Q1 2026 Earnings Call — May 7, 2026
Analyst Jeff Benry (Craig Hallam): Congrats. Numbers look good. So just a couple questions. Brian, as it relates to the pipeline, can you talk to – you've talked about these pilots coming in, and then obviously customers are getting a sense of Gen 3 and converting. Can you put a little finer point on the quantity of pilots coming in the top of the funnel – Give us a sense of the magnitude of the pipeline, how many have converted, how many are there, how many you've added in this last quarter, any quantification about funnel and particularly pilots.
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, you may have seen this week we had a release on securing our next wave of customers. This was in the scale of a couple dozen. And, you know, we're seeing that momentum really pick up. So they all start with, you know, a six figure type pilots. And you're seeing as a result that moving into seven and eight figure subscription contracts, they're all in different points in the pipeline. So it's difficult to kind of quantify, um, timing and all of that, but, uh, we're just seeing strong momentum and the pipeline's looking good.
If I could follow up on that, is there anything you could share with respect to what I'd call the mega deals? Obviously, you've got a lot of sovereign momentum out there. A number of players in the space are talking about nine-figure deals working through their pipe. Can you give us any sense of the frequency in which you're seeing those and seeing those work through your pipeline?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, I think we announced a $30 million one-year subscription contract. That started with a six-figure pilot project about six months ago. And we are seeing a lot of that type of activity, particularly as customers now have had an opportunity to evaluate Gen 3 performance tied to the operational flexibility, the timeliness, and the quality of the imagery, and how that can integrate into their operations. And so these are major customers. And we're seeing a pretty strong pipeline of those worldwide. It's hard to, again, quantify the timing of some of these deals. But you can see we also announced another large deal as well. So a lot of momentum with these larger contracts.
Yeah, real nice traction on the signings. Just two other quick ones, if I could. Spectra and Analytics, what are you seeing in terms of new customer attach rates on the Analytics side? What do you anticipate based on pipeline?
Executive Brian (Title): Well, Jeff, that's why our pipeline and the conversion rate is going so well. It's not just the attachment rate. It's the fact that all of these things are integrated into the service. So it's highly flexible access to dynamic monitoring and tasking with the AI integrated as part of the service, and then the short delivery timelines, which are really critical to what, as you can imagine, that things are happening around the world today. It's the combination of those three things that has us differentiated in the market and what customers are responding to. And as I mentioned in our remarks, our AI is operational and it is embedded in our customer workflows. And so it's not just a tech demo or some offline processing capability. It's happening in real time and it's delivering real information and intelligence.
Yep, got it. That's helpful. And then just lastly, on Gen 3, I know maybe sometime last year you were thinking eight Gen 3s early-ish in the year. It looks like you're now thinking that later this year, if I caught your comment in the script. Just curious to what extent that influences your ability to book customers, influences your ability to assign incremental revenue if you're capacity-constrained in any way, assuming it doesn't present any gating factors. But we're just kind of trying to figure out how I should think about that capacity and its potential influence on your ability to sign new business. Thanks.
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, Jeff, as I said, we're on track to get eight up this year. The real inflection point, as I'll say, in customer adoption was the performance of Gen 3. I've always said once we have a few up there and get to a daily service, it provides customers a very good experience. So that's now happened. And the growth and what you're seeing in that line of business is not limited by our capacity and we're in good shape this year with what we have and we'll just continue to grow the constellation.
Analyst Timothy Horan (Oppenheimer): It's not compared to what you've done historically and, and, you know, how do you think that's going to ramp? And are there any kind of new areas or new customers that are there surprising you or, you know, new use cases? And any color would be helpful.
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, I mean, the customer sales and adoption cycle is not surprising. You know, we've had very good visibility in our pipeline, and there has been – a lot of interest by a lot of major customers in our Gen 3 capabilities. So now that we're getting over the hump on that and they're getting firsthand experience with it, we're just seeing a natural growth in that business. As we mentioned in our remarks, we announced several large contracts, but we now are expecting the space-based intelligence and AI services, which is our primary subscription business, to grow over 50% this year. This is our high margin business, so you're also seeing how that is translating directly into improving EBITDA margins and performance, particularly because that part of our business is delivering about 80% type gross margins. So no surprises in the sales pipeline. If anything, current events are accelerating opportunities as the demand for this type of capability has never been stronger. And we're in a good position where we're now just converting the pipeline into new contracts.
