Q1 2026 Earnings Call — May 11, 2026
Analyst Name (Firm): Chris Scholl (UBS) Executive Name (Title): Management
Now that you've had a few weeks to digest, can you just walk us through what happened with Bluebird 7 and what gives you comfort? This will not repeat going forward, and that new one can scale accordingly. And last quarter, you mentioned you began to integrate your satellites with another heavy launch vehicle, and I believe I heard you say ULA earlier. Where does the integration process stand, and could we see you rely upon them this year? Is this more a consideration for 27 and beyond? Thank you.
Executive Name (Title): Management
So, you know, we were pretty open on Bluebird 7, you know, the day of. You know, we knew what happened immediately, and we were very open on what it is. And at the end of the day, remember, we have 333 satellites in advanced stage of production at the factory. So while it was a loss, we're on to the next. So, yeah, I would say that we're working closely with Blue. They're working through the investigation. An upper stage anomaly like this is not uncommon early in programs. And, you know, we feel optimistic about them getting back to the pad soon. When you look at their cadence for the year, you know, we all know that they landed their booster, which was a great milestone for their cadence. And now they have two boosters, you know, sitting in their integration facility ready to get into the cycle. So we think the outlook there looks good. And like I said, we're optimistic. And on the second part of the question, you know, we mentioned that we have contracts with SpaceX and Blue Origin and others. We're also doing some integration activities in there with others to get ready for potential launches. And so, listen, we've designed the rocket, as you know, in our business strategy to be launch vehicle agnostic, and we're buyers of launch and across the entire heavy launcher footprint. So we were prepared for this years ago with our strategy. We think we selected the right partners, and we've got good partners on top of that that we're working with.
Analyst Name (Firm): Scott Searle (Rath Capital Partners) Executive Name (Title): Management
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just a quick follow-up. Is there a timeline associated with the FAA investigation of when you would expect that to be concluded? And then looking to the expected commercial launch of services at the end of this year, how many M&Os are you expecting to be live at launch? And what are you guys thinking about in terms of the ground station number that we should be expecting by the end of calendar 26th?
Executive Name (Title): Management
So the first part of the question on Blue, no, there hasn't been a publicly disclosed timeline. But like I said, these sorts of investigations are pretty commonplace. And there's been some, you know, good track record recently. So with other launchers, we've had similar issues. So, listen, we think we're really focused on our next launch, obviously, with Falcon 9 and the next three Bluebirds. But like I said, we're optimistic with Blue Origin. And I think, you know, we'll be in a good position there. But as you know, we have a multi-launcher strategy. That's been the strategy from the get-go. And in terms of – what was the second question again, Scott?
Oh, Scott, just in terms of the number of MNOs you would expect to be live with, you know, provided you've got 45 satellites up in the sky in the fourth quarter, you know, how many carriers, how many covered subs should we be thinking about in terms of – that are adjustable from day one of launch?
Well, it's a global network, as you know. So we put a lot more disclosure in our remarks today about the regions we're focused on and the countries we're focused on. So all in all, where we are currently doing ground integration efforts, some which are quite advanced, like in the United States and other countries in Europe, some others that are getting started. It's a pipeline. There's a lot of countries to focus on. But just on the countries listed in our deck, you see a population coverage of about 2.9 billion. So in terms of how we prioritize amongst that, you've heard from us before, key markets like the U.S., Canada, U.K., Japan, Saudi. So we're looking at that list, and it's growing every day, but we wanted to give a little bit more incremental detail today with that in our deck and in our remarks on the other countries we're focused on.
Analyst Name (Firm): Michael Funk (Bank of America) Executive Name (Title): Management
Yeah, great. Thank you for the question. So I want to go back to the launch target. I think you talked last quarter about stacking up to eight satellites per launch. And so just wondering about the hurdles, authorizations required to get to the eight. And then, Abel, earlier in the call, you mentioned – you know, deploying AI edge computing features, I think, in the next generation of satellite. And I want to get a better understanding of how that's going to improve either the efficiency or performance of next generation satellites.
