Q4 2025 Earnings Call — February 5, 2026
Mark Mahaney (Evercore ISI): On the strong long-term return on invested capital, I think that's the debate in the market today. So could you give us a little bit more insight into that? How do you think investors will be able to see that? Either talk about the duration of the CapEx cycle that you're going through now or what we should see in terms of profitability levels, and maybe also talk about other de minimis or minimum free cash flow generation levels that you don't want to go below as you go through this CapEx cycle. Just help us get to your level of confidence in having a strong long-term return on that invested capital. Thank you.
Executive (Title): Yeah, sure, Mark. Thank you. I'll start from a financial side. So on the investments we're making, as Andy said earlier, you know, we are putting into service with customers all capacity that we're getting, and it's immediately useful. And we're also seeing a long arc of additional revenue that we see from other customers and backlog and commitments of people who are anxious to make with us, especially for AI services. So you can see that's working its way into our P&L, both through CapEx and also through our operating margin in AWS. AWS is 35% operating margin through Q4, up 40 basis points year over year. As we talked about before, that is going to fluctuate over time. It certainly has a headwind from the investments in AI and the depreciation on that CapEx, but we also work very hard to offset that with efficiencies and cost reductions. So we'll see how that develops over time. So, but yeah, we see long, strong return on invested capital, see strong demand for these services, and we continue to like the investments in this area.
I would add to that, you know, if you look at the capital we're spending and intend to spend this year, it's predominantly in AWS and some of it is for our core workloads, which are non-AI workloads, because they're growing at a faster rate than we anticipated. But most of it is in AI. And we just have a lot of growth and a lot of demand. When you're growing 24% year over year with an annualized revenue run rate of $142 billion, you're growing a lot. And what we're continuing to see is as fast as we install this capacity, this AI capacity, we are monetizing it. It's just a very unusual opportunity. As I've shared a lot of times, I passionately believe that every customer experience that we know of today is going to be reinvented. With AI, there are going to be a whole bunch of customer experiences that none of us ever imagined that are going to become the norms of how we all operate every day and what we use. I think the other thing is that if you really want to use AI in an expansive way, you need your data in the cloud and you need your applications in the cloud. Those are all big tailwinds pushing people towards the cloud.
So we're going to invest aggressively here and we're going to invest to be the leader in this space as we have been for the last number of years. We have, I think, a fair bit of experience over the years in AWS of forecasting demand signals and doing it in such a way that we don't have a lot of wasted capacity and that we also have enough capacity to serve the demand that's there. And I think we've also proven with AWS over the years in how we build data centers and how we run them and how we invent in there. If you think about our chips and our hardware, our networking gear, and how we've invented Empower, that this isn't some sort of quixotic top line grab. We have confidence that these investments will yield strong returns and invested capital. We've done that with our core AWS business, and I think that will very much be true here as well. And I think some of the things that you will see over time in the AI space is you're going to keep seeing all the inference services, which is going to be the majority of the long-term AI workloads is going to be inference. You're going to see the inference keep getting optimized. You're going to see higher utilization on those services.
You'll see prices normalize over a period of time. And then I think the companies that have not just the excellence in infrastructure, but also the components that give customers better price performance and give those companies themselves better economics are going to have advantaged financials. And I think if you look, we're already off to a really good start having Tranium underneath the majority of our Bedrock service. And that's not just giving customers better prices, but it also gives us better economics. And so we see that following the same sorts of patterns we saw in the early days of our core AWS investment. I'm very confident we're going to have strong return on invested capital here.
Doug Anmuth (JPMorgan): Can you just talk about how Project Rainier is running with Anthropic after its first full quarter? And I think in the release it talks about 500,000 chips, but a few months ago you talked about getting to a million as well. So if you could clarify that. And then maybe just to follow up on Mark's question, are there any financial guardrails or governors in place that we should think about around the spend just in terms of operating income growth or positive free cash flow? Thanks.
Executive (Title): Yeah, I'll start with the Tranium piece. We are very excited about the growth that we see in Tranium and the future that we have there. You know, I think if you look at what's happened in the early innings of AI over the first few years, you see a lot of usage. But customers are really thirsty for better price performance. Tranium has 30% to 40% better price performance than comparable GPUs. So it's very compelling to customers. You mentioned Project Rainier. Anthropic is building their next, they're training the next cloud model on top of Tranium 2.0. And that's what Project Rainier is. We talked about 500,000 chips there. You will see that continuing to increase. They're also using a fair bit of Tranium 2 for other workloads and their own APIs beyond just Project Rainier. But Tranium is a multi-billion dollar annualized run rate business at this point. And it's fully subscribed. And what you're also seeing is Tranium 3, which is the next version of training which we just started shipping that's 40% more price performance than training 2.