And can you talk about the sovereign satellite capability or seeing more interest there?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, as I mentioned, we are seeing demand increase. There is major investments happening worldwide in space programs by governments around the world. Uh, uh, we're seeing both, uh, opportunities for large constellations and opportunities related to countries that are just getting started. Uh, we have seen a pickup in interest around gen three cause it's proven, uh, on orbit performance, uh, at this 35 centimeter capability is, uh, is a really important factor as they're looking at other options in the market. And our ability to manufacture Gen 3 at scale and also deliver that under very competitive timelines is an attractive offering. So we have a lot in the pipeline. We're pursuing a number of opportunities and moving them through. And we expect this to be picking up as we go out through the year and into next year.
Lastly, Henry, can you give us a sense of the revenue, quarterly revenue, or maybe exit run rate at the end of the year? How should things pace? Is it linear? Is it hockey stick? Any color there would be helpful.
Executive Henry (Title): Sure, Tim. We'll be following the queue this afternoon in there. You'll see how we've got our backlog. Our backlog, full backlog is about $351 million as of March 31st, but that does not include some of the large contracts that we signed in early April. So that would be total backlog, including those, about $380 million. Of that 380, we would expect about 90 million to be already booked for 2026. There will be some step functions in there, and we've got a lot more pipelines coming in as well. So we do expect the second half of the year to be a much stronger than the first half. And as we go, we do expect to get to that 100 million run rate by the end of the year.
Analyst Edison Yu (Deutsche Bank): Hey, this is Laura for Edison. Thanks for taking our questions. So, firstly, I want to ask about how the Middle East conflicts impacting your growth. Has that led to, like, large increasing usage year-to-date? And how do we see that trend continue?
Executive Brian (Title): I would say, if anything, we've already had a very strong sales pipeline for Gen 3 capability. And you're seeing that we're converting that into long-term subscription contracts. I think, if anything, the conflict in the Middle East is amplifying for other customers the need to lock in long-term contracts for capacity in the event these types of crisis events occur. And that's been traditionally how the market operates is because we serve the national community, national security community, the business is not driven by singular events. It's driven by day-to-day needs for a range of national security missions. So, you know, we don't see ebbs and flows around these events, but if anything, they amplify the importance of entering into these long-term contracts. But also I will say, you know, the capabilities that we have are, do shine in these type of events when you're really trying to, you can see the importance of really rapid and flexible intelligence that these operations need to monitor what's going on.
Okay, got it. Appreciate it. I also want to follow up on your AI efforts. So how should we think about the AI roadmap over the next 12 to 24 months? And what are the priorities there? And would you try to bring some AI partners on either the model side or some cloud platform, et cetera?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, I think the first major point is our AI is a proprietary capability. It was purpose built for real time space-based intelligence. So it's, um, um, it was really designed to operate, uh, in customer workflows at scale and at speed. Uh, so we will continue to expand, uh, over time. The, uh, our ability to not only detect, uh, and classify important, um, objects and things of that nature, but then how we start to see patterns and changes that are important to customers. That's really the bottom line. AI is really just an enabler, but it's really all about providing that actionable intelligence to decision makers at rapid timeline. So we do incorporate a lot of third party technology, but at the core, it's our proprietary capabilities around this mission set that has us leading in the market.
Okay. That's helpful.