Executive Name (Title): Management
Let me answer the first question. As I explained earlier in the call, we do have now the technology that we are manufacturing that at rate, which is basically the technology to be able to stack multiple launches, multiple satellites in a single launch. The way that we do it is basically on New Glenn, we can stack up to eight. In Vulcan, we can stack up to five. And in Falcon 9, we can stack up to three. And this is self-contained. The structure is full compulsive. It is manufactured under an IP. We are also growing. We have over a thousand people dedicated to build these structures where they're very, very difficult to build and test. But we are now very close to getting six of them every month and being able to stack it with each of the different launch partners.
To your second question about AI, we are not in the play of hyperscaler systems in space, but what we are incorporating to our satellites, which you will start seeing in the production batches towards the end of the year, is the ability to edge compute and load AI capabilities on board that can be very efficiently integrated also to the UEs for a variety of uses around AI. And if you relate to AI spectrum management, basically as you fly, you have resources to do to administrate dynamically basically power and spectrum. As you know, we can tune within 1100 megahertz of the spectrum and then we have blocks of the spectrum with our MNO partners that's called IMT spectrum that we can tune country by country, location by location.
And also we had our MSS, and the AI Spectrum Management is a system behind all of that that basically predict traffic, predict location, predict where people are, and then allocate that very, very intelligently. Remember, on a satellite, you have 2,800 square kilometers of view of what's going on underneath you, and AI basically has the ability to predict where the traffic will be as the satellites move and dynamically allocate resources into the satellite. That's typically the power or a spectrum. And the end result of that is that the perceived use of perception of what amount of spectrum it is used and how efficient it is, it is a multiple. So you basically can play with the whole field of view in how you allocate dynamically the spectrum square kilometer by square kilometer.
Analyst Name (Firm): Mike Crawford (B-Rally Securities) Executive Name (Title): Management
Thank you. Just to clarify, with the AST5000 ASIC, that's been expected to enable 120 megabits per second peak data speeds, but is it the AI spectrum management that gets you up closer to 200 megabits per second by year end? And then also on the non-communications capabilities that you're developing in conjunction with the SDA, would we be correct in assuming we're talking about mid-band military radars, so that's something that we're not going to see with the initial Bluebirds that are launching now, but once you incorporate L-band and, excuse me, S-band into the satellites?
Executive Name (Title): Management
Let me talk with the defense capability. I will not be able to describe it on this forum, but basically it's a non-communication capability that uses the same hardware that we use on our commercial satellites. And that's being used today. And as Scott mentioned, they're using it today. They plan to extend practically how they use it. And that is a non-communication application for defense purposes. And before we leave that topic, Mike, it's important to note that that does not require mid-band spectrum. That's something we can do with low-band spectrum, which we've deployed today, right?
Correct. Then as it relates to the ASIC, the ASIC is complete. It's been incorporated into the production line. The ASIC basically allowed us to upgrade the amount of bandwidth we can manage for each satellite. So on the FPGA satellites, we had a run of one gigahertz of a spectrum. With the ASIC satellite, we have 10 gigahertz of a spectrum. So it's a factor of 10 increase in number of gigahertz that can be constantly used per satellite. The big data rates are actually not dependent on the FPGA or ASIC. That's how many of those connections you can have simultaneously. And do not rely on the AI in order to get to the 100 megabits per second that we have on an FPGA satellites that are actually the smaller initial satellites. And we expect to double the 98 megabits per second that we have as we are using the BB6, which is already orbit and the A9 and 10 that we will launch here very quickly. That will not require the ASIC or the AI management and that's pure big data rate per cell. The AI management is basically, it's a way to intelligently distribute that big pipe of 10 gigahertz or one gigahertz, depending on the version of the satellite, intelligently where the users are and predicting where the users are going to be in order to allocate a slide of that 10 gigahertz where the traffic is needed. And do it dynamically and proactively using an AI engine of our own.
