cost way to heat the stockpiles. We know that heat works. Raising the temperature of the stockpile will add volumes of significance. That combined with the additives, we have a path to getting to 800. We've got to solve what's the right additive for different material types, and we've got to solve the engineering of how to best get the temperatures raised in the stockpile. Corey Stevens is on. He and his team are leading this effort, and I'll ask Corey to make any, and then I'll come back to your 250 question, Nick, but Corey, if you want to add any color to what I just said, that'd be helpful.
Corey (Executive): Yeah, thanks, Kathleen. Yep, so yeah, Kathleen said it. We've got a pilot going. We're using that to calibrate our heat models and what we would expect to see at Marinci. And in parallel, we've got a bigger project going where we're going to be tripling the size of that for our elaborate operation that's going to add some volumes there. And additionally, we have a number of other targets where we're looking at a modularized version that can be deployed more readily across the portfolio, particularly in North America. We're pretty excited about where we're headed on that front. Additionally, there's options with chemical heat using pyrite and air. Here in the second quarter, we're going to be starting what we call our perfect pile in New Mexico. And that will have a next generation design on being able to leverage heat from the natural pyrite that comes with the process there.
Kathleen (Executive): Nick, on the 250 question, with the changes in consumable costs and energy costs, we're reviewing what all that means. And it's been a volatile situation. In terms of where we were on that, if you looked at the energy costs, acid costs, all the various consumables in place in recent quarters, together with the addition of these low-cost incremental pounds of getting to our 400 target sometime next year, that would bring us... So we had a path to get to 250. We now need to look at what the right environment is for things that we don't control, like the cost of diesel or other inputs. And so that will cause us to re-look at the 250, but the point is that with the input costs that we've had in place over the last several quarters and the addition of these very low cost incremental pounds, we see being able to get our U.S. costs down significantly closer to where we are in South America. So that is still intact. We just need to continue to monitor what impact these commodity input costs will have on our cost structure.
But the things that we can control, we're working very hard to and have confidence that our unit costs will trend lower, all other things being equal. The sulfuric acid situation, well, as Marie said, we don't have a lot of spot exposure this year. We'll have to see how that unfolds as we get into next year. And while we're hedged, naturally, because we have the smelters, the cost of the acids that we buy will be shown in the operating costs for the U.S., and we'll have an offset elsewhere with the smelters that we have where we actually produce and sell acid. So I hope that helps you, give you some color around that.
Nick Cash (Goldman Sachs): That does. Thank you very much. I'll pass it off.
Bob Brackett (Bernstein Research): Good morning. And staying on the leaching theme, you all have been on a tear in terms of getting patents. I think you've had more patents in the last three years, a couple dozen than you've had in the previous 10, many related to leaching. What's the philosophy of those patents? Are they sort of defensive to make sure you can execute on your inventory, on your resource? Or could they be potentially offensive where you could be partner and get access to additional resources with your technology.
Kathleen (Executive): I'll let Corey add to this, but it's really both. Our focus, we've got 40 billion pounds plus of copper in these stockpiles, which have been treated as waste in the past. And so there is a huge value opportunity for us. And that's our immediate priority to recover some of that copper that's sitting there in stockpiles, which needs a catalyst to produce it. So that is our first priority. The second is, yes, we could leverage any technologies that we develop to potentially partner with others, potentially having synergies in an M&A transaction, et cetera. But our first priority is to maximize the value of our own work here. The team we have working on this, we have a technology center in Tucson, and the team we have working on it is really, really strong. We've added to the team recently, added some chemists and some other disciplines to the team. So we have a multidiscipline team working not only on what's the best additive, but also what's the best way to commercialize it. Our corporate development team has been actively involved in that as well. So it's, like I said, it's a very high net present value project and would transform our U.S. business in something that we're making a lot of advances to, and we're going to crack the code as we go forward.
Corey (Executive): Yeah, Kathleen, you nailed it. Really, we're moving forward with this powerful group of innovators and filling the pipeline. The 42 billion pounds that are within our existing stockpiles don't count the other options that we have within our company for below cutoff grade material that we're currently considering waste today that could be extremely valuable for us in the future as these options materialize. It's a very competitive market, and so, you know, we're being very careful to protect our interests as we come up with these innovations.
Lawson Linder (Bank of America Securities): Thank you very much, Operator, and hello, Kathleen and Richard. Thank you for taking my question and for today's presentation. If I could, I'd like to follow up on the theme of industry cost pressures and just get a sense for what you've provided on the slides. And maybe this is best addressed by you, Murray, just in terms of the sensitivity of diesel. So it's interesting. So versus the Q4 slides, it looks like diesel sensitivity has actually increased. Can you maybe just walk through why that would happen or why there would be a larger impact on EBITDA now than there was three months ago?