Analyst Austin Muller (Canaccord Genuity): Hi. Good morning, Brian and Henry. So just my first question here. Is there a critical mass of Gen 3s that need to be launched in order to get access to more contract dollars from either EOCL or LUNO? Or is it just a matter of the 26 budget being in place and task orders going out now from the program executive offices?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, good morning, Austin. Yeah, I would say our growth in that line of business is not dependent on a rate of launching satellites. We've got a core amount of capacity on orbit. And you have to remember, when combined with Gen 2, you have over 15 satellites up there that are providing dynamic hourly monitoring capabilities. So now that Gen 3 is proven, we're just seeing a ramp in those contracts. More satellites means more capacity and improved frequency and a very high resolution capability. We don't have anything right now that will be triggered by more satellites. We'll just continue to grow.
Okay. And can you comment on how Spectra's AI object classification capabilities compare with some of your peers that have expertise in mapping and data analytics?
Executive Brian (Title): I'll just say that, as I said in my remarks, we are delivering this operationally today. They've been validated by major defense and intelligence customers. So they trust the results that we're delivering and we're constantly improving and refining the training of those algorithms. The models are operational real time. So that's a major differentiator. It's not an offline process. But all I can say is you've seen our performance on Luno in the past and winning contracts because of the performance of our AI. And now you're seeing it working operationally. And I think that should give you a sense of why that capability is winning in the market right now.
Excellent. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Analyst Greg Burns (Sedoti): Just to follow up on the last question around EOCL, does the updated guidance still contemplate revenue levels at their current level where they exited last year, or are you expecting that to build back up to where they were prior to when they were haircut last year?
Executive Henry (Title): Yeah, I think the assumption we have now is they remain at the current levels, the levels we exited last year. There are multiple funding lines that were in the fiscal year 26 budget for commercial imagery that are in the process of being allocated to specific programs and contracts and we're actively following that process. We'll see better visibility um throughout the quarter but for now we've been conservative um assuming the levels we exited the year at um it's also important to note that as we talk about you know we we're seeing the increase now um on that on that business line and uh these large contracts we were winning have significantly diversified our customer base um and, you know, international is now a much larger percentage of our revenues. So we've minimized the impacts of some of the annual budget effects of the U.S. government.
Okay, thank you.
Analyst Sheila Kayalu (Jefferies): Good morning, guys. It's Billy on for Sheila. And thanks for taking the questions. Just to continue on the international side, there's a lot of momentum there. And how do you think about the pipeline and untapped opportunity going forward? And how do we think about progression of current customers expanding versus new customers?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, I think we're seeing growth from a couple of dimensions. We are expanding the revenues with customers we've had for a long time as they start transitioning and scaling the use of Gen 3. So we're seeing that. And then in parallel, we're adding new customers. And I talked about that earlier. And then we're continuing to grow the pipeline to continue bringing a wave of those new customers into service. The other thing I'll mention is the quality of Gen 3 is demanding a higher premium than Gen 2 because of the 35 centimeter capability. So the dollars per sold capacity are increasing. You're seeing an expansion of existing contracts. We're seeing new customers coming online and then the translation of those new customers in small initial pilots transitioning into seven and eight figure type subscriptions. So there's multiple growth factors as we bring new and existing customers into higher levels of service.
Great, thanks. And then just like following up on that, in terms of international mix, like it's higher now. How do we think about that going forward? And how do we think about domestic versus international contributing to the, you know, 50% plus growth for the rest of the year?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, you know, we're, we've assumed the U.S. government EOCL kind of maintains its current level. The majority of the growth is coming internationally. Although we did announce a new subscription contract this quarter from another U.S. government agency. That's leveraging the capacity of our Gen 2 constellation. So we are seeing new opportunities emerging with the U.S. government as well. But the revenue mix will be growing significantly internationally as compared to the U.S. government.
Analyst Chris Quilty (Quilty Space): Thanks. I wanted to follow up on something that was already discussed, just regarding a typical customer journey. Is that, you know, accelerating, slowing down, staying the same? Are there any reasons that you're seeing a change in how quickly they're converting?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, we're seeing an acceleration. As I mentioned, I think getting Gen 3 operational at a daily service level and putting that in the hands of customers to experience that firsthand is driving an increase in the pipeline, and it's increasing the rate at which things are moving through the pipeline. And it's really... It's fundamentally based on the level of service that's available to these customers when combining 35 centimeter imaging with low latency, flexible tasking operations with integrated analytics. That's a first of its kind capability in the market that's giving customers operational intelligence faster than ever and a lot of flexibility in how to leverage that capability across a lot of different mission sets.