Analyst Name (Firm): Brian Graf (Deutsche Bank) Executive Name (Title): Management
Hi. Good afternoon. Apologies for the multi-part kind of long question, but I really had a few questions I wanted to ask you around launch. I guess first, do you have contracted launch capacity to do an average of basically one launch per month from June through December? I think that's what you need to do in order to get close to that 45 number. And then how diversified is the launch mix? And what if you can only do, say, one more New Glenn launch this year? Could you still get close to that 45 number? You know, I don't know if this is the first time I think you've mentioned Vulcan. So I was wondering, you know, how much launch you were able to secure there and if that could fill that gap in. And then it sounds like you've made great progress on the manufacturing side. With 11 through 33 in production, is the next batch of satellites going to be ready to ship for, say, a July launch? And then the last thing I wanted to ask you about is on the stacking, do you sort of need to work your way up to the max of those ranges? In other words, you know, on the next new blend, can you go right to eight or do you have to or would you prefer to say do three or four to make sure it goes smoothly and then, you know, five to six and then go to seven to eight? Or are you just going to kind of fill these things up going forward?
Executive Name (Title): Management
So, yes, we do have contracted launch capacity to meet our target for 2026. And the way to think about it is basically, you know, a handful of Blue Origin launches and a handful of SpaceX or equivalent launches. And that's what gets us to the approximately 45. You know, we know that Blue Origin just suffered an anomaly, right? But we're optimistic about their return to the pad and the fact that they have two boosters is a massive support for the cadence that we have always expected and that we have contracted. So that's how we think about the mix and how we get to that 45 number. On the manufacturing side, we definitely have capacity to keep knocking out launches one after another, absolutely. You can see that on the page in the deck. So given where we are, we expect to have more satellites each month to be ready for launch. And we'll, of course, as we have, update the public, you know, 30 to 60, 90 days ahead of launch as those are down selected and confirmed. And then on stacking, I think you pretty much captured it, Brian. I mean, we expect on the next New Glenn we'll launch four satellites.
Part of that is kind of ramping into the stacking capability and also, of course, managing where they are in the program. But, you know, we're very mature now in the three-stack, and we're going to be doing that very shortly, and the four-stack likely shortly thereafter. And then, yeah, six, seven, eight, you know, that's how we get to our constellation size, right? That's why we've selected the vehicles we have and plan to make use of as much of the capacity of each of the rockets as we have available.
Analyst Name (Firm): Brian Graf (Deutsche Bank) Executive Name (Title): Management
If I could just ask one follow-up, where does ULA fit into that? You mentioned a handful of Luarge and a handful of SpaceX. Is Vulcan sort of the backup, or are you going to use them as well? Just curious, you know, why that came into the conversation today.
Executive Name (Title): Management
Our strategy has always been to have many launch providers, right, and so I put that in that category. We've been developing other heavy launch providers for some time, and we'll have more updates as appropriate. But right now, you know, we plan to use Blue Origin and SpaceX in equivalence to the MAX.
Analyst Name (Firm): Louie DePalma (William Blair) Executive Name (Title): Management
Good afternoon, Abel, Scott, and Andy. Abel and Scott and Andy, what do you view as the impact of Amazon's acquisition of GlobalStar? And do you view any potential partnership opportunities with Amazon as they seem to be very much in the early stages of entering this industry?
Executive Name (Title): Management
Listen, that's a complicated transaction in the sense that that capacity and that capability, it is already on the phones through the iPhones. Basically, we see that capability as a SOS emergency system. Our focus is broadband. Our focus is, of course, that broadband will come as we enable spectrum in a combination of our partner spectrum in low-band and then later our mid-band low-band spectrum in the L-band. We see that that's a complete different proposition and different. And quite frankly, nobody is nowhere close to the capability that we have technically to deliver hundreds of megabits directly to a phone from something that is flying at 70,000 miles per hour, 500 kilometers above you. And that competitive advantage of that capability is unique, and that's what we make available to our MNO partners.