Murray (Executive): The slide that Marie reviewed has our sensitivities to copper and all of our input costs, et cetera. And so what we do to calculate the sensitivities is use what's in that forecast for diesel price assumptions and then measure a plus or minus 10% change to that. So we have now incorporated a higher cost of diesel in our assumptions than what we had previously, and that's why a 10% change is more than what it was before.
Lawson Linder (Bank of America Securities): Is that the question you were asking?
Murray (Executive): Yeah, yeah. No, that's exactly right. It just seemed like it was a bit nonlinear. So that's it. I guess you're just assuming much higher diesel is a base case at this point.
Murray (Executive): Right. Yes. And we'll have to monitor that. We'll have to monitor it as we go. But in our forecasting process, we typically use the prices in effect around the, you know, it's been volatile, but the prices in effect at the time of the forecast. So those 27, 28 have higher diesel costs than we would have had three months ago.
Lawson Linder (Bank of America Securities): Okay, that makes perfect sense. And then just thinking about industry cost pressures, I mean, there's, you know, we've heard of explosive costs being higher, grinding media. You mentioned some insulation from sulfuric acid. When you think of some of the other key cost items for your business, are there other places where you feel there's some level of insulation? And then, you know, where are some of the other items where there might not be and there could be more exposure there?
Kathleen (Executive): It's been very regional, Lawson. As Marie mentioned, we've had a significant rise in diesel costs, but the most significant impact has been in Indonesia and other Asian regions have experienced that inflation more significantly. We haven't seen a lot of things in terms of what we buy being adjusted at this point, but that'll be something that lags and we'll have to see how long the situation continues and whether it'll start to flow through other components of our costs. But some of the things that trade on the spot market you can see have reacted, but a lot of our consumables are contractually negotiated. So we'll have to just continue to monitor those.
Lawson Linder (Bank of America Securities): Okay. Thank you, guys.
Unknown (BMO Capital Markets): Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Recently we saw there was a change to Section 232, tariffs impacting derivative products. Do you see any impact from that or do you expect any impact from that?
Kathleen (Executive): Not associated with what we sell. So that changed a lot of the codes for what gets tariffed. It did not change anything with respect to the refined copper cathodes at this point. And as you know, that is something that the government said they were going to be reviewing potentially by middle of this year.
Unknown (BMO Capital Markets): And then maybe just quickly, I know we mentioned the sulfuric acid, you're hedged, but can you let us know how much of it you actually do purchase in U.S. for your U.S. operations?
Kathleen (Executive): It varies, but we do purchase... Some acid in the U.S., we also have, of course, we have the smelter, which provides a base load of acid to our U.S. operations. We have the, we have actually a sulfur burner where we buy sulfur and convert that to acid at our Safford operation. And so it varies what we buy in terms of the amount of acid we buy. But we internally generate a big portion of what's needed in the U.S. And then, of course, in Spain, where we have a smelter, that's all sold externally. And then in Indonesia, we sell acid. And we'll be selling, as Grasberg ramps up, we'll be selling more acid because we will start to operate both smelters in Indonesia. So we're not long. In South America, we do buy acid. And as we said, we don't have a lot of exposure to the spot market at this point in time. But if this continues, we'll have to look at what it means for 2027.
Unknown (BMO Capital Markets): OK, thank you.
Tim the Tanners (Wells Fargo): Hey, good morning. Two questions for me. I wanted to follow up on the grass bird forecast. I know you talked about it being a timing issue, but I just noticed and it's small, but it does look like some of the revisions extend out to 2029. So just wanted some color there. And then pivoting to Peru, if I could, just would be interested in your thoughts on the upcoming political election given your presence at Cerro Verde? Thanks.
Kathleen (Executive): On the Glassburg, the real impact, the real significant impacts were in 26 and 27. We do have a small impact in 28 and 29, but those are really on the margin, there really wasn't any. We don't, we're not projecting any sort of issue related to this material handling issue as we get into those periods. That's just the normal forecasting updates and there's grounding, it's pretty close to where it was.
Tim the Tanners (Wells Fargo): Got it, okay. And then your thoughts on Peru, if I could?
Kathleen (Executive): Well, you know, politically we work with any administration. There's been, as you know, there have been many presidents in Peru in recent years. And so we're prepared to work with any administration that comes in. And we have a really good relationship, which is really important in Peru, with the local communities. We know we have to earn that every day, but that's really important at the local levels as well in Peru as we manage our risk there. Having that relationship and having the partnership that we have on water that we supply to Arequipa has been really positive for Cerro Verde. In terms of changes in administrations, we'll just continue to work, do the right things, and maintain those relationships.