So it's not just about the pixels it's about the level of service and how that's being integrated and used in a dynamic environment.
Gotcha so, um, for Henry, I mean you did 16 and a half million in the space based intel and ai in the first quarter which is the average of what you did all last year so obviously to ramp to 100 million you're going to see a significant quarterly step up is that due simply to the contracts you have in backlog and those just you know falling in or is there a higher level of book and ship type business that you expect this year?
Executive Henry (Title): Well thanks Chris, we've got a couple of things that are going to help that step up you recall we just announced that roughly 30 million dollar one year subscription contract. If you take that and divide that by four, you've got a pretty big step up on that one contract alone. That contract we signed in early April, so that should be kicking in here in the second quarter. So then when you take a look at our total backlog, we've got a lot of that already booked, and we've got some additional renewals coming on board as well in the near term. So we feel pretty comfortable on it. We're going to get a step up here in the second quarter, but bigger step ups as we go into the third and fourth.
Gotcha. And remind me, the backlog in terms of the breakdown, I think you said 90 million to ship this year and which business segments that falls across?
Executive Henry (Title): We don't break it down between the different business segments and business elements. But for the most part, a lot of that is Gen 3 subscription. Most of it is Gen 3 subscription.
Gotcha. Brian, also a follow-up on the EOCL. Back when that was awarded like three years ago, I was always under the impression that, you know, the uptake of the revenue, because it didn't have, you know, a material impact at the time, but that the upside to the contract was based on Gen 3 capability being added into the contract. Is that not correct? Are they simply paying on the number of satellites and volume and not on resolution improvement?
Executive Brian (Title): Now, Chris, if you remember when it was originally awarded, 10-year contract, heavily back-end loaded around Gen 3 services that grew over time. So the initial service levels were primarily around Gen 2 capacity. And that was really the subscriptions we've been operating under the last couple of years. Gen 3 is they are looking at integrating gen three into that subscription this year. There's a lot of interest in that. And as I said, we're watching how this, uh, the funding from the fiscal year 26 budget is going to flow through. Um, but, uh, we are at a point with gen three, that that's an attractive offering to the U.S. government. And, you know, we'll have better visibility in that. I think by the time we get through the second quarter, but, um, there's a lot of interest in Gen 3 and the contract is primarily back-end loaded for that capability.
Okay, great. And Brian, you mentioned earlier, you know, the latency of the content delivery and goals to improve it. Can you talk about like what would be your, you know, sort of mid to long-term goals for where you think latency should get? And, you know, does that drive higher revenue as you drive the latency down, or is that just becoming the table stakes of being in this business?
Executive Brian (Title): I think there's two ways to think about it. I think low latency is a requirement these days. We're responding to dynamic events on the ground. And Chris, as you know, this is a purpose-built capability around responsive tactical operations. So to us, it is a required part of the service, and it's what customers are asking for. In addition to the basic commercial service, we also have the ability to directly downlink into customers' environments, and that brings that down into minutes. As well and so what you'll see from us continuing is just a constant improvement in that latency not only in the imagery tasking and delivery timelines but you know as we're processing more and more in ai we're doing that in real time so you know imagine we're interrogating this imagery and looking for objects and activities across a lot of things in parallel. But we see it as really a core part of our offering, and it's what customers are really looking for.
Got it. And maybe if I can, a final question. I know you don't do backlog breakdown, but I'm going to ask you a question on pipeline breakdown. Can you just give us a general sense, when you talk about your business pipeline, either where you're currently seeing the largest area of pipeline or alternatively, where you're seeing the greatest growth in pipeline opportunity?