Analyst Name (Firm): Louie DePalma (William Blair) Executive Name (Title): Management
And another question. I'm following up on the trial that was announced this morning that generated the peak downlink of 99 megabits per second. Do you have a sense of what the average downlink would look like for Block 2 satellites when you and your partners launch the trial later this year?
Executive Name (Title): Management
I think the... Talking about peak and average is tricky because it also depends on what is transiting through the applications on the phone. So that's why we tend to focus on peak. But the peak data rate for our larger BB6, which is in orbit, and A9 and 10, it is approximately double of what we disclosed this morning. So you're talking about closer to the 200 megabits per second. And that's big. And average, it depends where you're transiting, is it small packages, packages, or large packages, and how you interact. But in terms of network capacity, it's pretty much double of what we disclosed this morning, around double of what we disclosed this morning.
Analyst Name (Firm): Chris Quilty (Quilty Space) Executive Name (Title): Management
Thanks, guys. I just wanted to do a quick follow-up on the noncommunication satellite effort on the defense side. You know, since your satellites were specifically designed as a communication platform, does that imply that you're going to have to do, you know, large redesign of satellites and adding things like optical crosslinks and onboard processing and pointing mechanisms? Or, and if so, is that something that would be customer, you know, NRE funded or something that, you know, you're putting the capital for?
Executive Name (Title): Management
I mean, we didn't start working with our department of work this year, not even last year. This has been many, many, many, many years in the coming. So all the capabilities that they require are already built in, in what we are producing on the line. There will be additions after the request that are not – permitted to discuss, but basically the core capability of what they're using, it was incorporated many years back.
Analyst Name (Firm): Chris Quilty (Quilty Space) Executive Name (Title): Management
Speaking of government defense budgets, assuming the administration gets through this reconciliation package, there's a huge generational budget increase. Can you name the specific programs where you think AST has an opportunity to target? or are you expecting that most of your opportunities are going to be on the classified side?
Executive Name (Title): Management
It is a combination, and a lot related, as the government has made it public by themselves, around the Golden Dome. But we are basically a... in all aspects of government usage were present from FirstNet, from the classified to all the way to the golden dome. So for communication and non-communication capabilities. We see ourselves as a very important asset to our government, multi-utility. And as I said, this has been years developing for them that use it today and respect a very significant growth in revenue and opportunity in all aspects of government usage of our technology.
Analyst Name (Firm): Greg Pendi (ClearStreet) Executive Name (Title): Management
Hey, guys, just a real quick one. When you do hit 45 satellites on the launch side, what is the commissioning time period we should be thinking about until sort of deactivation with service with MNOs?
Executive Name (Title): Management
Currently, you know, we do it on the first satellite. I mean, these satellites are the largest satellite space arrays ever deployed, so it took longer than it would take on the coming satellite. So the target is 45 days. That's what we are planning with the MNOs. Every time that we launch in 45 days, we should be using either 5G or 4G connectivity through them. But as we keep launching, we plan to reduce that timeframe to 45 days all the way down to two weeks. We don't want to promise that in the early batches of satellites.
Analyst Name (Firm): Greg Pendi (ClearStreet) Executive Name (Title): Management
As you're looking at this multi-launch strategy plan and adding, you know, new launch partners, any thoughts if Neutron from Rocket Labs is available in 2027 on what type of capacity and if that would be a potential other partner in the launch strategy?
Executive Name (Title): Management
Hey, yeah, we're not going to comment on, you know, other launch providers, but you've heard our commentary today about who we're looking at. But we like launch providers. We like to launch with them. Our satellites are designed to fit in all the standard five-meter fairings and larger ones as well. So I think that's what we'll say
at this time.
Executive Name (Title): Management
Thank you, Operator. We want to thank all of our shareholders and research analysts for joining the call. Really appreciate it. Have a great week. Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines
at this time.
We thank you for your participation.