And we have a very substantial amount of interest there, we expect that nearly all that supply will be committed by somewhere around the middle of this year. And we're just in the process of building training for, there's very substantial interest in training for which is coming in 2027 and we're already having conversations about training five. So there is a lot of interest in Tranium at this point. I think people know about our chips capability, our chips business, but I'm not sure folks realize how strong a chips company we've become over the last 10 years. If you look at what we've done with Tranium, if you look at what we've done with Graviton, which is our CPU chip, which is about 40% better price performance than comparable x86 processors, 90% of the top 1,000 AWS customers are using Graviton very expansively. If you combine training and Graviton, it's well over a $10 billion annualized run rate business, and it's still very early there. So I'm very optimistic about what we're seeing. The Project Rainier has gone very well. I think Anthropic is quite pleased with it. We've learned a lot in the process as well, but it's early days with what's possible here.
This is a big business that's getting bigger and has a lot of potential. And I just, you know, I'd briefly comment on your second question that, you know, we are, as I mentioned, this is what, you know, I think this is an extraordinarily unusual opportunity to forever change the size of AWS and Amazon as a whole. I think it also is an extraordinary opportunity for companies to change all their customer experiences and for startups to be able to build brand new experiences and businesses that would have taken much longer to try to accomplish before that they can do right now. And so we see this as an unusual opportunity and we are going to invest aggressively here to be the leaders. Cause I, you know, like we've been the last number of years and like, I think we will be moving forward. Thank you.
Ross Sandler (Barclays): Andy, you mentioned a few calls back how the AI market was currently a bit top heavy with a lot of the spend kind of clustering around a few of the AI native labs. So how is that changing as you look out into 26? And specifically, how do you think you might extend your relationship with a company like OpenAI to maybe help Amazon's AI efforts both on the retail side and the AWS side? Thanks a lot.
Executive (Title): Yeah. The way I would describe what we see right now in the AI space is it's really kind of a barbelled market demand where on one end you have the AI labs who are spending gobs and gobs of compute right now along with what I would consider a couple runaway applications. And then at the other side of the barbell, you've got a lot of enterprises who are getting value out of AI in doing productivity and cost avoidance types of workloads. These are things like customer service or business process automation or some of the fraud pieces. And then in that middle of the barbell are all the enterprise production workloads. And I would say that the enterprises are in various stages at this point of evaluating how to move those, working on moving those, and then putting them into production. But I think that middle part of the barbell very well may end up being the largest and the most durable. And I would put in the middle of that barbell too, by the way, I would put just the altogether brand new businesses and applications that companies build that right from the get-go run in production on top of AI.
And so I think that, you know, to me, when I look at this, what's happening, it's kind of unbelievable if you look at the demand of what you're seeing already with AI, but the lion's share of that demand is still yet to come in the middle of that barbell. And that will come over time. It will come as you have more and more companies with AI talent, as more and more people get educated with that AI background, as inference continues to get less expensive. And that's a big piece of what we're trying to do with training them in our hardware strategy. And, you know, and as companies start to have success in moving those workloads to, you know, further and further success and moving those workloads to run on top of AI. So I think there's, it's just a huge opportunity. It's still in the relative early stages, even though it's growing at a very unprecedented clip as we've talked about. And then I think, how do we see our relationships extending with other companies like OpenAI? I would tell you that this movement and what's happening in AI, it's very broad. It's going to be a lot of companies. It is a lot of companies already.
There's a number of AI labs, but almost every company you talk to, almost every conversation we have on the AWS side starts with AI. We have very significant relationships with a lot of different companies. I think we announced an agreement with OpenAI in November. We're excited about that agreement. It's a big one. We have a lot of respect for the company, and we hope to continue to extend our partnership over time. But this AI movement is not going to be a couple companies. It's going to be thousands of companies over time. Thank you.
Michael Morton (Moffitt Nathanson): This one's on the retail business. Andy, you've talked about how you're passionate. This is going to change experiences across the board. And you've shared some encouraging data points on Rufus. And we're seeing all the other internet platforms roll out agentic protocols. I would love to see how you think this plays out for the retail business and the onsite ads portion of the retail business is what seems like it could be a compression in the funnel as consumers get better answers over time. Anything there would be great. Thank you.
Executive (Title): I'm very optimistic about the customer experience that will ultimately be what customers use for agentic shopping. And I think it's good for customers. I think it's going to make it easier for them. It's a big piece of why we've invested as significantly as we have in our own shopping assistant in Rufus. And if you haven't checked out Rufus recently, I really encourage you to do so. It's gotten much, much better and keeps getting better every month. We have about 300 million customers who use Rufus in 2025. Customers who use Rufus are about 60% more likely to complete a purchase. And so you're seeing a lot of usage of it and a lot of growth, and I think it's very useful. And I think at the same time, we will have relationships with third-party horizontal agents that can enable shopping as well. We have to collectively figure out a better customer experience. It's still... these horizontal agents don't have any of your shopping history. They get a lot of the product details wrong. They get a lot of the pricing wrong. And so we have to try to find a customer experience together that's better and a value exchange to make sense for both parties.
But I'm very hopeful that we'll get there over time. We continue to have a number of conversations. And then I think you're going to have to look at, as time goes on, which types of which shopping agents are consumers going to use. And it kind of reminds me in some ways of the early days of kind of all the search engines that were referring traffic to retailers. And it's still a relatively small portion of the overall traffic and sales. But of that fraction, you have to ask how many consumers are going to prefer using a horizontal agent where it's kind of a middle person between the retailer and the consumer versus wanting to use a great agent from that retailer that has all its shopping history and that has all the data right there and makes it easy if you're just spearfishing for something to shop for it right there. Or if you want to do discovery, you can do it there and it's got the best data on shopping. I think a lot of customers are ultimately going to choose to use a great shopping agent from that retailer. Because if you think about what consumers really want in retail and a retailer, they want really broad selection. They want low prices. They want really fast delivery.
And then they want a retailer that they can trust and that takes care of them. And I think horizontal agents are pretty good at aggregating selection, but retailers are much better at doing all four of those items. And so I'm very optimistic that people will use our shopping agent. It's off to a great start. I also expect that we'll work with other third-party agents over time as we work on the issues I mentioned earlier. Thank you.
Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley): I want to ask you one about the global retail business this year. I know there's a lot of areas of investment in it that you're talking about to sort of make, improve the service, make it more durable over the long term, et cetera. But I'm assuming there are also sources of efficiency you expect to see this year. Can you sort of help us understand both sides of the ledger on retail this year? Where are some of the areas where you see the potential for sources of efficiency and cost to serve savings? And then where should we be thinking about the areas of investment to sort of drive more durable growth, you know, robotics, et cetera, how does that sort of break down?
Executive (Title): Yeah. So I would say, um, on the side of continuing to invest, to keep growing the retail business, the kind of core drivers of demand continue to be the same. We're going to work really hard to expand selection. And you've seen what we've done over the last several years. The expansion of selection has been broad. And you'll see it on both ends of the spectrum. We have a lot more of those luxury brands that have built presences in Amazon had success and found that we could manage their brand presentation the right way. And they've been very happy. I mean, you only have to look at L'Oreal as an example too, just how fast that business is growing and how happy our partners have been. And at the same time, we are working really hard to continue to expand the amount of everyday essentials that we offer our customers. ==The growth in everyday essentials in our business is really remarkable, as I mentioned in my opening comments.
One out of three units now that we move are everyday essentials.== What we find there is that the more the customers can rely on us for everyday essentials and the lower ASP items, they choose to do more of their downstream shopping with us in every way. We're just more front of mind. Yeah, I think a big piece of why we have captured more and more of those everyday essentials, and you see it also in our grocery business with perishables too, is just our speed of delivery improvements over the last three years has been really market. I mean, it's customers, it's the one thing I get stopped on the street most often about, which is I just can't believe how quickly from when I order something, I get it to my door and how reliable you are. I think, you know, along that story, speed of delivery piece, it's also quite interesting what's happening with quick commerce. And we have this offering called Amazon Now that we've largely started outside the U.S. and India and the UAE and Mexico that gets thousands of items to customers within 30 minutes. And it really is, it's quite interesting how quickly that is growing.
And I think that it's just another one of those things like everyday essentials that when you're able to order more and more from Amazon, you just think of Amazon first if it's a great experience that we're offering for whatever you're looking for. But if you look in India, which is the place we've rolled out QuickCommerce the fastest, customers who try QuickCommerce are shopping with triple the frequency than they did before they tried us at QuickCommerce. So those are all areas I think are pretty excited that we're expanding. You'll see us continue to expand what we're doing on the perishable side too, which we're quite excited about. And, you know, we are able to deliver perishables same day in thousands of cities around the world now. And the cities in which we have those perishables available, nine of the 10 top items that are ordered in that geography are perishables. So we're just having a lot of success with that too. And people buy perishables from us. After they buy perishables, they're shopping with us twice as frequently. So a lot of good things to like there.
And then, you know, on the efficiencies, we are, I mean, we always have a very long list of these that we're working on, Brian. And, you know, it's true today as well. Like if you look even, you know, I mentioned, I talked a lot about regionalization earlier in our fulfillment network and particularly in the U.S. you know, over the last couple of years. And I said, we weren't done honing that. And that's true. It's just, we, you know, we don't talk about it every time, but if you look at what we've done there, we've extended the number of regions, you know, it was eight, it's now 10. We've extended regionalization to what we do with our inbound delivery to be much more efficient, being able to get more items closer to customers more quickly. You know, we have made a lot of, we're doing a lot of work and we've made a huge amount of progress in being able to get more units into each box. And as we're able to get more units into each box, it obviously saves shipments and we drive better operating income when we do that. And we've made very significant progress there, but have a lot more planned.
It's part of, by the way, that improvement is part of what helps us do things like I was talking about earlier in adding to a delivery in near real time. And then, you know, robotics, as you mentioned, is another big one for us. You know, we have over a million robots today in our fulfillment network. They take care of all sorts of functions, but still a fraction of what I think we're going to be able to enable over time, which will allow our, you know, we'll always have a lot of people that we employ in our fulfillment network, but they'll leave to the robotics things that you know that are more repetitive so it's better productivity for the business more safe for teammates and there's real cost efficiencies in that as well, so a lot on both sides of the ledger as always. Thank you.
Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs): Maybe a few parts just on AWS. Can you speak to the current state of your revenue backlog as of Q4 and also discuss a little bit about what you see both for internal use cases and external client needs with respect to any imbalance between supply and demand around AI efforts and how you think about closing the gap on those as more capacity comes online through 2026? Thank you.
Executive (Title): Yeah, that's a lot of parts. I'll start with the first one, which is on backlog. Our backlog is $244 billion. That's up 40% year over year. I think it's up 22% quarter over quarter. We have a lot of deals that are in the pipeline. As I mentioned earlier, there is a lot of demand for AWS right now in the AI space and also in the core AWS space. Your second question was internal and external use cases. And then the impact around supply and demand. You know, the vast majority of our customers, the capital that we spend and the capacity that we have is consumed by external customers. Amazon has always been a very large AWS customer, a very helpful AWS customer because they're very demanding and they use the services very expansively and stretch the limits as we launch things. They've always been a very important big customer, but always a very small fraction of the total. And that's true today in AI as well as the overall AWS business. Internally, we have all sorts of ways that we are using AI. We have over a thousand AI applications that we've either deployed or in the process of building.
And they range from our shopping assistant in Rufus that we were just talking about, to Alexa Plus, which is a really large-scale generative AI application, to applications in our fulfillment network that allow us to have more accurate forecasting predictions, to how we do customer service in our customer service chatbot, to how we are making it much easier for brands to create advertisements and to optimize all their campaigns across the full funnel of advertising options we have. In live sports, if you watch Thursday Night Football, you can see defensive alerts which predict which player is going to blitz or pocket health. In every one of our businesses, you see a very broad use of AI to improve the customer experience and in many cases just to completely reinvent what was possible before. I mean, it's pretty neat to use something like lens where you know you may see something you want to buy you can just take a picture of it in the app and it finds the item on the detail page you buy it one click it's kind of magic.
You know externally, I would say, you know, it's kind of what I said earlier, you have AI labs consuming lots and lots of capacity, both for training as well as for the inference and the research across what they're doing with their different applications and models. We see enterprises, all sorts of workloads, customer service automation, business process automation, fraud, completely reinventing their applications, agentic coding applications, legal applications. Suno is a really cool example of an AWS customer that's kind of reinvented how you can write music and build music. So really across the board. And I just think on the supply and demand, what I would tell you is we're growing 24% year over year on $142 billion annualized run rate business. So we're growing at really an unprecedented rate. I think every provider would tell you, including us, that we could actually grow faster if we had all the supply that we could take. And so we are being incredibly scrappy around that. If you look in the last 12 months, we added 3.9 gigawatts of power.
Just for perspective, that's twice what we had in 2022 when we were an $80 billion annual run rate business. We expect to double it again by the end of 27. We added 1.2 gigawatts of power in Q4, just quarter of a quarter. So it's, so we, you know, we are, our team is being aggressive and scrappy and inventive and adding capacity as fast as we can. I, you know, we'll add a lot more in 26 and 27 and 28 for that matter. And, um, and we're very optimistic we can continue to grow in the ballpark of what we have. Thanks for joining us on the call today and for your questions. A replay will be available on our investor relations website for at least three months. We appreciate your interest in Amazon and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.