Executive Brian (Title): I think proportionally, we're seeing growth in all three aspects of our business. We're seeing growth in the pipeline around our space-based intelligence and AI services, as you're seeing that translate into new contract wins. I already talked about the mission solutions pipeline as the demand for sovereign is increasing and we're seeing an acceleration of those types of programs. And we're also seeing a lot of interest in the advanced technology programs. As you know, Chris, you know, as well as anybody, space is a long game. And so customers are understanding that it's not only about what you have now, but where this is going to be in the future in the next three to five years. So we're seeing a step up in that part of it as well. And we see that as a key part of our strategy is leveraging those investments and then translating that into the innovation and a leadership position in our space portfolio. So we're seeing growth across all three aspects of the sales pipeline.
All right. Great. Thanks, guys.
Analyst Scott Buck (Titan Partners): Hi. Good morning, guys, and thanks for letting me jump on. I think most of my questions have been answered, but just one. Brian, as demand for sovereign increases, are you seeing more?
Executive Brian (Title): I think, yeah, there are a lot of – there is increasing competition, but they're from a number of companies that have really not demonstrated proven operational performance. And as I mentioned in my remarks – Having a capability like Gen 3 that is delivering the quality of 35 centimeter imaging at the level of performance that we're seeing, and then having that on orbit and proven and operational at the economics of that spacecraft is a really compelling proposition for customers. As you know, these types of customers aren't going to risk their long-term roadmaps on unproven space capability and so we feel like we have a very good advantage there. Gen 3 worked right out of the box and it has been exceeding expectations and that is giving customers a lot of confidence in our ability to support their long-term program so we feel we're really well positioned. There are not Gen 3 is a best-in-class capability, and we're seeing that in the opportunities that are coming at us.
Perfect. Well, that's all I have, guys. I appreciate the time. Thank you.
Analyst Preston Graham (StoneGate): Hey, guys. Good morning. Preston's sitting in for Dave. You touched in the prepared remarks on land and expand. And so I guess for customers and pilot programs for Gen 3, are most using the broader, full analytics suite from the beginning, or do they typically start with imagery and then expand into analytics over time?
Executive Brian (Title): Yeah, good morning, Preston. Yeah, I think the way you have to think about it is they have access to a platform, and that platform has a lot of different capability that they can tap into. And so they can task imagery from Gen 2 and Gen 3 satellites. They can also, as part of that tasking operation, request different types of AI-enabled analytics as part of the natural workflows. So what we typically see is customers start with the basic operations, which is dynamic tasking. And then as they integrate that, then they start adding the AI analytics as part of the service. I think it's an important comment in that it's a full service offering that we have through the platform. And again, that's not typical in the market. So that's another factor that's driving the increase in our demand and the customer traction.
Got it. So you wouldn't even say it's not like 35 centimeters. The quality of the imagery is the main driver. It's the platform. It's the whole suite. It's all of it. It's all of it. 35 centimeter is an important aspect because very high resolution matters. The more resolution you have, the better insights you get from the imagery, but also the level of analytics you can extract with AI goes up as well. So but I'll also say timeliness matters and time diverse collection throughout the day matters as well. So it's a combination of all those things. And keep in mind, you know, just a few years ago, this went from really commercial being mapping capabilities to now we're in dynamic monitoring with real time intelligence from space. So it's a major paradigm shift around our purpose built capabilities.
Understood. And then maybe just one final one. You've talked about in the past kind of vertical integration gives you better visibility into production and deployment. Are there any kind of current supply chain constraints that could impact Gen 3 production or launch timing or still feeling good about the roadmap?
Executive Brian (Title): As I said, we're on track. We did bring Lea Stella into the company over a year ago now to improve our visibility into supply chain and streamline production operations. That's going very well. We have ordered long-lead supply components so that we can maintain a regular cadence of production of Gen 3. And through that cadence of production, we can use those satellites to expand our commercial constellation or accelerate deliveries on mission solutions contracts which is a competitive advantage in the market so the vertical integration we've achieved is paying off and you're going to see that scale as we move throughout the year and in the next year.
Got it. Thank you for taking my questions.
Executive Management: There are no further questions
at this time.
This concludes today's call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect.